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The ST post is super clear. He thinks it’s a cracking deal.. as he said when investors realise what this is, the shares will materially rise. The question is how long that takes.. second farm out and FID are clearly key decisions to unpacking the upside. If you look at his posting history on Jog it’s every 6 ish months.. nothing has changed since his last post. I suspect the next farmout will trigger the next post..
DYOR, his last post stands as far as I’m concerned !!!
Surely the point is they needed the funds: i) to secure the farmout and make the announcement i.e. liquidity not being used as a lever for the farminee to improve terms ii) secure the licence risk if the fairways were extending into an different onshore licence area ?!? iii) Becoming cash generative earlier given Anchois will be mid 2025 (and therefore more attractive to institutions) iv) Related to point iii - Create a continuous trigger news flow which theoretically means the institutions are less likely to cut and run. In all cases they needed the funds to do the deal, to make the announcement..
IMHO
The Directors plan to pursue the material upside potential within this block and kick start a drilling campaign as quickly as possible. A four well work programme is planned, targeting high-graded prospects ranging from 8-18 Bcf of best estimate prospective resource potential (Chariot preliminary internal estimates). With rigs available in-country, the Directors expect the well programme to be carried out in the near term. Each well is expected to cost approximately US$3 million to drill. The Directors anticipate that first gas production from the new onshore Moroccan Licence could commence ahead of Anchois development cashflows. The drilling of these wells will also have important read-through to the offshore prospect portfolio due to the reservoir fairways that extend across the areas. It is expected that the terms of the new onshore Moroccan Licence will be substantively similar to the terms of the Company's existing Moroccan licences.
IMHO
I'm not defending them.. I dont like it any more than anyone else.. but worth nothing the below in the last Auctus broker note :
The key criteria for selecting a preferred partner include (in order of importance) (1) the capability of the partner to fund and deliver the project rapidly, (2) the stake in Anchois that Chariot would keep and (3) the amount of the upfront cash payment.
Note the 3rd criteria point is cash.. I would prefer they did a fund raise now and prioritised the first 2. If they are getting squeezed on point 3 this can only help..
Like Hubenstein the prospect of drilling and accelerating first gas timescale (potentially only adds value)
I'm not ramping... just giving a slightly different perspective..
IMHO
You have to laugh.... I am expecting an IC piece either on Thursday or Friday... so hopefully that stokes it a bit.. AP Angel were talking up M&A activity ramping up finally for O&G...
After a 12M period that saw significant cash flows used primarily to de-lever balance sheets and return cash to shareholders, we think the M&A market for higher risk exploration and development assets is finally starting to reflect increasing activity levels.
WHI
We reiterate our 684p fair value estimate for Jersey Oil & Gas, which is premised on an $85/b long-term oil price. We have a positive outlook for oil prices and sentiment for oil & gas stocks in 2H 2023. All in all, today’s announcement is significantly positive, and we expect the news to be well received by the market.
DYOR
So, it is full steam ahead for JOG on what will be an exciting journey, it has done a remarkable deal on the GBA and now reap the rewards of that process. It can now press on with the ‘unlocking’ that CEO Andrew Benitz refers to above and be able to decide how to play it going forward, either way they are in an enviable situation.
JOG must be one of the biggest stores of value that I have ever seen in the market, my target price of £10 per share could even be light, this is a long term, high added value situation which investors should look at very closely.
Https://on.ft.com/3CCEbiB
DYOR - builds on Jimmy's comments..
Note the increasing narrative surrounding Green Hydrogen...
https://on.ft.com/43HANyZ
DYOR
Https://jerseyeveningpost.com/morenews/uknews/2023/06/14/shell-scraps-plan-to-cut-oil-production-1-2-per-year-hikes-shareholder-payouts/
DYOR, but highly relevant of the
Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-13/fortescue-touts-africa-potential-common-currency-new-economy?srnd=premium-uk
See header below as part of the above link :
Morocco Seeking Investors for Green Hydrogen Project (June 13, 3:30 p.m.)
DYOR
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/JOG/standard-form-for-notification-of-major-holdings-bq6udguad14aw2i.html
Https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/evil-diaries-be-careful-what-you-wish-for/
Jog tipped again!! Reference to Malcy and Simon T at the IC
Dyor
There aren't exactly a ridiculous amount of transactions going through.. I suspect someone is still selling and we are yet to attract meaningful institutions (and therefore very little buying) due to the lack of deal formality and the certainty of a second farmout partner...
WHI's take on H2 around demand picking up also interesting...
Sit tight - IMHO, news flow due short to medium term and a useful 6 months ahead..