Member Info for Surfit

Thank you for the post Mogger.
The completion of storage and port facillities would have to dove tail with the start of Sea lion subsea infractucture construction (imo). So maybe that too is an indicator of project time lines.
The drilling stage may not be "as crucial" but when Orman Lange was getting built the drill ship (West Navigator) used Kristansund frequently. So adequate port facilities could also be a factor for the respective well drilling campaign also? I am not fully up on how self suffecient drill rigs are nor how they would manage material, bunkers suppy and crew changes from the field location.
Something to investigate and consider.
Pleased they put what looks like a spool section getting offloaded rather than a load of fish.
Finding out more on the extent of the port construction i.e plenty of quay heading for at least 2 or 3x vessels i.e 120m+ lenght vessels ROVSV's and 80m supply vessels. Potential for dry dock...(that might be going too far though) and the amount of equipment workshops/ storage sheds.
Nice find and post.
Rgrds Sft

Thank you Much, good to see your still about and keeping an eye on things.
(and me) (-:

Apart from this yesterday of RKH

19-Mar-19 16:36:45 22.9213 (volume) 304,941 Buy* 22.65 22.85 £69.90k (cost)
Lots of small consistant sells ...shorters getting out finally??
But someone has a bit of confedence i.e nearly £70k
Rgds Sft

PMO are beating the trend with my other Oily's presently could that be:
An end of shorting? Combined with positive market sentiment towards Zama results now starting to be realised?
PoO brent crude no sig changes at $67.42
Rgds Sft

We / us / this BB do seem to get involved in arguments over what is really only opinions.
I invested back in 2016 because I thought Oil had bottomed out and the SL field was a very feasible oppertunity due to the size of the discovery and the location (pro being the FI's need to generate an income for defence being the prime factor).
It is true there are some that turn up at certain moments that would indicate that they could be involved in shorting...their time lines (on input is the only indicator). On the flip side there are us that stay around and chat....but what frustrates me most is that deep down we know despite the above "real" positives is that I have come to see that the BoD are not very good. SM has on proved to be capable of the "find". I am in(for me) quite a bit..but PMO are our only hope (how much cash is left for any one else?).
I feel a bit ralph'ish (and he has been here long time) at present.
It as has been said before a binary investment...but crickey I wish RKH BoD would at least try and act like oil snr management.
I have worked for the most snr UK opperators for 25yrs now and these guys are never going to be long term operators. Their investment/contract/spend history is the guide.
Remain in but I do Ralph it and say what news is there from anyone but PMO??
Rgds Sft

Hi Cubane, thank you. Biffdog posted their current status a couple of days back and i would say it is the only good news around at present.
I was hoping that Fernon10 might have had a reply back from his email to the RKH BoD but no news from them as usual. You would have thought there would have been an update regarding egypt and drilling..the only area that is actually generating income.
As you say at least PMO are on the climb, PoO related and/or investers having a bit more confidence in them or a reduction in short position there also. Pure speculation on my part.
With FID looking to be still min (guess) 6 month away I am not expecting to see much growth here (until then) and if anything without any positive comments from our BoD combined with a continuation of loss of remaining cash its just hanging around these levels.
Rgds Sft

PMO have debt but its under control, good producers, very good expectations from Zama and has produced/announced a "relatively" clear path for the potential FID for sea lion.
RKH has a a great % of SL, small producer in Egypt, awaiting abritration in Italy and there is concern regarding RKH cash flow.

In my opinion we are seeing better sp rises in other companys (PMO and others small/mid) that have had their sp depressed following the pre xmas drop....imo there is "maybe" better confidence in PoO rising following OPEC+ cuts.
Just my take on it
Rgds Sft

Hi Carroteater, i am not saying its impossible (your theory) but Fiona leaving was as I see it due to job done and lack of oppertunity. For Sam to leave the very company he has built before the realisation of all the years of work he has put in to make this happen would be an unrealistic consideration (IMO). A take over remains more likley with RKH potential value.
Respectfully Sft

Ps what I forgot to add but is the known obvious is RKHs remaining cash...that may or probabley is the remaining hold back on this sp until Fid and sanction have been announced and positively confirmed.
Just my opinions of course.
Rgds Sft

Hello CRE, I am interested on what basis is this "theory" being presented?
RKH is SM legacy, I to be fully truthfull, am not impressed with him or the BoD there not up to the job. Fortunately they have farmed it out, unfortunately to a indebted company before the oil crash.
Fortunately it may still go ahead despite the RKH Bod, PMO debt..but as (imo) it will continue to be a slow process because of PMO near bankruptcy their financial constraints (invester accountants restrictions over them). PMO can not afford to make a "Solan" mistake over their developments especially the SL. I hope members such ad Overts and Much are correct about the monitisation of Zama but I hold my doubts (or maybe its more a worry) that they look to mange their debt reduction more gradually by having a good producing field portfolio and ZAMA wont cost them that much and its a relatively straight forward and possibley quicker build than SL.
On a positive note...it looks like aim and small oil companies are moving (RKH lagging just at the present). Is there some further confidence in PoO?
Rgds Sft

Missed the title of the artical:
Norway's $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund is expected to sell some of its oil and gas holdings.

