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Unlikely to be NEO with their current parentage... I struggle to see anyone shelling out on the CNS for a current non producing asset (until the political uncertainty clears)... although I really hope I'm wrong on this
I remain very pro JOG over the medium term...
DYOR
I am thinking B/O. If you include the BO option you have a deal.
If Loukos and Anchois come in and Energean exercise the option I think that’s probable (a buyout at over 50). Assuming they have probably knocked back 25+ already..
Does anyone have a subscription .. I suspect not at this price unless they are industry folk!
You get the gist from the opening teaser though … I can’t help but think that Morocco wouldn’t have sanctioned Energean if they were giving assurances that they were in (subject to the drill). And Duncan/AP would have taken the ‘offer’ if they were convinced the ‘asset’ wouldn’t yield the right result ..
A surprise at Loukos, Anchois in the bag and goodbye to MR CFD.. plus a bump from the divestment of power and more talk from the EU from Hydro and our 100p is looking up
https://pemedianetwork.com/petroleum-economist/articles/upstream/2024/gas-discovery-could-transform-morocco/
Good post btw Snott! Make me feel better anyway…
DYOR
Exactly. Im not an expert, but - if they are closing a CFD which they are short on, they have to buy. They might do this through the use of a limit order which, in absence of others buying, would theoretically keep the price low ..
Cavendish (Was Cenkos) have c. 71p if Energean take the option of the extra 10% and fund, with their current guidance at 58p. Stifel and Peel Hunt are at the lower end, with the lowest target at 35p. Auctus are in the middle at 50p and SP Angel seem to be increasingly bullish about M&A on high risk exploration assets.
On the 18th March, Stifel then published a short note saying the Power business in a full divestment could be worth 10p. Clearly ambitious, but interesting against the relative backdrop of a c. 35p target..
Of particular interest though is that Auctus then published a note on the 10th April referred to as 'gearing up to drill' The note relates to Loukos and Anchois, with an emphasis on Chariot prioritising Gas. No surprises.... ;-)
It was this note that I found particularly interesting though in terms of the reference to Loukos. They are quoted as saying 'there is more value there than we originally thought due to the deeper plays.' They value Gaufrette at 6p for 10 BCF unrisked a further+2p for the deeper sands and 4p unrisked for the wider Dartois area at 12 BCF. This totals 12-13p with rounding.. for 22 BCF.
The point is that if Jimmy's view is right and there is significantly more in Loukos this should seriously rocket.
DYOR
It is utterly bizarre that someone would hold a short position (if indeed they do) given the imminent drill news and the strategic review of power underway.... If Jimmy is even partly right on the 1TCF point at Gaufrette in the deeper reservoir, that's up to 10x the existing estimate for all of Loukos (100 BCF). That alone would rocket the price, you would think, or trigger a takeover. Auctus valued Loukos in their most recent note at ~14p per share based on the two wells .. Add Anchois Success, Power Divestment and the Green Hydrogen...
And yet even over the last two days there are some hefty £80k, £50k, etc trades.. and a potential short position
It's very odd!!!
DYOR