Member Info for Surfit

Pretty sure I am watching this BB play out the film "Split".
Or
You have all fallen out of the House of Commons the Bar
Rgds Sft

Fgwds cant fault your November posts. Before the October 2nd/3rd continued fall and pretty damn accurate prediction at the time. But surley it was Trump double crossing the Saudi's that led to such a fall...which could not have be predicted?
Rgds sft

The last paragraph in that FT artical was:
"While net imports have been in long-term decline, last week’s balance may not repeat itself in the weeks to come given recent trends in oil trade flows."
There is no doubt shale is a sig player. Rookie's re-post is a interesting read.
Rgrds sft

Intresting that fgds (of 30 posts) states I am a ramper.
It is true I want RKH to be successful...I would be foolish to invest in a company I did not think was going to be so?
I invested back in 2016 thinking we were out of the worst of it and having worked in OnG for over 25yrs with 18yrs being associated with sub sea ops (and affected by the down turn) was looking to invest in a area I know something about.
It is a learning curve to invest in aim and watch what and how the SP is and how affected by several external factors.
Of course I want the share price to go up?? I am not a trader...I have bought some to try and learn but as it was not at the bottom I will have to weight. This board does not have that many diverse inputters (but maybe a few more readers). I am not in the least concerned by negative post be cause they are genrally not supported by articals but some who invested at higher prices a good while back and, rightly so are fed up waiting, but other posts I find "strange" in their lack of produced support to that opinion.
I only have this board and look at ADFN (who have some intelligent and possibley experienced invester on it cyan for one).
I look to share my opinion and findings and always welcome a different and SUPPORTED counter to that opinion. In OnG we absolutely depend on HIRAs and Risk assesment to proceed and continue the workscopes.
Rgds Sft

If we could all predict the future hey.
Petrobras are investing in their business....because they are in the Oil business. As are PMO and Rocky.
Back in 2002 Shell were finishing off the NS Penguins project PoO (Brent) was around $28 then. If you are in the business continued development is crucial. This project will be developed; the FI need this, the British Goverment need it, PMO need it and financiers need to lend money.
Of course I wish I could have bought in at these lower prices but I suspect after FID and sanction there will be many oppertunities. Look how far HUR are down the road and they have been hit just the same.
With the weakining of OPEC and the rise of US fracking (still not fully convinced how cheap it is) PoO is probabley going to remain flexible..the new norm?
Rgds Sft

Extract from artical:
"Presenting its business and management plan for the upcoming five-year period, Petrobras said the plan assumed average Brent crude oil price growth from $66 a barrel in 2019, $67 in 2020, $72 in 2021, $75 in 2020, to $75 in 2023.

The company plans to spend $84.1 billion in total over the period. Of this, $68.8 billion will be spent on its exploration and production business, $8.2B on refining, transportation and marketing, $5.3 B on gas and petrochemicals, and $0.4B on renewables."

https://mobile.offshoreenergytoday.com/petrobras-to-spend-68-8b-on-ep-plans-to-order-7-new-fpsos/?uid=241976

I do not see OPEC as waste of space. I belive it has lost influence as the fracking has gained significant ability with regards to affecting supply and couple this withTrump/USA using strong arm tatics over countries that purshase oil i.e from Iran. Having indicated the amount of cuts /sanctions intended he then convinced the Saudi's (AND they influenced OPEC members) to reduce supply and then gave a considerable waivers. I belive this is understood as to what has happened recentley??? I also think OPEC had a little bit to do with the 2014 fall also...this to is well understood and documented???
I concur that the fracking supply remains the most recent and strongest affect to OPEC. I have not fully researched as to maximum fracking capacity ONCE they have their supply/pipline routes optimised.
None the less how much if the actualy world supply comes from the OPEC members.
I think that OPEC is far from being a waste of space.
But of course this is just my and a "few" others opinion.
Rgds Sft

Nice find Mogger.
A good friend, who works over in South Korea building/refurbing derricks...was talking to Huston engineers recentley over and they mentioned that there is a fare bit of chat about Rigs for the Falklands back home....that was all he said...still nice to see the F Islands are on peoples lips over there and not just on this board.
If PoO can gain a bit or even remain stable at the least.
Rgrds SFT

CR, so are we saying that that should continue...the operators have got spending under control but development are reserves is massively down...correct. Good for our project? Correct??
Rgds Sft

Hey CT
Chinese money would be very possible AND yes agree about that effect over Arg....but to be talking about outing SM for current situation I disagree. The only way RKH would have a Chinese CEO over Sam is if they owned it...and at the mo...they could get it for 50p a share...not good.
I have always felt they (China) would be the most likely sourse of cash for FID...probabley tied in with a delivery contract? As before mostley state owned and I know of none in UK oil companys the only other example I had heard of is Ye Jianming.
Can't see PoO below 50 reasoning only because the Saudi's need to keep other members onboard and consideration of the crown prince (obviously my guess's / readings, as I have spoke of before)...possible need to push back over the Trump.
Still good to debate and thoughts, but sorry Sam stays (-:
Regrds SFT

Find a Chinese CEO to take over from Sam...really???? Know many with a proven back ground? Most chinese Oil companies are government owned. So where is this chinese "saviour" coming from??
SM started, stuck AND struck, he has maintained RKH. He not originally from an Oil background but its his baby and my guess is he has learnt a heck of a lot over the last 14 years....hopefully a bit more about contracts!
RKH is still standing and on the very brink of potential success.
The high's of years back were way to high and a result of the supposed oil forever times. £5.00 was only very brief and bonkers even £2.00 if your not actually producing is just investor sentiment..i.e Tesla.
As Nigoil said all the aim oilers sp' are on the floor. So unless PoO is going south of $50 it is what it is.
I am going to add to PMO thier % drop has excheeded RKH and I belive they have proven totally themselves...a lot better than many larger operators.
Having survived a near fatal mistake they have learnt also having and developing reserves is as crucial as repaying debt...Catcher and Tolmount were not producing in their trouble days. Tolmount to develope with no significant risk..SL and Zama. If as people are saying PMO have commited 60 personnel to SL...that is hugh and appropriate. Compare Quad 204 as a comparative project.
Of course (as we all know) PoO drives it all.
Regrds Sft

