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Https://renewableenergynews.co.ke/etana-energys-solar-breakthrough-powering-south-africas-future-with-75mw/

Hi JT. I think you are right, although if Loukos is farmed out in the near future - and they move quickly with Vivo to get OBA1 flowing. The flow test looks like it’s ready to go - so this could still produce in 2025 if they can farm out quickly. I imagine the challenge will be agreeing back costs in any deal.

Ultimately I think the share price will rerate on 3 things : Gas progress, sustainable cash flow (Power/Loukos), and the Namibia award/farmout if it happens.

On power I imagine the equity piece will work something like this: Chariot secures equity funding or guarantees at the subsidiary level (like the $20M from Norfund to Etana that they have secured), Etana uses this money to buy shares in the specific project SPV (Special Purchase Vehicle). From that Chariot then take a direct economic interest through Etana without funding it from the corporate level. When production proceeds, profit is then dividended back to Chariot through Etana. Something like that.. In a smaller scale, quick to start project, this could generate income fairly quickly in my view without any risk at the corporate level..

IMHO

I suspect most are waiting for the main event - Gas and Cashflow position

More to follow

IMHO

Jefferies have upgraded Enog, somewhat ironically, after the cancellation of the asset sale and the change to the special dividend. Sounds like eyes will be on managing the assets no longer being sold - which in turn would make sense for Enog to ‘transfer’ the Moroccan licences asap to cancel out the risk of distraction

https://uk.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/energean-stock-rating-raised-to-hold-by-jefferies-pt-to-gbp910-93CH-4004555

IMHO

Note the upweight in language used in the last RNS

§ In order to both accelerate potential value creation from JOG's existing UK tax allowances of over $100 million and bring cash flow into the business, a number of potential UK producing asset acquisitions are being actively evaluated.

I’ll respectfully agree to disagree with you both on this … although make the point I really value the contribution you both make to this forum.

I don’t think the current chair and balance of the board are going to just wait for that

There are other ways to fund it beyond the current liquidity balance ..

Let’s see …

IMHO

I think the other interesting point of note is whether or not Jog acquire a producing asset in the interim...

DYOR

JT - I am assuming they applied with the offshore round which closed October 2024. Looking at history, it looks like it runs arounds 6 months from close to announcement. No doubt they are dealing with more applicants. Expecting some form of update during Q2. Given they keep referencing it in every update they give to Proactive, I am assuming they remain optimstic

I think those are precisely the two key points, Shax

1. How much cash left, state of the non funded G&A profile, and what is the income profile moving forward to avoid dilution (Anchois transfer payment? Loukos backcosts? Equity with power?) and

2. What is happening with Anchois licence, and can Chariot outline a path to FID in reasonable time

In the very short term, the only two things that matter short term re 'kicking' the price

IMHO

I was just trying to piece together the detail

Loukos is jury out - but a deal will likely be done, Cash sounds ok until later in the year?? power unexpected good news, licence transfer good news if it happens..

Trying to work out bad news? Namibia? But they were still talking about that (ish) when they updated on power recently.. Hydrogen? But seems to be moving along?

DYOR

I think that's a 'buy' recommendation from then, SOTB

The article in the link is 2 weeks old. Fair to say that Anchois is right in the middle of their gas thinking, I think thats obvious.

It’s from a mix of different sources and an attempt to summarise what they’re doing, Fernan - not a specific document.

I thought the gas and hydrogen fusion is interesting, which seem to be where their efforts are currently focused - playing specifically to two areas where chariot are engaged

Recent comments from their energy minister make me think Anchois is very much in their thinking (someone has posted the below recently)

https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/oil-and-gas/morocco-to-launch-6bln-tender-for-natural-gas-infrastructure-wq7bg3z7

IMHO

Summary extract from Morocco's energy strategy from a compilation of different sources...

Somewhat ironically, although not by chance, Chariot is perfectly set to benefit from this on a number of levels

DYOR

Morocco is actively advancing its ambitions in the green hydrogen and power-to-X (P2X) sectors while simultaneously enhancing its natural gas infrastructure. The government plans to invest approximately $6 billion in developing liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and related infrastructure, aiming to strengthen the country's gas capacity to meet growing energy demands. This initiative includes establishing LNG import terminals in Nador, Dakhla, and either Mohammedia or Jorf Lasfar, with completion dates ranging from 2027 to 2030. Additionally, Morocco is progressing with the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline project, with the first phase of its tender process slated for 2025. ​

In the realm of green hydrogen, Morocco is intensifying efforts to attract renewable hydrogen project developers. The government is finalizing the 'Moroccan Offer,' designed to provide a stable and clear framework for investors, covering aspects such as land allocation and infrastructure development. The Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy (Masen) will serve as the single point of contact for project developers, aiming to fast-track the development of renewable hydrogen in the country. ​

----

These initiatives reflect Morocco's commitment to diversifying its energy mix, reducing reliance on imported fuels, and positioning itself as a key player in the global green energy market.

Https://channeleye.media/babbe-acts-for-chariot-in-south-africas-largest-transaction-involving-energy-wheeling/

You should be fine in which case, DU!!!!!! 😂

In all seriousness, glad ok

Marland - I suspect that Enog being at the bottom (instead of the top) means they were doing the bare minimum until Enog updated the market last week. Given they have taken an impairment against Morocco, I think it's highly unlikely..

However, I think Chariot are probably sending a messgae on what they're doing..... Game On!

Oiltdr - any others insights on timings you can share?

I think JT is right. It’s the 10 percent dilution from the issue of new shares. DW and JMW didn’t buy a great deal, so management would have been diluted. Conversely AP subscribed heavily so hence the limited move in his holding. AA shares look about right when you factor in the dilution vs the last TRI (assuming he didn’t subscribe) but the previous comp looks odd as it’s some distance from the TR1?

IMHO

Good work Surfit, helpful to have the comps!