Possibley to do with the:
The world's largest sovereign wealth fund owns $37bn of shares in oil companies such as BP, Shell and France's Total.
Selling the shares means it would not be as reliant on oil prices, it says.
But Norway's finance ministry said oil will still be central to..
www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-47494239
Rgds Sft

Interesting point
GKP sp currently 247p - Brent crude currently $67.3
GKP sp August 28th 2018 301.00 - Brent crude $75.91
GKP sp October 16th 2018 247p - Brent crude $80.03

RKH sp December 16th 2016 19.25p - Brent crude $53.31
RKH sp March 29th 2018 23.05p - Brent crude March 2018 $66.02
RKH sp May 22nd 2018 44p - Brent crude 22nd May 2018 $80.42
RKH sp today 22.46 - Brent crude currently $67.30
Rgrds Sft

Interesting point
GKP sp currently 247p - Brent crude currently $67.3
GKP sp October 16th 2018 247p - Brent crude October $81.03
Current sp seems to be recovering, with potential for further growth.
Rgrds Sft

Hi LY, there was a poster (sorry can't remember the persons name) on here a while back that raised a similiar point.
The poster recommended a small book SaudiAmerica (Bethany McLean)..I bought it and devoured it in one sitting. An interesting read.
Regds Sft

Thank you Mogger
Rgds Sft

I agree that PMO really do appear to be dragging their heels a bit on this...although it could be considered that they do have a lot going on for a pretty small Oil Company.
I do understand the SLA is not a small project even for a major with deep pockets. I also consider how much are the bank/accountants playing in ensuring that PMO's risk and financial exposure is checked, double checked and cut to the absolute minimum. We should all remember and consider that they very nearly went bankrupt. The culture within the company will be very strict in all aspects.
I agree GS but its better to skirt such in an interview and better explain on a managed script, no awkward questions.
Godders: I can not fault your comments and in fact fully agree. PMO do not seem to be in a hurry on this but take in my thoughts as above.
I am really disapointed with myself because for some reason I thought FEED was completed, that grant submissions had been done and FID was going to be at the latest Q4 (18) or maybe Q1 (19).
As to RKH, I would love to hear if they respond to the email sent in regarding the PMO/RKH contract...they are now just back seat drivers in the imediate future of SL.
Regrds Sft

Hi Fernan10, nice one. Thank you for sending your question in and thank you for sharing on the BB.
RKH's reply will be interesting.
Great post.
Rgds Sft

Hi Grey Squirrel/ Fernan, very interesting points.
Fernan have you considered email the questions to RKH directely. I would be especially interested in their reply to your point 2.
RKH bod do not strike me as the best of deal makers, but you would think/fully expect that the PMO/RKH contract would have had built in fall back options for RKH.
It would be significant to hear how they (RKH) respond.
Rgd Sft

Whilst we continue to wait for PMO to make a FID announcement. Egypt remains (IMO) what the market views RKHs only real valuation (not including Italy either).
Until then we (again IMO) will keep this low..and this time we are not getting much of a lift from the PoO as if you look at these two example...it still appears that the markets can not make their mind up on /if there is ever going to be price stability...the new norm appears to be fluctuation eg just today:
Goldman: OPEC To Clear Supply Glut By April
Goldman’s commodity chief Jeffrey Currie told CNBC "OPEC is pursuing a shock and awe strategy," cutting production faster and deeper than the investment bank expected. This suggests that supply will tighten sufficiently by April for OPEC to call the mission accomplished.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-OPEC-To-Clear-Supply-Glut-By-April.html

Then about 6hrs later you get this in the press

Oil Heads Lower After API Reports Large Crude Build
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large surprise build in crude oil inventories of 7.29 million barrels for the week ending March 1, coming in way over analyst expectations that predicted that crude oil inventories would build by 388,000 barrels.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Heads-Lower-After-API-Reports-Large-Crude-Build.html
So I am not expecting much of a significant climb back up from RKH, I am suprised that PMO sp is still suffering as much what though.
The rest of my oil portfolio is all back in profit.
Note: I did not sell RKH or PMO on the decent of PoO (or HUR/Shell/BP) only GKP which is a pretty reliable one to trade. My reason for not selling was too scared to sell and miss out on a drop FID anouncement.
Once we can get that monkey (and Sanction) of our back it could be a more stable share ( I hope ).
Regrds Sft