Member Info for Surfit

GLD
https://www.statista.com/statistics/262858/change-in-opec-crude-oil-prices-since-1960/#0
2015 49.49
2014 96.29
2013 105.87
2012 109.45
2011 107.46
2010 77.38
2009 60.86
2008 94.1
2007 69.04
2006 61
2005 50.59
Rds sft

Still looking at information and trying to learn and understand certain triggers for when to step out of oil shares.
I have attached a link that adds further opinions to the October Oil price decline and resultant oil share price falls.
We have seen 40% to 50% falls in the likes of PMO, RKH, GKP and HUR.
BP and Shell 16% to 18%
Obviously the former fell so much great due to their exposure or vulnerability.
We are presently seeing a reported "plunge" i.e >3% in the Oil price due to a down turn in China's growth.
Durring the world wide finicial crisis Oil "dropped" to
2006 $58.30 $70.77
2007 $64.20 $75.66
2008 $91.48 $103.67
So I fail to see a corralation with regards to china growth as an indicator.
Oil crashes seem to happen when OPEC/ OPEC+ turn the taps on i.e in a fooled attempt to bust fracking or when Trumped...thoughts /comments welcome.
Artical relating to last drop
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Whats-Behind-Oils-Slow-Flash-Crash.html

Still looking at information and trying to learn and understand certain triggers for when to step out of oil shares.
I have attached a link that adds further opinions to the October Oil price decline and resultant oil share price falls.
We have seen 40% to 50% falls in the likes of PMO, RKH, GKP and HUR.
BP and Shell 16% to 18%
Obviously the former fell so much great due to their exposure or vulnerability.
We are presently seeing a reported "plunge" i.e >3% in the Oil price due to a down turn in China's growth.
Durring the world wide finicial crisis Oil "dropped" to
2006 $58.30 $70.77
2007 $64.20 $75.66
2008 $91.48 $103.67
So I fail to see a corralation with regards to china growth as an indicator.
Oil crashes seem to happen when OPEC/ OPEC+ turn the taps on i.e in a fooled attempt to bust fracking or when Trumped...thoughts /comments welcome.
Artical relating to last drop
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Whats-Behind-Oils-Slow-Flash-Crash.html

Quite a jump to day peaking from 11:45hrs, peaking at 25p (12:10hrs) and then dropping right back down at 12:50hrs.
Someone made a bit.
Rgds Sft

That was Smart Mogger. A really decent number if considered as a minimum.
Rgds Sft

Well the Chevron story seems to be persisting
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/190646/premier-oil-plots-fundraiser-for-chevron-north-sea-swoop-report-says/
Thats where they could spend them credits
Rgds Sft

I too have my doubts. Really interesting blog post. I would like to see/know of any similiar historical (Oil) precedence. There are some (Much+) on here that have possibley quite good knowledge on the matter.....and have stated that Italy can not refuse to pay...if they lost....but what, as stated, are the consequences of refusing.
I genuinely think it will be loss of investment (+ legal costs) rather than that AND what could have been earned. To bank on anything else is a lottery ticket. My non legal opinion...so not sure what that is worth!
How Italy could afford $1.25 or even 50% with out a national outcry is anyones guess. Just imagine if the UK got hit for the like?

Rgds Sft

Hey Gary, you have posed some valid points.
1. FID was supposedly coming imminently- I do not think they said FID was imminent just "news" and I think it turned out to be the appointment of the bank.
3. If RKH win the case in Italy: I would be happy in gettin the outlay back...which is like all cases never a sure bet ...but at least it no win no fee. That also indicates the strenght of the case.
4. Where is the cash flow: hope fully Egypt
5. Will shareholders be diluted: That is a question I dont know...in that not sure what RKH have to pay for on field development. If its sanction I THINK we have a carry from PMO
6. Why does the BOD keep snatching free options? its not a lot and is pretty standard.
7. Why hasn't Sam bought any shares , EVER?: That is a VERY VERY good question.
8. With Premiere Oils huge debt , when will they ever be able to fund Sealion? Yes that debt is not that much...when oil is at a decent price and they now have a producing assets..plus Tolmount...is another good income generator...wish RKH had it.
9. If RKH was such a good bet , how come no takeover approach?
They only have the falklands and its all about what the Argies previously said about any that work in the "Malvinas" Islands
10. How are RKH going to grow the cash reserves without diluting current shareholders?
Not sure on the full finances but onnce its sanctioned its an asset that can be borrowed against???
Just my 10p worth.
I would say...I agree that the RKH board do not seem to have made the best decisions: Egypt- Not getting paid, Italy and I wonder what we really got for selling 60% of SL.
Hopefully the drilling in Egypt will add some decent returns.
Rgds SFT

