Member Info for Surety

Lot more buys than sells today... for second day running...

https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/chariot-75-interest-moroccan-offshore-licences/?cf-view

DYOR

NTD. I agree with that, and again in my view, I think that is pretty much precisely how the cash situation will play out. It may be that we see it in the full year update 3 weeks again - but it will be kept low key

IMHO

His comments :

This report makes for interesting reading, for those who watched as the value drained from the two companies as the results from the Anchois-3 appeared there will be two schools of thought. For those in the Energean camp, who had just farmed into the licences, the pain was writ large as the upside was not there.

So today Energean gives back the interests in Lixus and Rissana offshore Morocco to Chariot who still think that a development, albeit rescaled project can work. They argue that downsizing will work in a country where ‘gas fundamentals are robust with strong demand and excellent fiscal terms’.

The message from Chariot as well as Morocco plc is that this development can and will go ahead and there is little doubt that one way or another anything possible will be done to make it happen. The shortage of gas around Europe makes it at least a decent bet that we haven’t heard the last of Anchois….

🙂 let’s hope so Gooner … if they can sort cash I think we’re in business with the asset suite they now have … IMV they need to prove out execution - test and prove Loukos, get Anchois moving dev wise with a decent partner and ideally secure Namibia and we’re in business as long as liquidity is ok. Cash + some execution evidence = decent rerate. Instinctively I think the chair has made a good start. Whilst we are all irritated through lack of comms, they aren’t over promising.

Re Oilt. Great question 🤨 I’ve time stamped the post and am looking forward to the nuggets (hopefully not the McDonalds kind!)

You’re right Fernan, we don’t!

Place your bets .. I’ve placed mine!

The narrative seems pretty clear

https://egyptoil-gas.com/news/chariot-takes-over-energeans-moroccan-offshore-interests/

Https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2025/05/200139/chariot-regains-control-of-moroccan-offshore-gas-licences-after-energean-exit/

Oddly, still no blog from Malcy.

I agree Ianfer, have also gone again today!

Fernan - it's really common to have 'anti embarassment' or equivalent clauses in deal structures.

It will come out in the near future as part of a broader update. The full year is due shortly as well, so it may be timed with this. They now know their full position, and can articulate exactly what the plan is

With Rigas on stage later today, I can understand the desire to carefully manage the near term message. The analysts aren't aware either, although I find it telling that Auctus havent updated and are likely holding for bigger news.

We will know more shortly.

DYOR

Why would they do that Wiggly? It has an estimated NPV of $500m even at a lowly 300BCF with no prospects tapped in. If they have cash, they may be able to also flow test Loukos - which in turn could accelerate the farmout, or allow them to proceed to a debt funded development with Onhym and Vivo

Lets see.. interesting times ahead .. the key bit will be the news on when any cash is due

Out with a good note, no mention of cash (so agree with Jimmy re keeping tight for now on cash). 300+ BCF development, NPV north of $500m and they have identified other propsects to consider hooking back (no specifics)

Sounds positive to me, nothing from Auctus yet

IMHO

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/chariot-stock-price-plunges-as-energean-quits-morocco/2-1-1819268

This sort of thing really annoys me.. plunges.. it's within the same range its been in for days!!!!

Any directional view on timelines Oilt

Are guiding toward a $500m NPV with Chariot holding 75 percent. Have identified further tie back prospects. Gas confirmed.

Also not energean have transferred their ‘wholly owned’ subsidiary re yesterdays offset discussion

I suspect there is some form on anti embarrassment in the contract which is stopping them from overly beating the drum on this specific announcement, especially today given Rigas is on stage. More news to follow shortly me thinks!

Hey Gardie,

Yep - Namibia should cause a big rerate if successful. If the partnering is quick and in principle agreed then this could move relatively quickly, and Nour in the background is helpful too - in time.

I dont see either giving Char cash quickly though - so they need another route. Possible Tharissa may give them something, but I think not until 2026 unless they sell their share.

IMHO

KNC - I dont disagree with any of that

Hopefully this bodes well for Char, and the silence pays off. I think there is a good chance it will in terms of a positive outcome

The bigger question for us to debate, while we wait IMO, is about how they can achieve 'cash sufficiency' to cover a 'reduced' G&A in the near term which is the other key aspect of this share succesfully rerating (ie belief in no dilution)

i) some form of cash settlement from Enog beyond the gain of a tax loss for future offset

ii) some form of buy in from a new partner into Anchois after the licence transfer

iii) selling some of Risanna / Lixus to a third party

iv) farmout of Loukos, with some back costs + quick subsequent testing and production

v) some form of asset backed loan against the shareholding in Etana

vi) Income from Etana

More are welcome

DYOR

Surfit - my read, it either doesnt his their WACC hurdle rate (and cash is tighter) or its a massive negotiation play

We should find out shortly..

Fernan - I think you post some good stuff on here, and whilst I agree with the broader point I think you are making; that he hasn't bought shares previously other than a small number - on this specific point re: recent buying we know the directors are in a closed period and precluded from buying (i.e. they have information that the market doesnt)

IMHO

IMHO the key extract from MR is this:

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/energean-to-rethink-morocco-gas-field-plans-after-disappointing-well-campaign/2-1-1746598

He also was quoted, not written here, as saying this gas found would suit a smaller developer. So :

i) the CEO of Energean has publicly acknowledged that there is a credible development here for a smaller operator. That is a matter of public record.

ii) in the latest proactive interview with JMW (March), he is clearly stating that they beleive in the long term value of offshore Morocco, which will be covered by an update in the near future

No doubt all of this will play out in the near future (by early June with the full year update at the latest)

IMHO

DYOR

In November's trading statement

· 2024 Group exploration reduced to $95-120 million (from $115-150) million, of which $60-75 million is associated with the continuing operations1, reflecting actual spend associated with the recent drilling operations in Morocco.

This was part of Energean's update pre having made a decision to exit you would think. Assuming they are at the lower end of the range (hisotrically conservative) gives an idea of delta they are currently presenting at the Mor sub level

DYOR