Member Info for TakingMyTime

They have to be because they are paid by GGP, if they get it wrong it (at best) damages their credibility. There's probably enough disclaimers that it's the only damage, but the credibility thing is a big blow. "I bought based on your note, they were paying you to produce it, and I lost money. You've not been a useful broker to me, goodbye." That's the last they want to hear, so they are pretty sure it's going to be better than 17.9 within a year, or they wouldn't have put it out there.

They might be wrong, of course, but I doubt it.

@Cage "In my layman's opinion this could only be speculative at this stage until the SW results are known"

I'd say that with all the hype we could turn around and sell our non-Hav Paterson holdings, and for far more than $100 million. That's what they are saying, the Paterson hype means these have value today. If we drill and find nothing, they'll lose value, if we drill and find gold and/or copper....

David, part of the problem is that government profits (via income tax on BTL, Stamp Duty, and Inheritance Tax) from high house prices. Add in the Corporation Tax on builder profits while you are at it, I guess, and the National Insurance and Income Tax on builder's executive salaries and bonuses. PSN had a really extreme bonus plan but while Brokenshire made all kinds of noise about it, the government takes a huge chunk of it in taxes so they aren't likely to do much.

Reduce house prices and you reduce the government's take. They might not be quick to say that but they all know it. You also reduce the wealth of a lot of house owners which makes them very, very unhappy with the government.

Don't expect much more than a few tweaks which might have some impact but it's a problem that will be with us for a while, IMO.

"She right rollocked me for it too."
I am quite old fashioned. I do not approve of such behaviour from children. In this case, I'll make an exception, LOL.

@hydro, sorry about the $156, I think I must have conflated you with the guy on AIM on that one. Not sure why because I see a big difference between him and you.

I'm worried about someone who has a daughter who still listens to bedtime stories and is there wanting it, and he is instead typing stuff on this board. Get a life, mate, LOL! There may be a few things more important than a daughter's bedtime stories, but this forum isn't one of them.

@spoon, have you read GGPHelp.co.uk? Put together by a guy on here (BottleRocket), basically pulling a bunch of starter level info together, some really useful links, etc. On AIM it's good to get a feel for the guys in charge, so you might want to watch a bunch of the videos of the Proactive interviews. And the FAQ is really useful, too.

This is not a miner, this is an explorer. That's even more risky, usually. In this case, it's an explorer with a very large find (exact size undetermined), which means it's not really an explorer or miner any longer, it's primarily a gold-reserve holder. Kind of hard to categorise.

Don't invest here beyond your comfort range! The market cap is small enough that you can have a lot of volatility which gets uncomfortable. But right now might be the last good buying opportunity we'll see on this share, so if you want to consider it, I'd say it probably makes sense to try to get your research done quickly and make a decision soon. Good luck with whatever you decide.

@napthman, thanks for those links, interesting stuff.

Hi, Nige. The problem with 25% inflation is it is devastating for pensioners and others on fixed income.

I could add to your list of government actions that have contributed to the problem, but you've got a decent start there.

@Nige, I agree that's more likely and am positioned accordingly. But I can assure you there's fear of the other scenario out there, and that some people are shorting gold. When that breaks down, which I expect to happen, the squeeze will be on and gold will fly. I thought it was starting when we smashed through several resistance levels but the bears have pulled it back a little. I don't expect them to win.

Deflation certainly would chop the price of gold, almost by definition. All it takes is one set of central bankers to go stupid (the ECB leads in "stupid") and it could happen. But hyperinflation is far more likely.

I didn't mention deflation because I expect it, but because I think fear of deflation is a big factor in holding gold back right now.

"And Newcrest hedged the price of gold until 2023 from memory so they have lost out big time on current Gold prices"

Telfer hedge cost them $82 million in revenue according to the annual report. The remaining hedge is 216Koz in 2021, 204K in 2022, 138K in 2023. Will cost them something but given how much gold their other mines produce, it's not too significant for them.

"why bother using a stop loss if you don’t want to use it"

LOL, word for word my thought.

@Hawkspear, yes, I saw WB agrees with me. I made sure I got my gold stocks purchased before going public on these boards. I knew what would happen. One of his researchers was bound to see what I'd done, and pop upstairs to his office, and say, 'Sir, do you know what TMT has done? He bought GOLD!'

And old Warren, he'd say, 'Well, if it's good enough for TMT, good enough for me! Sell our other stuff, get a miner!'

Sadly, the idiot researcher wasn't thorough enough. He forgot to mention that it was GGP and NCM I bought, and so poor old Buffy made the wrong move and bought Barrick. What a waste. He could have called me and I'd have told him. Barrick doesn't own any of Hav (yet). Researcher will probably lose his job, and that's not fair. I always give Warren advice when he calls me, it's his fault really. Maybe I'll top up more before he figures it out.

@Fenix, he's new here, and he's asking the right kind of questions. If he buys, it will be because he's done his research and knows what he's about, rather than someone just staring at a chart and thinks they see an opportunity to turn a quick profit.

