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Hopefully it’s more that this is the low from which we start to rebuild…

Time will tell, relatively shortly…

DYOR

I guess same as it hitting 1.81 yesterday Ianfer..

Agree on news - I suspect they have another 2-4 months of cash runway ..

IMHO

Hard to tell ObScure

Yes you're right re the investment this year re: Capex. However they make the point clear that they are looking to sign regional gas agreements, which is suitably opaque.

At the bottom of the same statement they make it clear that they are active in Morocco. Given Rigas has made clear to the trade press that he's out, it is odd that he hasnt formally confirmed it. He has also made clear a smaller operator could develop it and then found gas

Chariot on the 4th December have said they beleive in the long term economics of the project, and reiterate they are working through potential developments with partners, including the one that is the operator. The value of Chariots share of the 1c is 15p per share on the current deal structure..

I can only assume negotiations on gas prices, likely with Morocco, continue...

No doubt more to follow

DYOR

I think we can agree it’s all over the place. It was green yesterday, red the day before, and generally is trapped in a 1.50-1.80 range. It will probably stay there until we get news as the buys and sells are small

The point is we need news. Power and Loukos updates are due in the next 0-8 weeks I suspect.

DYOR

Thanks Jim, that’s good to hear

I read Equinors note this morning with interest in terms of how they are now thinking about the balance between Fossil Fuels and Renewables

Appears to have retired us from his bucket list, you have to smile!

DYOR

Appears to have removed us from his bucket list, amongst others. Slightly odd given he's recently referenced a revised Anchois not being out of the question, and the progress being made on power.

His bucket list hasnt exactly been loaded with historic winners, so it personally doesnt concern me

IMHO

Is more compelling by the day…

The gov need tax receipts… they also need energy security .. the case couldn’t be any more clear for Buchan

IMHO

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1065581/shell-flags-emerging-markets-opportunity-ahead-of-investor-day-citi-1065581.html

Good that you’ve acknowledged that you think they’ve cut costs then, Harry!!

Good reminder posts, Surfit!! Whilst gas prices will no doubt be volatile, it is also a stark reminder that countries need energy security (probably more than ever) with the level of change and unpredictability.

Morocco will want Anchois and Loukos developed for precisely this reason.

The waiting continues

IMHO..

Https://on.ft.com/3X7xoZh

Bang on Stoneyloon!

Fernan - I think the update was the 9th December 2024 where he had 5.9%. I think he’s likely still aboard (to some degree), otherwise we would have felt the sell off of that quantum of shares in Jan..

IMHO

I think the big point in all of this, is that AP would take a bath if they raise.. It’s in his interests to avoid any significant capital raise. Even with his char salary, he would lose heavily even over several years if the price doesn’t recover materially to above say ~10. Whilst I think that DW and JMW aren’t really invested - in that sense, I do think AP is more aligned with PIs

They have made clear at the interims that they are trying to fund it at the sub level.. which was a change in language. Hockey made clear that they were focused on shareholder returns on his appointment in October. The December interview inferred the same point around long term value.

AP might go it alone with AA providing some liquidity in a buyout, but he would cut his access to public money in the future so I think personally pretty unlikely ?

Re the price Surfit - it’s fluctuated during Jan so far. Its hit 1.5 and been at 2. I think hard to say being run down - more no one really selling or buying IMHO

Sadly, as uncomfortable as it feels - it’s a waiting game!

IMHo

*Got = has

Also worth noting that Auctus have 3 x Loukos prospects valued at a further 15p on an unrisked basis. Those + 1C ONLY at Anchois are worth 30p alone

Again, I am not making a forecast on the SP. I am simply pointing out that the inherent value of the Moroccan Gas per share (On and particularly Offshore) has the ability to create a material rerate if i) there is positive news flow on either and ii) related to this they sort the financing out

DYOR

This link got an interview transcript -

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1062281/chariot-s-renewables-business-in-south-africa-saw-a-big-funding-breakthrough-icymi-1062281.html

On Morroco and Gas. This below quote is less than 2 months old. Note the point on Long Term Value. Energean have also confirmed it can be developed - but the economics are more suitable for a smaller player (TBC as to whether Enog are negotiating on this).