North Sea Sat diver makes £39,000 a month x max 6 trips a year.
True SM is getting £30k each and every month...RKH have 12 employees Not sure how many contractors are supporting the 12 in the office?
If we had not lost so much in the SP but this is firmley down to the drop in PoO and being in AIM.
I would say the BoD have made errors mostly due done before the big crash. Egypt: non payments, Italy was a curve ball (could it have been anticipated..? People can also say the actual appointment of PMO...but who else was prepared to step in at the time...none of the majors that is clear.
I agree we have to see/hear about good management of the remaining cash. The did reduce some...but have also possibley correctley invested in what would "appear" to be a good drilling campaign in Egypt.
If your want to throw SM out, who do you have in mind? and for what salary?
I would like to see us out of AIM BUT there is no indication of that happening.
Note: HUR were trying previously that seems to have been abandoned.
Regrds SFT

Mark Fisher comments (2 days old):
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/renowned-energy-trader-mark-fisher-says-oils-next-10-move-will-be-higher/
Yesterday:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/11/20/trump-says-breaking-with-saudi-arabia-would-send-oil-prices-through-the-roof.html

In addtion another artical also reported that the Saudi's felt Trump manipulated them by after Nov 4th not fully imposing the Iranian sactions (On Japan etc etc) Those "sanctions" being the pretext to convince them (Saudi's) to increase supply.
Regards SFT

Added again around 15:50: missed the morning window in the 22p range and bought at 23.04p
I think I have been too early and there will not be enough support for the PoO to hold firm.
My guess is that until OPEC meet and possibly reduce production some..the PoO and therefore this share could (obviously INMO) fall a bit more.....but I felt that 23p is a resonable buy...especially after adding previiusly at around 33p and 27p! So will have to live with it.
Worth a read (below) I think it supports my thought I should have waited some more.
Regard SFT
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/11/21/trump-thanks-saudis-for-lower-oil-prices-amid-khashoggi-criticism.html

Speaking of a Hurricane, well they are down 31% from their recent highs....AND they have and FPSO on route to their site!
BP and Shell are down around 12% / 15%

There was a post by a poster called "halfpenny" on the PMO site on Monday that struck me as interesting:
"Mark Fisher predicts next $10 poo move will be upwards . He states hedge funds got outta oil futures and into natural gas hence poo tumble and natural gases 45% gain this past month. He's an energy sage. Therefore potential for a U turn"

I am not on the named Mark Fisher nor have I researched the natural gases having risen 45% but if the above is true it explains (hedge fund shift) the down trend and would shorter's knowing/hearing/seeing (not sure how) of the move then logically jump on the oil shares?? and chase them down until OPEC news. If such investors are out there they have made some really serious profit on the climb up, down and then the next move up again.
I look at HUR/PMO/GKP/RKH and they ALL fall from the 2nd of October onwards ALL the same date?
Rgds SFT

As on previous post: Nothing has changed with RKH and PMO since brent $63. In fact its moved forward (behind the scenes..need a lawyer anyone)
If we actually look at other oil aim many if not most (I have not checked them all) have all lost around 38/40%
So all i can continue to see is its oil confidence combined with aim exposure to shorting.
If we (PMO& RKH) were the only loosers in the similiar peer markets there would be room for "sig" concern.
Added at 23.90 and 24.04. Will wait to ad a further £5k if it drops below 22.
Will tranfer it to 19's ISA.
The risk to FID has not changed since March 18.
PMO solid, managing debt as agreed whilst using funds to invest correctely.
TD and PMO have made the choice on debt repay and long term investment.
Only see so many on this board when its heading down (apart from the real old time high holders).
Eddison report hold fully firm.
Rgds Sft

Old info but still interesting (and valid? / Anything changed?)
Note: The oil price for Brent crude oils in March was 66.02$ per barrel

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/rockhopper-exploration755611/preview/

Hey Much, cheers for the reply.
It was all looking so good 6 weeks ago. It sure is a roler coaster. I can understand the long termers frustrations with PoO being in a relatively good position. I still feel, at the time if RKH had selected another even newer operator (With the more mature ones not stepping in due to the Argi stance on investors) they would not have done any better than PMO. They (PMO) do not appear in my eyes to have done anything wrong after surviving the crash and in fact probabley built respect amongst their peers (chryasor, Repsol etc etc and their larger peer competitors Shell, BP, Total etc etc)
Money is awash and with large property investments (high rise developments) not being possible as popular as it was, I would have thought Chinese or middle eastern money would be available?
Gotta just sit it out and bunker down.

Sft

Thank you for the post Much.
I too filled in on the decent: 33p and around 28p. Unbelivable drop.
Bought back in on GKP. They have moved up.
Can all this be due to shorters, if so really incredible how such shares can be manipulate.
A poster has said that a such a drop means RKH must now issue a RNS. Is this correct.
Really dum founded. I do not belive this drop is due to any unpublished bad news on FID. Hope I am wrong.
Sft

Ohhh the other thing is I do not belive a hard brexit has been built in for us lot (aim) in anyway. That is another drop..with out a positive FID conformation.
I must admit...I remain fully in but it is a touch concerning..last buy in (for RKH was 28.7...I really cant keep chasing this down anymore...well not until april :-×