Member Info for Surety

If chariot and etu move on this with a similar deal structure, that should be worth a further $150m + NPV to chariot on top of the existing $100m they have with the existing deal

IMHO

Wizard - it has a read through value of $34m. I suspect you’ll find it’s in the $50-100m range.

IMHO

I meant to write that got distracted, good point!

It may not take long if they

Go again with Etu - I suspect they only have until c. Mid May if they are going to ‘step in’

Secure greater share of existing orange basin blocks

Either farm out Namibia and Anchois (preferably both)

Next 4-5 months particularly interesting for me..

IMHO

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WhNRvg0gws

Looks like the the bill is being accelerated...

Hi KNC. Yes definitely re Anchois.

I am hoping this year we get : cash flow from Angola, more defelopment in Angola, ideally something major with Etu(as per below), Namibia licences award, Farmout of Anchois and on a smaller scale Loukos and sale of power

…..

Let’s see

I agree Klein

Listened to the Webinar again on a journey today and a few bits really stood out.

I) JMW Comments at the end of the power section. They are clearly selling, with an IPO unlikely. Sounds unlikely the buyer is ACWA.

II) In response to the Energean question in the Q&A Adonis makes clear they will work with anyone, as long as it’s within the rules…… wonder what he meant by that. He works hard not to mention Energean by name.

III) He definitely answers the question without hesitation that the balance of the Shell facility can be used for other things. They clearly intend to do this IMHO

IV) there is a reference to further Angola activity with Etu. I sense they are guiding strongly to that as their next upstream play

All of this makes me more curious as to whether or not they about to preempt Energean ?!? There would be something ironic about it …

Lastly in Namibia it’s clear they are in for a greater share of 2714 A&B where they reference other blocks being largely all taken in the orange basin and Total engaging nearby and describing the play as the golden triangle. There is a reference in a presentation to things starting to move once the ownership formally moves under the presidency. That is due in the next 1-2 months.

🙂

Https://www.bitget.com/amp/news/detail/12560605354660

The other interesting point here - is that if they sell power (with an investment plan) for say $50-100m the share price will rise c. 2-3x , and may trigger the purchase option for some/many on the warrants which is worth a further $40m+ dollars if all play..

This would materially enhance their cash position..

IMHO

Exactly what's going through my mind JT re premption - the way they describe the focus on upstream plus other commentators (Malcy) is screaming they are selling

New broker appointed too...

Lets see...

Having reread the footer on power, it is clear to me they are selling it

Will be interested to see what they say on power and if they have had any offers. Also curious as to their view on Energeans Angola play - not to mention progress on Anchois and Namibia and roadmap timings...

IMHO

I am still of the view things could change quickly here, IF some of the following happen

-They sell power

-Do a deal on Loukos (Cavendish say non core asset, but they are currently in talks - and have the probability of an outcome at 50%)

-Farmout Anchois. Having re-read the note they are hinting the farm-out would be attractive to a new entrant(s). Surely code for Murphy, there are currently no other new entrants to be knowledge

-Namibia licence - again the narrative is that whilst the process has been delayed, management encouraged by progress.

-Sell Power (Nour and Etana) -

-Announce another upstream deal, The note infers this is very much a long term partnership with ETU who are the leading Angolan producer… a preemption now perhaps..

IMHO

We see the Block 14/14K transaction as being the first step for the Chariot/Etu partnership as Chariot is focused on growth and future cash flows / Etu looks further strengthen its position as the leading independent Angolan oil producer.

DYOR

I think the big question now looking at the balance of this year is what else it unlocks..

Note the comment in the last Cavendish note about the positive progress made in Namibia (Feb). Note also conversations on Loukos and Anchois. They are in a stronger permission to negotiate now. This may change things materially in the short to medium term. If Power is indeed sold for anything credible inc Nour - and they look further at other upstream deals this will further add a tailwind as suddenly they have liquidity which should also massively improve their negotiating leverage. I think things could, as I stress 'think&could', change quite quickly re the SP this year

Re Market Cap calcs - if they get $50-75m for Power, farm-out Anchois for a low capex development with an exploration agenda in time - and secure a multi billion barrel licence in a reasonable spot in Namibia that market cap is definitely feasible. They were at just shy of £200m in 2022, in a favourable environment, with just Anchois really. Energy security is back in the spotlight again..

It's also worth noting if the warrants are fully executed it puts another c. £20m+ cash in the bank.

I maintain that IMHO things can now change quite quickly here.....

IMHO

For interest, Cavendish have increased the target to 7.2p from just under 6p (that was before the dilution). Unrisked is much higher. Anchois 1 and Loukos unrisked is about 8p.

Not ramping, just sharing

DYOR

It was the 'risked' version from Cavendish - so low. Unrisked they had the 1c Anchois with a 30% hold at 10p. Note it was before this raise. No inclusion for Angola

The broker forecasts are way out of date. The last one I saw was Cavendish at about 6p before the recent raise. I think most will update when the SPA is signed

IMHO

It would be super interesting if ACWA bought chariot out of the Power business, leaving chariot with the funds to support the enog preemption if Shell raised their relative funding... now that would be interesting.. Etu want to be the preeminent producer in Angola..

In other news - this is the analyst comments from the original Angola paper

DYOR

Across the wider portfolio, Chariot has been working on re-scoping the offshore Anchois gas development to optimise a development plan with substantially reduced capex. Murphy has recently secured acreage adjacent to Chariot’s blocks, and with other upstream companies continuing to show interest in exploration acreage in-country, Chariot’s acreage could offer an attractive farm-out opportunity for new entrants. Onshore Morocco, Chariot is in discussions with parties interested in the Loukos acreage. Whilst this is not a core area of focus, the Company is assessing the next steps for this licence.

Good spot. I wonder if this is a precursor for the power transaction.. Any other changes?