To put it into context, Auctus think the unrisked basic 1C (365 BCF) on Anchois is worth 15p per share alone on the current deal structure. I’m not suggesting the price will go to that immediately - but it gives an idea of the value inherent within Anchois if there is any positive news flow on this (and that’s just chariots share of the 1C). None of this is in the current price

Extract from Proactive -

Proactive: Could you provide an update on Chariot’s gas projects in Morocco?

Maurice-Williams: Our recent drilling results in Morocco didn’t meet initial expectations, but the overall economic potential of the project remains strong.

We are confident in its long-term value and will continue to refine our approach to ensure optimal outcomes.

Agree Surfit

I wonder if Chariot have explored Farm out options, and are now trying to debt fund Loukos to go it alone with Onhym (with some involvement from Vivo) - and are therefore still finalising options. Morocco clearly want this developed.

In the last 2 months (December) they may (Chariot) feel they have told the market that they are ‘progressing Loukos’ and that they are working through potential options with Anchois with ‘their partners, including the partner that is the operator (Enog)’ and they will update when finalised. I thought this language was curious at the time, and if you watch Julian closely on this specific commentary on the proactive video he is clearly sticking clearly to an exact script (that must have been agreed with Enog)…. Notice how his behaviour visibly changes when he moves onto describing Loukos and Namibia.

Chariot put an operational update out this week last year FYI, but may feel they will update only when they have concrete news. Not saying its a strategy I would run with or like - but it seems to be the strategy they are employing.

DYOR

The only other point I would add re: Energean is that they need some wins - as I’ve highlighted previously. That means new partnerships or acquisitions. If they are seen by the market to have not worked constructively with Chariot - that is not helpful reputationally for future partnerships - or you would think with Morocco . Something to consider in all of this.

BTW - I dont like this anymore than anyone else at the moment.

Hey Ian/All.

My views on various comments-

Chris Zeal chairs the remuneration committee (rem com), and Andrew Hockey is the chair of Chariot following the retirement of George Canjar announced in late 2024.

Gardie - I genuinely think they are in a closed period re Share Purchases - they can’t right now. Whether what they know is good or bad, they will have market sensitive knowledge.

Energean - By the nature of the fact they haven’t said anything formally, and have said that Morocco is still part of continuing operations you can only conclude that they are still in discussions. They told one of credible trade specific news outlets that they didn’t like Anchois but were warm to Morocco. Are they negotiating with the Mor Gov still on price? and are they interested in Risanna as an alternative? The thing they definitely HAVENT said is that they are out - and they are required to update the market when that decision is made.

On 4th December they broadly said - Power 2-3 months for funding news (Feb at some point). Progressing Loukos (we know they are trying to farm it out). Progressing New Venture Opportunity (not saying its a good idea, but they are). The company (at the same time), and therefore by default the Board, have endorsed an investment article that highlights the business as a speculative buy recommendation that says they aren’t in a distressed cash position(early Dec). Recently a member of their exec co has posted an article on linked in highlighting the power guarantee and the prospects in SA.

Cash is probably ok for another 2-3 months? TBD

For the time being

DYOR/IMHO

Let’s see Surfit. It’s a small sale in the grand scheme of the lowly market cap. There were only 30 odd transactions in total and that one was at the opening price and represent about 0.1% of the market cap.

You may well be right on Enog re Anchois. But they may fancy Risanna .. they have already said publicly they like Morocco. Perhaps they make way on Anchois which they have already acknowledged a developable for a small producer.

In the short term chariot need cash from any of : 1. Some form of power deal, 2 Loukos Farmout or debt funding or 3. Anchois deal

I don’t think anything has changed yet. They said power next, somewhere around now to the next 4 weeks.

Let’s see …

DYOR