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Agree JT, there is very little in the SP for anything.

The price will be most volatile to any form of Anchois news, so in that sense any hint of opportunity including a re-explore is helpful.. As you say though Fernan, how to fund without dilution.. They have to find a way of getting Loukos into some form of production!!!!

One for you Surfit, which definitely has some medium term value..

https://www.openpr.com/news/3895318/mauritania-s-energy-ambitions-a-game-changer-for-africa-s

DYOR

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Why-Gas-Prices-Have-Doubled-Over-the-Last-Year.html

Https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24977857.north-sea-oil-player-deal-drive-awaits-buchan-horst-clarity/

Good headline re Huge project

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/03/03/lord-mackinlay-ed-miliband-net-zero-spreading-sepsis/

Surfit, agree

If OilTDR is right, by the nature it’s known they have to announce it if correct. Especially as it’s been written ..

DYOR

Oiltdr - Assuming you are right, that doesnt sound great (although it clearly depends on the weighting factor of the good news. If the good news in Anchois or Namibia, preferably the former this is good.. if it's power alone that may be less true...

With this in mind, do you still feel moderately bullish as per your December post where you said:

I’m actually moderately bullish from here. The transitional power underpins the share price by 2x and the market will do a value discovery exercise as more news is released on this. The funding access allows huge value creation.

Separately whilst I understand that ENOG won’t be developing anchois there has been some discussion over unitising the license to allow chariot to deal with anchois. Personally this makes no sense to me as clearly drilling the rest of the license would. Be with a view to firming up volumes and a wider development.

Onshore is frustrating but having cost taken a way through farm out and a wider drilling programme can only be value accretive. I suspect Jimmy is right on the seismic but I havnt heard anything about it.

There’s significant upside from here as clarity is provided. I would just add that Morocco will want anchors developed as one of the largest discoveries offshore - this will be a priority for them.

Assuming it's the same party as last week (~1%), they cant have a lot left.... that's 2% of the market cap this evening..

TR1 at some point next week I would imagine..

IMHO

Note comments re: Etana... and the general direction of travel re: power needs rising. Even doomonger Harry 🤣 thinks this is worth something.... have a read of his note!!!!!

https://www.sems.qmul.ac.uk/news/7094/dr-paul-balcombe-and-dr-patrick-cullen-form-company-to-tackle-methane-emissions-on-natural-gas-powered-ships/

https://www.africa-energy.com/news-centre/article/offtaker-advantages-mean-africas-mining-ci-power-boom-set

DYOR

That is another exceptional piece of research and prophecy, HC....

Well done!

😂buys than sells!!

Hey Surfit

Try to keep smiling... this could bounce very quickly the other way. The last 2 days (albeit on small volume) have seen a lot more sells than buys. It more than doubled shortly after it crash for no apparent reason a few months ago.

If they pull a rabbit out of the hat - which they easily could.... Anchois goes ahead to FID quickly ($15m), Namibia and rapid partnering (??), Loukos farmout with back costs, Power Financing (they sell more of their 49% on financing). There are a myriad of things that could happen

I hate the thought - but they could raise $6m at the current level to buy time (another 6 months?). With the right story someone might go for that, or it could prompt an all out takeover. BTW, I am not advocating this for one second.. not one, but I am trying to reeneforce the point we arent dead yet - and even in that scenario if they did that if would be worth multiples of today's price (even with hefty dilution) if they land Anchois, Power, Loukos, Namibia., Hydrogen (or say 2 or 3 of the 5).

The current cash could also stretch materially further than my previous estimate.. if they bring their burn down to $1m per month we are good until July/August for example (they could also recover some of it from current processes).

AP's other businesses are all london listed. I suspect the ability to raise public money is important, so I personally think they will try and keep it this way. Reputations are also worth something - for AP in particular. It would be harmful to him personally

At a minimum I think they could agree with Onyhm to run with Loukos funded by a Soc Gen banking consortium. That alone is worth something.

I personally dont think we're dead yet - nor do I think there is an 80% certainty of it. This can all change in a heartbeat. It went from 1.6 to 10 in weeks not that long ago... and there is more in the pipeline this time from an asset perspective.

I'm not ramping - but I am trying to provide some facts (unlike other doomongers) against which PIs should consider risk

In summary, and IMHO, nowhere near over yet....