GLA

Start of a climb back up?
"Saudi production in December was back below the October baseline used for its (and most other countries’) promised cuts."
unfortunately it is a heck of climb back up to 43p. Weldone on those that Headed out from October 3rd onwards and have bought back in recentley of course. I am not one of those.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2019-01-06/saudi-oil-production-cuts-may-stoke-oil-prices-spur-trump-tweets
Seems to me the Saudi's are going to align with Russia..Trump may just have scored another massive own goal and is passing the whole of the middle east to the Russians: Syria, Iran and now Saudi Arabia?
Rgds Sft

That was from 2013; heck of a good memory ROK1
No further knowledge to add.

http://en.mercopress.com/2013/08/31/falklands-argentina-banned-oil-companies-linked-to-ypf-partner-chevron

Hello all,
To respond my perspective only, of course) to a few very valid posts:
Alternative to PMO...if PMO have commited 60 personnel to the sealion project in Aberdeen its a very very significant amount of personnel. I have no conformation / proof of that number nor have I asked regarding such numbers. I still think that the big boys will not touch it due to Argentinas previous threats....but again its so far down the road no one want PMO dropping out now. My concern has been that they progress Tolmount and then think Zama is a safer prospect...but as others have thought the hope is that they sell their stake to ease their debt burden.
Adding PMO: I would have also but have put too much in at higher prices. RKH will reap better returns if SL is sanctioned but will fall off a cliff if not...where as PMO have good producing assets (and Tol, Zama) and having survived the debt/fall are despite what the PMO board feel have I think pretty battle hardenend managment (with tight accountant controls).
Couple that with a work force that are probabley pretty keen (working damn hard) to keep their jobs in a still very depressed Aberdeen.
Infrastructure full development will not be needed immediately the drillinng campaign could take 2 yrs...could be something like the drill ship west navigator...capable of the required depths. Then its just a crew change of 100+ each month. Its after that you will need at least 3 ROVSV deep(ish) vessel with 100+ (for each vessel) monthly crew change and significant onshore storage, supplys, equip etc etc
FPSO(s) that will be an interesting one and is it not unreasonable that the below proposed (RPDLE) route is undertaken but that is if PMO are struggling for finance...or can get it but not on the best terms by the potential lenders....but its a very valid options and if anything gives PMO further finance options during negotiations?
I still feel there could be a chinese input money wise...look at Iceland to see how much the chinese dont mind putting money up front for "intresting" resorce projects.
SL is a such major project BUT I think that for PMO mid/long term future its the best oppertunity they may ever get to secure that future. They are not diversifying as other majors are/can.
Remember they are firmely in the business of Oil and Gas...so if they do not go for this oppertunity they will have lost significant credibility...and for the team and men like TD its a potential career /life time legasy project?
But its all just speculation on my part. Wish I was a fly on the wall in PMO'S board room :-).
One last thing...when the annoncement comes it will be a binary result for us all.
Weldone for those that had the spare cash now...I am stuck at an average of 30p...accountant going to be swearing at me as it is....I dont mind if it does not go up until April....I want to transfer across to my 19 ISA! (-:
THEN can I have fid (positive conformation please).
Best regards to you all.

