Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
Agreed alsoppc. I can’t see Ithaca (if it’s even them) wanting to miss the opportunity to announce with their results in Thursday morning .. and then having a further update a few days later with the news .. they don’t need to reference the new government deal.. simply that they are maintaining their commitment to British Waters and farming in .. or taking out and then the government update later that day.. and it all looks ideal
The NSTA knew something in late November to extend the licence.. the Nomad waved the update from Jog through.. and JOG at only a week away from the end of Q1 still haven’t flagged they expect to be outside the timeline ..
There has to be a plan .. IMHO
Dyor
Rollo - Given JOG haven’t announced anything so far - and therefore logic says they have a deal (ahead of the outcome of energy day!) I think they may be announcing on Thursday morning with the Ithaca update . I know it’s before the actual start of the energy day (the same day) as you pointed out but if Ithaca committed anyway (then they will want to include it in their update) . You would think energy day is only going to make current terms better.. assuming of course it is Ithaca !?! The government will have consulted stakeholders on this one (after the last disaster) so I imagine the industry know what’s coming ..
Let’s see
Dyor
I’m not so sure.. this is unlikely to be a total surprise to the industry.. recently the gov will have been working this through with the NSTA and key stakeholders.. Jog should have updated earlier if they haven’t got a deal. The Reuters report has been in the market for 7 days and that alone gave them scope to RNS and can kick this into Q2 due to uncertainty - which they haven’t. It makes no sense to wait to announce the delay next week. I think they could be good to go, otherwise the silence makes no sense at all. They had a credible reason. My guess is on Thursday morning with Ithaca (ahead of the announcement that day - but with the content sealed), Friday morning or the beginning of the following week - just sneaking into Q2).
DYOR
UK government expected to offer energy companies windfall tax relief
https://on.ft.com/3z33pFp
Dyor
You have to believe they have a deal of sorts. Otherwise they surely would have had to flag by now - its too close to the end of Q1 otherwise..
I think there are two key questions
i) When does the floor news land from the government (Reuters says end of this month). Are the farminees waiting until then, so to not fuel the 'no floor is required' rhetoric..
ii) Who else has a market update scheduled next week, beyond Ithaca? Are they waiting for this
DYOR
As I've said previously, if I was betting - which clearly I am on AIM ;-) I would have guessed this was their backup plan (and maybe why the NSTA waived through licence extension, and the Nomad the narrative)... but they were trying to strong arm someone else into a 2022 year end close out..
Who knows? Hopefully we will shortly
DYOR (and before you say it JS, no - I have no idea more than anyone else!)
Given the further uncertainty this creates (will they introduce a floor/remove the incentive?), I dont see anyway in which they can make the deadline
Short of being given a heads up (and maybe that is what happens), surely any producer is going to wait until there is clarity here?
DYOR
So no floor, and still talk of a floor in the future..
Were the BOD waiting to make sure no nasty surprises today before the buyer/farminee agreed? Were they waiting on a producer (like Harbour) that was hoping their PR might spur on Hunt to act today? Or were they praying that a floor was introduced as it was the last roll of the dice.. with the only deal in town conditional upon it? Or did they have multiple choices, the best of which was linked to a floor? Or.. the list goes on.....
My money is on a buyout.. Harbour or Ithaca.... But I suspect this wasnt their first choice... WDIK ?!?
Not long to wait now, at least until we get the next instalment of the drama ..
DYOR
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/489940/hunt-considers-limiting-uk-energy-profits-tax-when-prices-fall/
The worry is that this goes on and on.. and the producers wait to commit capital for a longer period until they strong arm the government into embedding the floor..
Hopefully I’m wrong!
DYOR