@spoon, re AISC, here's the latest NCM annual report: https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2020-08/200814_Newcrest%20FY20%20Full%20Year%20Results%20-%20Results%20Release_0.pdf

Across all mines:
• All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $862 per ounce, resulting in an AISC margin of $668 per ounce

At Cadia, they had AISC of $160 / oz. At Telfer, it was over $1200. A huge factor in Cadia's low AISC is the very high Cu by product. They are also using block caving at Cadia. Telfer is high because they are mining low-grade ore, so they have to process a lot of ore to get each oz of Au.

Various factors come into play on AISC. How deep the gold is, how concentrated it is, etc.

@spoon
For conservatism, figure the POG is $1500-1700. Figure the cost of extracting, processing, etc, at $800. Now, you're at $700-900. Figure the risk the buyer takes (no one knows until they've actually mined it exactly how much gold is there). Figure the fact that hardly any of that gold is coming out of the ground for 2 years, and some not for 10 years, so you have to use present valuing based on a presumed interest rate. It's not hard to get down to $400 / oz or lower.

Personally, I'm pretty sure there's more than 5 moz of economical gold in that deposit. (The MRE may not say that but later ones will). And I'm pretty sure that the effective price of gold is going to be more than $1700, and I'm optimistic that the total cost (AISC is the term) is going to be less than $800 (Hannam & Partners estimated under $500). The copper byproduct is substantial and the byproduct proceeds are deducted from costs to determine AISC.

So your numbers are, in my view, quite conservative, but I don't think it's guaranteed that we'd get more than $300 / oz for gold in the ground. I expect more but couldn't guarantee it.

I expect an 8 moz or more resource, I'm optimistic about AISC (not as optimistic as hydro, he's hoping for $150) being less than $800, I expect POG to be higher than $1700. In my view, it's worth at least $5-600 / oz even in the ground, and in my view there's a lot of it. But I'm not so optimistic as not to accept that your numbers might be right.

@Nige re: gold being held back.

I think it is fear. Tom Stevenson was writing about gold the other day, said it might double or it might halve. He's right.

General assumption is that inflation is coming, big time, and that's driving the bulls. But we're on a bubble that just might pop no matter what the banks do. There's way too much debt out there and way too much economic damage / unemployment. And the declining birth rate in the West (especially Europe) over the last few decades has created a demographic time bomb similar to what hit Japan.

The assumption has been that the central banks will keep propping things up and printing money to keep things going, producing inflation. But what if they fail? What if it doesn't work? The bubble could pop massively and we could see not inflation but double-digit deflation for 2-3 years. If that happens, gold goes pop, too.

The big boys know this could happen. Most are betting it won't and bullish on gold. Some are probably shorting gold. I suspect that's what's happening, that the major downside risk is priced in as well as the upside potential. Creates a nice tension, something will give. I'm betting it flies.

But I'm not holding gold, I'm holding gold producing assets. In any anticipated scenario, gold will still be a highly valued commodity. So for me, holding a gold explorer and a gold miner (I'm in NCM too) is a good hedge against hyperinflation and the least bad way to be holding gold assets in a deep depression.

Hyperinflation and deflation/depression are the two monsters out there. Brexit, a temporary trade war between US/China, even another lockdown, these are all small players from which economies tend to recover fairly rapidly. The flu of 1918 didn't stop the Roaring Twenties. But these two things could destroy my retirement if I'm not careful.

And the problem is that hedging against one leaves you vulnerable to the other, in most cases. Hold cash and in a depression you're a genius, in hyperinflation you're an idiot. Hold gold and it's the same in reverse. Oil has its appeal right now, in inflation it will hold its value and a depression would end the job-killing for the sake of environment, and oil would be ok. So I'm in oil. Also in uranium for the same reason. But there's risks everywhere, of course.

As usual, I've answered more than you asked. Hope it made a little sense anyway.

Just want to add to my comment about my son, that doesn't mean that I don't see a problem. He had good sense and so he had the money but it was more money than he should have had to pay to buy a house.

But the problem is a housing shortage. Solve the shortage and prices will be more appropriate. Don't solve the shortage and you'll have high prices. Mandate lower prices in the face of a housing shortage and you'll just end up with a greater shortage because no one will build.

Sorry, Tom, have to disagree with you about the flowers.

My wife deserves something made of lots of lovely gold!

But Javid now works for JPM so it must be a great buy.

@TomE, perhaps I've disagreed with you sometime without saying so. Another time I might say so -- it's a discussion board, after all.

No, I got out of TW. If I could do that well every time I'd be a genius. In last summer at 150, out at 215 after the election. Got out of BDEV at the same time. Still heavily in PSN, looked bad for a while but today it's making me look like I know what I'm doing. Not so much with my IAG and EVR holdings....

The only think I have that comes close to GGP is ML, I bought it when it was really low this spring. The best thing I got out of my time in TW was you and Bamps talking about GGP, then Nige gave me another nudge and finally my wife said, "I want to do it." On these boards I'll give the three of you a lot of credit, in real life I give her the credit, LOL.