Hey RPDL,
Obviously its just my opinion, but since 2013 there has been no significant sanction of new major subsea projects. Quad 204, catcher etc all sanction before the crash. Oil companies must continue to develop projects in their inventry to survive. The majors have been selling out in the North Sea and many moving across to LNG.
It is my understanding that SL has the potential as a good quality oil producer...with PMO having a relatively proven experience in development (for their size). The SL field would be very similiar to QUAD 204 (west of Shetland)..but with no established infrastructure in the FI's for equipment storage, crew change, fuel, water and provisions...that would have to be in place once the intiall drilling has been completed. Quad 204 had up to 8 vessels working the field in the last 2 years of the project.
Orman langer (gas project that supplys 27% of the uk gas supply) had Kistiansund as its supply base 10hrs steam to location.
Not sure how many Nautical miles from SL to Port Stanley.
So all that has to have been already considered.
We are all wary of the USA fracking...but I (reading articals) am still not fully confident that it is as big threat to a price of $65. If the US is putting up intrest rates that may also be a bigger risk to shale as well as a price of $55.
So if OPEC+ can balance it at said $65, couple with the lack of and large sanctions of oil project world wide for quite some years now...i remain hopefull.
The USA (under Trump seem to be loosening their grip in the middle east and the Saudi's (after getting stiffed by him via sactions debarcle) seem to have a new friend in Putin...who could broker a calming (hopefully) between them and Iran?
If we dont get a a positive FID/sanction this year its probabley not going to happen.
Finaly...I still feel there MUST be some encouragement coming from the UK goverment on getting SL and the FI's fincially independent.
I can assure you energy is high on a goverments agenda...my ex boss was called up directley by a goverment official when we were developing Orman Lange..to check up on progress as winter 2011/12 approached.
Obviously all of the above is just my humble opinion.
Rgrds Sft

Thank you for the post FalklandsInvestor; the project keeps inching forward.
15 acres is a very decent sized plot.
Rgrds Sft

Your lot are too obvious. No introduction as you enter the BB. A couple semi fair post's the settle into deramping.
What back up is there to you opinion on your post other than your opiniin of course.
Get rid of one/two and then another appears.
What was your BB name on ii? How long have you held RKH.
Not to say it could go lower: down shift in PoO wold do it...but if reductions start to bight PoO could rise....if you have supported idea please enlighten the BB. If you have a supported theory regarding what the "city" thinks please enlighten the BB. We would all welcome informative and supported information....at least once...i.e please put a bit of work into it...at least Carrot made a bit of effort.
Regrds Sft

Fgwds, how long have you been invested in RKH? I asked because you joined the BB recentley
Rgds Sft

Interesting find D, wonder how the could afford the cost of purchase?
PMO have a lot on their plate already. I would be very suprised if they were going to invest in older assets at this stage but its a numbers game I guess: Production, life of field, asset integrity, field potentials, PoO and interest on borrowing.
I am not going to state the obvious of course.
Regards Sft

Morning Nigoil, your quit correct. I have got my months mixed up. Sept was the prices I was quoting (rather embarrassing). I was/am very interested in the change on the dates from the 3rd/5th of October) as it was a tipping point for a continual decline across the oil shares. Again trying to understand what was happening around those dates. What information had escaped or been released. All I can see is news of Trumps intention to grant larger dispensations had been leaked or passed on to those that slowley and gradually withdrew from oil and oil stock.
Yes the remaining decline in late November was at the price low range you correct me on.
Who on this board would be affected by derampers...if they are they must be very small sized investors...no one holding significant share volume on a long term view i.e non trader would sell when in the mid 20's.
Last time this dropped such I bought in at 21p it did bottom out VERY briefly at 18.
This share is obviously traded a lot with gains to be made by those who do...and will probabley continue to do so until FID and sanction are triggerd.
But even HUR which has an FPSO on route to site has been similiarly effected.
Regards Sft
Appolagise for the dates aka school boy error. No job offer from you / Ov or carrot in the future thats for sure!

Car: Thank you. I have definetly not read enough, some, but not enough. Reading Robert Fisks: The great war for civilisation (middle east) at the mo but that more the whole Palastine/Israel/Osama/Sadam/ Algeria/France/ Arab Spring etc etc But I take you points seriously.
I have seen a few down turns but not whilst investing.
Nigoil: Its still a damn accurate asessement from Car or fgwds (def first posted by fgwds on 29th Nov) and I have got to respect its accuracy. As before I am not a big trader...am long on a decent amount and I will only be trading about 10k slowly whilst learning.
I think you have both stated you trade to mostley to gain share increase.
Regards SFT

Fgawdsake, I ask again yoyr post back in November were predicting 20p. So what made you come to that conclusion? As I saw it at that time there was no indication of Trump allowing the level of dispensations...or had it been put out and I had not picked up on it?
20p is a bold as RKH closed at 37.47 on the 28th of Nov and 38.25 on the 30th your post was on the 29th.
Regrds Sft

Pardon me Ralph, poor timing on my post. Valid post.
Rgds sft