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Interesting. Got mine on Friday Obscure.

Other point of interest on the same note was that they are in discussions on Loukos, albeit this is ‘non core’

DYOR

I noticed this toward the bottom of one of the Feb broker notes announcing the Angola move

Company is still progressing its multi-billion-barrel opportunity in Namibia, where it currently holds a ten percent back in right in its previously operated 2714 A&B blocks. Process has been delayed but management is encouraged by the progress made to date.

I thought interesting...

Its only a paragraph in amongst their other stocks. Just confirming the fund raising, the AP take up of the open offer, etc. In their last full note they said they would publish a target price when the SPA is signed, so expecting a full update then.

Thanks Obscure - whilst I think completion may take a few months subject to gov ratification (or less) I think the SPA is the next 0-4 weeks at a guess.

IMHO

Obscure - where did you get the deal compleition date from? Assume one of the RNS docs?

I am assuming that they are going to have to sign the SPA in the next 2-4 weeks, especially given they are enacting a preemption.. ?!? I am assuming the deal timing is later ? Thoughts welcome

IMHO

I'm not saying they are - my point was in response to Obscure's share price comment (read below) and that other things will also determine the price

There is a reason why they havent provided an update yet/indicated one - which is that I suspect they will only trumpet the Angola deal once the SPA is signed. However, since you mention it, I suspect that the funding and backstop of that are also potentially helpful for Anchois negotiation, Namibia licence access? So in that sense I suspect all of this is intrinsically linked.

IMHO

I suspect it will depend on what happens to Morocco, Namibia and Power..

IMHO

Https://www.atalayar.com/en/articulo/economy-and-business/morocco-commits-to-green-hydrogen-new-energy-link-with-europe/20260310100000223893.amp.html

Looks like a chunk of change. Buy or sell? Not that it really matters, because someone bought it!

The only thing I'd say to the contrary surfit (and you may well be right re tomorrow), is that they have executed a large raise at broadly the same price it's tracked at for the last year. It appears more buys than sells today by a 2:1 if I believe the data..

The new buyers clearly believe they can make money in the medium term and there are some new institutions in the mix. Admittedly they could dump their shares and just hold the warrants as a no risk bet as to whether or not it goes up - but I suspect most are betting it will rise 4-5x from here at least, otherwise why bother buying in (even the warrants needs to be 2x higher than the 2.4 for it to make sense, which is 3.5 x higher than today. I get the highend upside has gone at 15-20x, but I think (and hope) the outcome will be 6-8 by year end

Lets see..

IMHO

JT, agree - as soon as that SPA is signed they owe shareholders a full update on the whole plan!

The undersubscription (which surprised me, given the opportunity to sell and rebuy with a warrant for an upside) speaks volumes about how their base is feeling!!

IMHO

Thanks - couldnt see it on the original LSE feed

Seems to be taking some time to conclude....

IMHO

I take a little comfort from the fact AP has bought a lot at $2m this time at a 1.4 price. I also suspect Surfit that to drive a better deal in Morocco they needed this. They need the producing liquidity security to attract the institutions again. A low warrant hurdle also makes it attractive for them. I am hoping it also helps with Namibia, as that's the game I think we're now in

Based on Cavendish saying they wont update the target price until the SPA is signed - I suspect they are going to point to something specific in the SPA and dont want the terms revised down by calling it before the signing

I would imagine the investor update will be scheduled shortly after the signing

IMHO

IMHO

Hi Surfit. I can’t see them updating until after the SPA is signed on Angola.

IMHO

Https://lematin.ma/economie/gaz-au-maroc-le-point-sur-les-projets-avec-amina-benkhadra/332810

I hear you

I suspect Murphy are our new partner. They don’t need to drill for 3 years on their new licence and I can’t imagine given their background and reputation and need for optionally beyond shale they are going to sit quietly

The funds will make the negotiation better for char hopefully

Hey

The new shares in aggregate ex the Warrants are 46% of the issued share capital in aggregate assuming the open offer is subscribed in full (obviously no warrants executed at this point). The market cap today is worth £25.2, so it needs to rise to £47m to hold 1.4p.

They then need to convince the market that they are:

i) Sign SPA, now funded to first cash flow (removing further dilution risk)

ii) the Angola deal is material in value

iii) Can monetise the renewables - and point the funds toward something else upstream that could add to value

iv) I also have a niggling suspicion that all of this is necessary for the Namibians to issue a new licence ?!?

v) Can negotiate a good deal with Anchois inc some back costs?

I think if they can have a good 3-6 months the price can move materially (3-4x +) even with the warrants exercising.

All IMHO

Hey Surfit,

He may not see this as a massive hit. If the share price doesnt fall below 1.4 - which is part of the range it has been stuck in for some time he may well see the only way to uplift it through developing new ventures. Yes the number of shares go up materially and dilute future upside - but he may be resigned to the fact that the only way to get investor and institutional confidence is to have cash and a cash producing asset - and therefore assuming it doesnt dip further the only was is up...

He's putting a lot of money in...

DYOR

Ripley. I think people will sell to buy into the open offer and gain the upside of the warrants?

Don’t see a buy back. They will sell the renewables and invest it upstream