Member Info for Surfit

Should we be getting some news regarding drilling: RNS 19th June RNS - Egypt update....but that may not be until December.
Am I reading that RNS correctly?

Positive artical for PMO? Sealion gets a mention but in all the figures the cost of Tolmount or Sea lion field developement is not considered in its effect on debt reduction. The people that write these artical do not really stretch themselves. Still nice to see a bit more exposure to our own project and this good lead to raising RKH's profile...a bit more?
https://seekingalpha-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4206053-premier-oil-catcher-oil-field-running-net-debt-decrease-fast

The decline in the PoO may account for the fall in SP, across the board (on my Oil investments) they are all down.

BUT we are approaching winter (Not going to mention Santa) and demand will increase and we should also consider this statement from the USA regarding Iran with regards to both Japan and in the comments below India.

Comments from S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “We have told the Indians consistently, as we have told every nation, that on November 4th the sanctions with respect to Iranian crude oil will be enforced, and that we will consider waivers where appropriate, but that it is our expectation that the purchases of Iranian crude oil will go to zero from every country, or sanctions will be imposed,” Secretary Pompeo said, noting that many countries would need “a little bit of time to unwind.”

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Major-Japanese-Refiners-Suspend-Iranian-Oil-Imports-For-October.html

Couple this with: Brazils elections / Chaos, Potential for Russian sanctions (Not sure if that is a reality for Europe), Venezuela firmly out of the picture AND the Saudis not going through with the Aramco sale (thus ensuring there continued ability to influence the PoO) this would indicate (to me) that we are not going to see a significant or sustained fall...with a rise quite possible. Just my opinions.
I believe that the timing could be a positive for PMO/RKH (or Standard Chartered) presenting a good case for investment opportunities.
Regards S

Hello, just as an aside. I had contacted RKH in early August asking a few questions over what/if they had been conducting enviromental assessments and or had a wave bouy placed in the area...for building a history to assist for the installation phase...I also asked about vessel and subsea equipment selection amongst other points.
RKH did kindley respond ( there is a wave buoy in place) but other than that only to say that PMO were the operators and my questions should be directed towards them directed to them.
Which may or may not indicate RKH ability to further decide on the development process. I would "guess" that RKH woyld if that is the case not be liable for financial contribution in the FEED. Thoughts?
Regards S

Brightside, well written and your perspective very imformative. Thank you for taking the time. Regards s

Taken from ADFV site found by Cyan Its Malcy and before the Telegraph artical so.... https://youtu.be/reiTKEeUFlM Would be interested on any thoughts on how long a bank would be expected to take to pull together funding of X00million required. Has the actual amount, that needs to be secured, been declared? Regards Surfit

Thank you for posting the Telegraph artical. The overall sentiment of that is indicating that Mrs Ambrose has heard through "city sources" that it does not look good for securing finance. Q: How long is it that Standard Charted were appointed? Q: As a rule how long should such a newly appointed bank be expected to take to secure the "x" amount of funding. So following that artical there should be a noticable drop in the sp tommorow.....and a further one if PMO say nothing or produce a negative report. I must admit it was a blow to read that....a very disapointing thing to read a negative on the one thing we needed to be positive. Regards S

Thank you Olliesky,
When Tuggy (post at 14:34) said Noble...I mistakenly thought Noble drilling, bit different to Noble Energy Falklands Limited. Strike.

Regards S

Hello Tuggy, I saw your post and thought no, then thought well lets have a look:
Noble Drilling or Noble Corporation PLC has seen a share price decline from a high of $34 in Nov 13 to a current level of $5 now....that's significant.
I then went and looked at their 1st quarter 2018 results and if you go to the liquidity section unless I am missing something they appear to have despite significant fall in income been able to pay of a significant amount of snr debt and maintain a decent amount of cash flow and ability to borrow.
Results obtained from: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/noble-corporation-plc-reports-first-quarter-2018-results-300641517.html
So not as far fetched as initially thought. Could it be worth considering that a drilling company would take an interest in development as they already have a licence in, or would they sit back and let others build the infrastructure?? I think it would depend on how they see long term future commitment in primarily drilling or diversification into operator ownership?
Regards S

Hello M, understood re the self finance, thought that a bold direction for PMO :-)
The EA funding challenge was an helpful and informative read, thank you. Could not access the FI..I am too tight to pay.
I would be lying to say I am not concerned, as I see it, it all hangs on securing the finance. I guess that is why the SP is what it is.
BUT
With the barrel remaining relatively steady: Iran and Venezuela out of the supply market, fracking not able to secure the same wild west money they had before and supply/transport costs and the Saudis wanting to keep a decent price for their sale...indicates the potential for some mid term price stability...???? maybe??
PMO have (using your link under the project finance section) had a relatively good project development record and developed can carry lessons learnt on to this project. Their actual debt and how they are manging it could be seen as an actual positive.
All that remains if for Rockhopper management to keep out of it and not snatch defeat from the jaws of potential victory.
Regards S

