Member Info for Surety

@Fernan - I wasnt really adding the whole thing, simply making the point that I think the development will be predicated on a number higher than the base 1C. I would guess the initial development will target/be based on a version of ~354-500 range based on their narrative in recent updates.

@ starbanker. I'm not sure (ie im not certain), its a view. They dont have enough cash to cover themselves for long based on burn, even with Etana covered. Assuming the demerger takes a while the cash has to come from somewhere.

It's this language that makes me think they are on the cusp of it

'We are seeking to rescale a potential development of Anchois... progress our offshore and onshore Moroccan licences... pursue further upstream growth opportunities...' It feels too bullish otherwise, given their lack of recent commentary (no doubt impacted by the Enog deal).

IMHO

NP, Fernan

My working assumption is that they are on the verge of announcing a major deal for Anchois based on the 1 + 2C and therefore know non dilutive funding is due shortly

'Any funds raised though the Open Offer will be used to supplement the Group's working capital. As at 31 March 2025, the unaudited cash balance of the Company was US$1.2 million.'

The above was in the initial 'proposed placing' document, just beneath the use of proceeds table

Given this was end of March, and they have only raised £1.5m more - even with a materially reduced G&A this seems low.

OilTDR thinks cash from Enog in the subsidiary is a 'red herring', so assuming he/she is right, then I can only assume they have a material source of income expected shortly and with VERY high certainty, hence the scenarios I can imagine

IMHO

Dont disagree, Fernan. BUT, typically when there has been a raise the price has either gone down (definitely more so recently) / or up. Clearly, it has recently gone down - that isnt for debate.

My point wasnt about the medium term, more the immediate short term. 1.5m isnt going to get them very far at all (given the end of March position they have just declared), unless they have something else up their sleeve that's about to happen. My point was AP is unlikely to subscribe to then IMMEDIATELY raise again, and hence the 3 scenarios.

IMHO

OilTDR - conscious you've made the 'there is a reason for the £1.5m comment' a few times now.

Given AP is investing in this raise, and therefore likely believes the price will go up - it seems unlikely there is another dilution coming. I fully accept this may happen on the renewables listing (unless see point 3 below)

There I am assuming it has to be one of the following :

1. Anchois is VERY close. and I mean, as good as signed with a kickback to Chariot

2. Same as the above, but with Onshore/Loukos with a kickback to chariot - or they think they can get Loukos into production very quickly

3. They intend to sell one of the two entities (Gas or Power), and have a buyer lined up

I agree that a renewables demerger will come with a further raise / issue of new shares on listing - but this doesnt fix the funding for the gas and oil side.

Shout if I / we are missing something.

DYOR

Https://www.africa-energy.com/news-centre/article/chariot-spin-out-renewable-energy-division

Anyone have a subscription

Adding my voice to this as well, Jimmy adds significant value and I’m grateful for his insight . I suspect many of us will leave this board if that happens, OILtdr

Under subs, Surfit

Spread has always been pretty big eg 25x even before

The number in my second paragraph marked risk are right, it should simply say unrisked. I just didn’t give the total of £1.40 which is made up of a load of parts inc a very hefty valuation on Nour ie Anchois is at 10 in the unrisked but just for the 1C

Only thing worth taking out is that Anchois, Loukos, and Namibia are the key short term value drivers - although the demerger should kick power and potentially also open up the potential value of Nour!

Let’s see

DYOR

Also worth noting it's the first time I have seen Cavendish unrisked. The normal unrisked numbers are from Auctus - so a different measure

DYOR

Sorry, typo. Second paragraph was unrisked (first one risked) - which sits about £1.40 overall (so rough 100x today) - but doesnt include anything for Namibia - and definitely appears to have been reduced under 'exploration' for Lixus/Risanna.

They key point is that even the 1C (they are using ~300) at Anchois is worth 10p alone with only 30% retained by chariot. There is a lot of upside here still if things start to move. Loukos also doenst include the 100 BCF they have identified.

Had a quick look at the Cavendish risked / un-risked numbers

They have a 5.9p risked target, made up of : Loukos (0.6), Etana (1.5), Anchois (1.2) and prospective Renewables / Transitional Gas (2.6)

At a risked level, this is obviously much higher overall: but the key elements are Anchois (10) for the 1XC assuming they keep 30%, Loukos (1.2) and Etana (2). This assumes nothing for Namibia or wider Loukos prospectivity.

Ignoring the forecasts, but If Anchois and Loukos move this goes up a lot. If they secure Namibia, same again.

IMHO

Acknowledges the analysts fair value of £5.40 and previous ~£3.60 high. Has a hold on it until clarity from UK gov, talks up production acqs and through £100m tax loss

Key extracts

1. Given that the EPL is negatively impacting UK oil and gas investment, production, employment, tax revenues, and decommissioning, analysts at brokerage Zeus Capital maintain the view that the UK government will look to improve the fiscal environment for companies

2. Expect news on both consultations in the second half of the year.

DYOR

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/043eb2da-0037-474c-8964-3aa79fa73690

One of the interesting questions for us all is whether having demerged the power entity, that they think they may be a bid incoming on either the residual gas and oil - or newly formed power side. ie they think there is a buyer interested in certain assets, but not all. There was clearly a directional whole company bid pre the Enog deal (as they admitted during the Energean farmout call in December 2023) which would have been mainly predicated on the gas assets you would think?

Lets see

IMHO

Probably week after next, but agree with the sentiment Wiggly.

Will be interesting to see what they message and how they handle the going concern narrative..

IMHO

You would need to think very advanced for £1.5m, if there is nothing in the Enog sub, even with the G&A being heavily reduced

IMHO

I assume you arent going to elaborate further then OilTDR

Fernan:

You wrote:

"Maybe they are planning to use the US$ 3.5 million raised for "new ventures" to pay their own salaries and overhead costs. Why I wouldn´t be surprised if they eventually do that?"

Lets see, Fernan. The timing of declaring the cash position at end March is telling IMO given it's unaudited ie why not a day last week (they clearly have, or know they are shortly due cash). The question is from what and how much

IMHO

It's further interesting that they chose the end of March to delcare their unaudited cash position - and not the current position after the sub had transferred.