Member Info for TakingMyTime

@WASU, that's been out in the American media for a couple days.

It means Americans returning don't have to quarantine unless their state / local government requires it, and most don't. Europeans still can't go to America but Americans here can return without quarantine. My guess is they'd let Brits come without quarantine if the UK would let Americans come here without quarantine. We might be close to fully opening.

Perhaps "someone" is steadily accumulating, or perhaps it's multiple PIs joining or building their stake without someone drip-feeding 4% of the company into the market. Volume was not exceptionally high, suggesting that it isn't a surplus of buyers, but a dearth of sellers driving the price higher. Lots of people sitting on their hands -- who would sell right now, now that the Beetham drain has been plugged?

Wow. The whole thread?

Thanks, Nige, will have a look.

Hi, Nige. I expect the house price mania to continue until March because of the stamp duty. Buyers will extend themselves to get in before the stimulus is gone.

I also think that if governments keep printing money, as seems likely, that land and house prices are likely to keep going up. People think precious metals are the main inflation hedge, but so also is property. (Another is uranium, you might have a look at YCA, SP falls far short of the value of the underlying assets so they are doing a huge share buyback.)

If the economy goes bad, what will central banks do? Print money, zero interest rates. What will land values do? Go up. Who has built up a big land bank for just such situations as this? PSN. And which builder is best positioned to take advantage of surging property prices in a bad economy? The one that makes more low-price houses. I'm staying in.

I almost bailed when we were over 3000 earlier this year, if I had and then bought in later I'd have made a killing. I do have a tendency to stay too long, but I still think there's massive upside here. Happy with my GGP but happy here, too.

I may have this GDXJ thing all wrong but have added a lot more shares yesterday and today.

Likely to be a very good investment even if I do have the GDXJ thing wrong, but if I have it right, within two weeks the opportunity to add at these levels will be gone forever.

My investment rules about not getting too concentrated in any one share are smashed to smithereens.

Well, looks like we've finally broken £2 completely.

Got a mention in the Telegraph as one of the few companies that is still cash-positive, that might have brought in some buyers.

14 day quarantine in US now a matter for state/local governments rather than federal.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-drops-14-day-recommended-quarantine-travelers

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/travel-during-covid19.html?_ga=2.133940109.260146334.1598272317-1339891309.1597421424

Still not open to Europeans but I'd guess that's coming soon.

@Jerry
As I said, this is not in my zone. So what I'll say here, take with a grain of salt, but maybe it adds a little.

1. Whether or not the UK version is separate or inclusive in the $6.4 Bn. From the fact sheet:
"The Fund is a sub-fund of the Company, an umbrella fund structure comprising different sub-funds. This document is specific to the Fund stated at the beginning of this document. However, the prospectus, annual and semi-annual reports are prepared for the Company rather than separately for the Fund."

That to me suggests the UK version is included in the $6.4 Bn. Again, I could be wrong.

2. You compared us to Great Bear, and it's a reasonable comparison, but you compared our MCAP to theirs today. The index was last reset in June, and their price is about 20% higher than it was. Haven't checked but I assume MCAP tracked that reasonably closely. If so, that would suggest that a MCAP of $600 Mln back then would have had a weighting of 0.5%. Of course, the MCAP of many of these will have gone higher in recent months due to POG, which will push our weighting lower, and if the top two drop out that will push it higher.

It would take some pretty serious spreadsheet work to figure this one out, I think, especially given what AM90 has written, which seems sound to me.

@Jerry "In theory the numbers could be bigger if we could find other funds or trackers that follow the MVIS."

According to etfdb (usually accurate, I believe), GDXJ is the only one tracking MVIS juniors.

@AM90 "For once this is where the relentless trading of this stock might benefit us. Take for example SolGold, they have a similar market cap but are no way near qualifying on value traded."

LOL. My attitude towards traders has always been something along the lines of "it's a free world, do it if you want, but I would probably prefer to not hear about it." Now, I may be forced to applaud them if they've done me a favour.

For reasons we've discussed previously on these boards, I do think the short term SP matters to LTH as a defense against a too-low takeover. So if the traders have managed to bring a £20 Mln (or thereabouts) institutional investor on board, that's pretty cool.

Re: Wallbridge

"Three month average-daily-trading volume of at least 1 mln USD at a review and also at the previous two reviews." (https://www.mvis-indices.com/indices/hard-asset/mvis-global-junior-gold-miners)

In June, the previous two reviews were in March and December. In December, the three months would constitute September, October, and November. Wallbridge didn't average $1 Mln USD in volume over those three months.

@Jerry, I don't know, but by the published rules, GGP should qualify. Have the MCAP. Have the traded # shares per month, easily. The only thing that gets close is the $1 Mln USD volume, averaged over the prior three months. We'll easily have it at this review, and at the previous review in June. At the review in March, looks like we were below it in December but easily cleared it for January and February, and so easily cleared it for the three month average.

So unless it is the monthly average for each of the previous three months, rather than a three month average, we should clear that qualification, too. That's the only place we're even close to missing it that I can see, unless there are other unstated qualifications. That would be surprising.

But this is not an area of the market with which I'm that familiar so I don't have certainty on it. Enough to go from "possibly" to "probably" but not "definitely".

In layman's terms:
1. A junior miners index rebalances on 11 September, and we believe based on the published rules that GGP will be included at probably somewhere between 0.3 and 0.5% of the index.
2. A huge US ETF ($6.4 billion) tracks the index, and will be selling the companies that drop out, and buying the companies that join, on 18 September. (There is a small UK ETF of the same symbol, but it is just a subfund, it's the US one that counts.)
3. If we are right about GGP joining, and right about the percentage, the ETF will be buying, on 18 September, between $19.2-32 million (USD) of GGP shares.
4. This is Sprott times 10 or more.
5. Again, if we are right, hedge funds and other institutional investors may be picking up on this soon and starting to drive the price up. They won't be LTH, they'll be selling as the ETF buys. So the increase may happen in the next week or two. If enough of them do it, it will be a very big increase before the 18th and we might even see a drop in price on or after the 18th as they take their profits.
6. Whatever happens in the short term, if we hit this index and ETF, it means probably well in excess of 100 million shares going into quite sticky hands.

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/enricopallazzo/

Unlikely anyone knows anything about him, but you can look through his posts and see if it helps you. Spelling is different which may mean it's a different person, but of course it might not. It's probably not his real name. Good luck with your hunt but it probably doesn't belong on here anymore.

LOL

Tell him thanks, Paddy. And pass on my apologies for the halitosis joke a couple weeks ago, too.

Div cover is always low on this share. It's how Russian miners roll. If you are counting a stable dividend, this is not the share for you. If you are looking for a high dividend with some risk and a lot of volatility in the share price, with potential significant upside, this might be for you.

Most of the American economy has been opening back up a lot more than here. Some states never went into lockdown at all. They get mocked for having a lot of cases but they aren't going to have an entire generation in poverty all their lives like we probably will have.

The UK is taking the worst economic hit of the major economies because the government is afraid of the BBC and the rest of the press and the BBC is scare mongering. So it's going to take longer for the UK to recover.

@news "Given the JV with Newcrest relating to GGP*s Havieron, Paterson being a feed for Newcrest*s Telfer, maybe Telfer needs more ore. I recall that they have capacity for more?"

Yes, Telfer has plenty of capacity for Telfer, Hav, and more. If we hit big on Scal, I expect another JV with NCM and either a rail line or conveyor to Telfer. Don't know if that will happen for just Hav but Telfer can process the ore and if it is both Hav and Scal, the question of how to get it all to Telfer the most economically becomes more important.

@schlem, it's further JV agreements.