DYOR

Good find btw JT.

Fernans point is right re attractiveness. Whilst it might not meet their internal IRR… add Risanna and the fact Enog need a new territory story and you would think they would play for the right gas price

Someone quoted Rigas the other evening saying he was making noise in the market about others (non Morocco related) not procrastinating and essentially just getting with development

With that in mind the path they take in Morocco should be interesting

I am hoping they kick on with A2 .. whilst thinking about further exploration

We should know shortly. Agree on March timing .,

IMHO

Agree with Gardie. It’s what they’re not saying that’s important at this stage. They have made public statements through media inferring that they are most likely out. Their formal paperwork however says they are potentially still in - so in my view they are negotiating …

In the op update they gave recently that state Morocco is a country in which they are continuing ops (footnote)

IMHO

Harry. Just over 2 months ago the CFO told proactive :

Proactive: Could you provide an update on Chariot’s gas projects in Morocco?

Maurice-Williams: Our recent drilling results in Morocco didn’t meet initial expectations, but the overall economic potential of the project remains strong.

We are confident in its long-term value and will continue to refine our approach to ensure optimal outcomes.

What evidence do you have to back up your latest version of the truth?

DYOR

Agree Fernan. If you roll in the need for a story for Enog beyond their current borders… and the potential of Risanna it’s hard to imagine them not striking a deal here …

IMHO

The Karo mine was also posted on linked in recently...

Worth remembering, It wont take much volume buying to shift this upwards, rapidly either..

DYOR

Good note, Surfit

I think there are two ways you can look at this. Either they are not engaged, or they are very engaged

The volumes aren't big enough for this to be a leak IMHO. Even yesterday's massive sell was only 0.4% of the lowly market cap. I think the issue is almost quite the reverse.. they arent leaking, and therefore noone is Buying... or really Selling.. and therefore the price is slowly sliding...

The SP sky rocketed from about 1+ pence to over 10p a few years ago in only weeks. From memory that was predicated on Anchois gas.

I cant imagine that they are sitting idly in the background. Conversations will be taking place on i) power ii) Anchois iii) probably Loukos iv) Hydrogen and v) Namibia

If they suddenly announce they have a path to Anchois Dev with Enog (keen to please Morroco and further explore Risanna), Namibia has come off and they have farmed out or are going it alone on Loukos with Onhym funded by a Soc Gen arranged consortium then the SP could well experience something similar. Add cash to that from one of those sources to cover a reduced G&A and things look better again.

It is interesting that the new chair has made a clear statement they are focused on shareholder value on his appontment, but there has been little since. I suspect that they are trying to avoid further hanging themselves on dates - ie new broom... 'dont over promise.' They have indicated they are doing ALL of these things in the power update on 4th Dec. Listen to the webcast through proactive again or read the narrative if you need to..

If they are mid negotation on multiple things then they are unlikely to want to give an update mid flow. There will be interdependencies and worse still you are giving the partner you are in negotiation with a noose to pull tight around your neck

It is possible little is happening - it's also possible a LOT is happening (their last Proactive update, the interims and the IC post all confirm the LOT scneario).

The two major timeframes are ENOG concluding their path (which Chariot will be gagged on until they do + agree with the Mor Gov) and the grant of the Namibian Licence. They also need cash and reduced costs. I would guess Loukos is tied up in this, but probably part of a broader announcement.

It's a gamble... but the odds in my view are better than the A3 drill. As GP pointed out... who knows what's bubbling beneath!

DYOR

Interesting that they are all London listed PLCs, Ianfer

It’s 0.4% of the market cap… reality is few sales and even fewer buys until news…

DYOR

BDC - take this in the spirit it’s intended, as I think you’ve historically been a really good member of this board and add a lot of value.

When did AP have that much holding wise? I think he’s had around 8% for some time? He participated heavily in the last raise for example.

He will not have been able to buy in the autumn/winter as they will in a closed period. I am not implying he would have - or defending management. I’m simply saying I believe he can’t buy right now. If any of : power, Loukos, Anchois or Namibia come off in the next 1-2 months he will have had market sensitive knowledge on that. Same applies to the other directors - which is why I believe the chair didn’t buy on his appointment (a trade was reversed).

DYOR