Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
From the OGV article
Jersey Oil & Gas has agreed to farm-out a 50% interest in the Greater Buchan Area (GBA) licences to NEO Energy. Jersey Oil & Gas is set to receive a $2 million cash payment on completion of the transaction, a $9.4 million cash payment upon finalisation of the GBA development solution, a $12.5 million cash payment on approval of the Buchan final development plan FDP by the NSTA, and $5 million in cash on each FDP approval by the NSTA in respect of the J2 and Verbier oil discoveries.
""Jersey Oil & Gas will be working in partnership with NEO to select the preferred development solution, having confirmed a short list of attractive options for the GBA which utilise existing North Sea infrastructure""
DYOR
Https://www.ogv.energy/news-item/uk-north-sea-energy-review
DYOR
UBS clearly trying to fund their Credit Suisse acquisition.. :-)
In all seriousness I am quite heartened by this.. they were clearly in for a short term sand bag… when this clears I think we’ll see a good rise…
I’d be buying not selling James… but WDIK!
DYOR
ST from the IC has completed two updates in a week, the second at such pace that he clearly thinks there is almost certain material upside (from ~ £2.77). He actually describes the deal as 'Cracking' and believes the market have badly misread it.. Simon Cawkwell also seems to believe in it..
Lots of people off for Easter, Jog's PR co can definitely improve on comms, although I accept that NEO may not be overly keen on the 'outstanding deal' point being laboured too much.. always a tricky balance
I suspect Farminee number 2 is already lined up... and.... until the deal is signed JOG also remains a takeover target IMV, especially at it's current market cap...
@Jim333 - Would be interested in your view. I know you referenced AB had indicated that the deal could run into May, and was obviously completed quickly following the last RNS! Appreciate any thoughts you may have if you're willing to share..
DYOR
Momentum is building…
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/neo-energy-moves-for-old-oilfield-g6qbfjp5n
Dyor
I know it’s been posted already, but my advice is have a thorough read .. it tells you everything you need to know..
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/04/06/jersey-oil-gas-deal-is-being-overlooked-by-investors/
This feels very positive… forget the share price today.. when this deal formally crystallises .. and management farm out their remaining target this is going to rise significantly ..
As someone said earlier, I suspect that farminee 2 is already lined up!!!!!
My suspicion is that investors of scale will get their heads around this shortly and start buying!
WTS/DYOR
All are inherently positive, perhaps unsurprisingly ..
WH Ireland - short note, essentially they are repeating their conviction buy guidance and stating this vindicates their long held view on Jog and the GBA
Key messages are they expect the share price to rise a lot. The energy crisis is just starting to bite with the language ‘game on’
Zeus - Consistent with previous Arden notes and super positive but shorter than normal.
FinnCap - Very upbeat. Stating that there is always an expectation of leakage in farmout a, but the news is exciting and they consider their 660p target (which they increased in November as ‘conservative.’ Of all the 3 brokers Finn Cap have been the most conservative historically, so I would say as an indicator this is really strong language
No doubt Simon Thompson to follow and also the Evil diaries.
Lots to look forward to in the next 2-3 weeks. My money is £300-350 pre farmout .. with a potential doubling to £7 on confirmation.
The other key point we should consider is that an exclusivity period doesn’t preclude a different third party take out bid if it’s credible.
There was an interesting extract from Proactive on Friday.. stating that regardless of the emotion from big producers toward the windfall tax the facts remain that the incentive is going to force investment .. and inevitably make the GBA attractive to large existing producers..
A major capital event may yet materialise in the next few weeks if not before as the clock runs down..
Exciting times
DYOR
3x broker notes out from Zeus (already mentioned), WH Ireland and Finncap on Friday - all very positive and worth a read..
I am convinced personally that it's Ithaca.. and I suspect there were 2 x plans for Friday depending on Thursday energy day announcing a floor.
I am also expecting a note from Simon Thompson at the IC early next week!
Happy weekends
DYOR
Well that was a day! Certainly not what I was expecting!
That said, I think dgdg1 has an interesting perspective on this.
I agree Frazer that nothing has changed since the announcement, but you can imagine the sentiment shifting since then from the producers. All of the producers play the same game - negative rhetoric, reducing capital, leaving UK shores in terms of investment deployment - all in the spirit of a floor being put in, etc etc. No producer is going to want to break from that when they think they have a chance of the government conceding on the floor. Ithaca this morning was more of the same, the Captain development is near the GBA - they hint but caution in equal measure. It might have been a different story if the floor had been announced today (and they knew in advance). I suspect it may well be introduced next week with other O&G activity as per the rest of the report.
So the question is : news tomorrow? Or wait until the floor next week and push out further.. with either silence tomorrow and a short delay com.. depends if they know something re: the communication being moved to next week re: the floor.
Jog clearly think they have something, or they would have flagged by now (You cant show an empty hand on the last day and the former Ithaca team inc Les Thomas arent naive enough to get caught in that trap). The NSTA also think they have something.. I'm fairly calm about all this
Re: other company share prices. It was always going to hit the largest non funded developments the hardest.. A producer (e.g. Harbour/Serica/Ithaca) have already taken the hit on their share prices, and Jogs price relates directly to capital investment required from the producers who are holding back in an attempt to strong arm the government into introducing a floor..
Sooner or later someone will blink.. either the government introduce the floor and the Jog deal goes through or they dont, and a producer caves and decided to use the incentive now and does a deal with Jog..
Are you really surprised it's hit Jog harder share price wise !?! In my view - sit tight.. Tomorrow or shortly after - a F/O or T/O is coming..
IMHO/DYOR