RE: Total funding for ETANA. Valuation of Char´s stake23 Mar 2025 16:33
Agree with much of what you write on renewables / hydro, Surfit. I’m curious as to what’s happened at essakane (I’m sure it made sense to sell it, perhaps partly for safety reasons) with regard to the partnership with Total. I am fairly certain Total will consider Chariot of growing value ..
In terms of O&G I still think a lot of value lies in Anchois, and am less hasty to discard that. If, following analysis, they have concluded that there is somewhere between the 1c and 2c (range 360-637 bcf) then that’s worth a lot. One good thing to come out of this is Energean rhetoric that there is ‘definitely gas there’ but more suited to a smaller player.
Auctus are valuing chariots unrisked share at 15p (currently risked at 2p - 15 percent) for just the 1C. If there is a midpoint between the ranges then it’s say 20p +
That’s based on their current 30 percent share and assumes nothing for broader Loukos and Risanna.
If Chariot could retain at least 30 percent with a new partner the risking will reduce materially. If it moves to 75 percent chance of development Anchois adds 10-15p just for starting.
Even if you half this to Gardie’s point about analysts valuations, it’s still another 5-8p on the share price. In other words it’s the fastest and nearest term value driver IMV
Add Namibia, which they talk about every time they update (so they must think they’ve got it?) and things move further forward in terms of asset value.
Appreciate I’ve said this a few times, but I strongly wonder if Total are in play here …
-They are in Morocco with Vivo - albeit on aviation fuel
-Nour in Mauritania
-Highly active on the Atlantic margins / orange basin in Namibia
-And .. we are partnered with them on elements of Power(Tharissa). I imagine Etana might well be interesting to them.
They also have Elliot breathing down their neck ..
In that sense I think the O&G side (Anchois+ and Namibia) are the things that will yield the greatest outcome for us as shareholders in the short/medium term
IMHO
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