Hello Muchaboutmoney, many thanks for taking the time, the clarity and the links. Greatly appreciated.
My own feeling is that although some in PMO may want to self finance that would, as we can all imagine, have been a rather hard sell to those senior persons controlling the purse strings....but as you rightly mentioned TD (in the pod cast) has said there is a greater appetite for external investment now. I would be surprised if they went for self financing at this stage....would it be perceived as too great a gamble; too soon from their great escape? I suspect so.
Again thank you for your input...off to read your links now.
Regards SURFIT

Hello Gents:
My problem is I do not know what "pathfinder bank for the proposed senior debt project financing of the Phase 1 development of its Sea Lion project" entails.
I was assuming (may be incorrectly) it would be to provide a overall project cost analysis and conformation that there are sufficient funds to carry the project. Not sure if that is correct?
So the other question was: Would that include securing the short fall on total funding and what is the likely hood of that coming from them or is it the norm that they would look at the investment market. I do not know irrespective of the type of project i.e. it could be a High rise office building in Hong Kong or London for example.
Regards SURF

Hello Much, you said " Standard Chartered now responsible for coordinating the debt" forgive my ignorance but is that PMO debt or the cost of the Sealion development?
Would it be possible that Standard Chartered have been tasked for securing additional funding, either loan or sourcing money from investors.
I would be very interested in any opinion you have on this matter, due to your experience in this field.
I appreciate any comments would be opinion only but as securing finance is really the ultimate go/ no go on the whole of this project any thoughts would be welcome from me.
Regards SURF

Not sure if this has been posted, so I apologise if it has.
Reporting from the Merco Press regarding PMO recent visit to the Island. Sorry it is not much but at least is something to read that is encouraging: As we sit on our hands awaiting FID conformation.

http://en.mercopress.com/2018/07/28/premier-oil-outline-procurement-and-infrastructure-plan-in-the-falkland-islands
Regards

Thank you Much for your comments, again good input.
I am long with just under 108K shares.
My remaining concern is (as everybody's) is conformation of finance. I believe once that is secured we will hopefully see things develop well. We are approaching a real crunch point on this share with regards to finance.
Would it be correct to assume that PMO will not go it alone and they will need to secure external investors?
If we look at the likes of Chryasor or even Decipher these companies have found investors, all be it in the stable area of the North Sea.
The world does need new fields to be developed and development of new fields is how oil companies survive and maintain their share price.
My thoughts are IF PMO cant find and announce the funding by the end of 18 then I will start to become seriously concerned.
My opinion is that the time is very good time for venture capitalists investment. My reasoning: money remains relatively cheap to borrow and possible secure good terms (your opinion would be welcom) , oil price is up and has remained so for a relatively comfortable period, PMO have a proven track record and are managing their debt, Sealion drill results are as good as they can be and their is further potential.
My perceived down sides remain: Argentina, lack of infrastructure, remoteness and resupply chain issues in equipment and personnel.
A post from the FT earlier: https://www.ft.com/content/1e57dd38-01f2-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5
Regards

Very good find Mogger, thank you for posting. Regards

Thank you for posting that M. On face value the interview sounded encouraging and i could not detect /hear any "but" in TD's wording when discussing Sea Lion. Conformation and naming of an addtional invester, to make up the costs that PMO cant/dont want to cover would be all that is needed for all our confidences to be restored. Regards

Hello All, Thank you for the words of welcome.

Over the years it has been frustrating on the movement forward but as (much has already been discussed both here and at interactive) the fall in the oil price has crippled many, especially in the fracking side, but also subsea ops has been hit just as hard. Many subsea contracting companies have suffered (their employees even more so). Those companies that have survived are now starting to reap benefits of heavy cost cutting.

it would be good if there was another operator interested but without the endorsement of the Argentinian, it would continue to appear prohibitive for the likes of BP to get involved. Operators obviously risk assess the financial consequences.
If the British government could provide some financial inducement (for Argentina), then it may work...but what concessions could/should they concede.
As was comments made by Philip Hammond during the recent visit "only the Falkland Islanders have the right to determine their own political and economic future"
BUT money talks and if it were not for the Falklands the UK and Argentina have had a really close relationship.
Could Brexit trade deals be sweeteners for a country(s) (both of us) that needs to secure trade and deals out of the EU?
Obviously this is all very subjective and I could be guilty of posing questions that suit a positive outcome, because it would be beneficial for RKH.

Best regards

Hello All, new to the board. Held RKH since 2016.
The only news I can see regarding BP and any Drilling in 2020 is for the a deepwater oil well in the Mexican block.
"The four-year exploration plan for the block located in the Gulf’s Salina Basin is also expected to lead to an investment of $199.5 million and add up to 75 million barrels of oil equivalent in reserves, according to the CNH"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-bp/bp-to-drill-first-deepwater-oil-well-in-mexican-block-in-2020-idUSKBN1GX02D

Regards