Member Info for Surety

Hey Surfit. Info is from the interim statement (half 1). If you scroll down beneath the initial preface to Adonis’s comments it’s in there.

I’m assuming that’s what they’ve predicated the farm out on (I notice they reference exploration) although also appear to be describing OBA1 as low risk if you read the quote in the African farm out forum !?!

Surfit

Thanks for the detail, agree with your logic

Re Loukos JT / Surfit (taken from the interims). Note comment on interpretation of reprocessed seismic. -

We successfully drilled two wells in the onshore Loukos licence in May with a discovery at the OBA-1 well which reported an approximate 70m gross interval of primary interest, with elevated resistivities coincident with elevated mud gas readings and interpreted gas pays. The team have also been interpreting reprocessed seismic across the acreage and have identified a number of additional exploration targets not evident on previous data. The uplift in quality of this dataset has helped define new amplitude-supported target structures as well as potential commercial opportunities within and around the historic discoveries situated on block.

Surfit/OilTDR

You would think it should be that simple i.e. A2 + the renegotiated gas price (assuming of course they had a negotiated one as a starting point !?!)

Are they now proposing to adjust the A2 development? Surely otherwise, Chariots A2 was as simple as it could be ?????

?!?

Https://on.ft.com/4aihLna

Surely someone is looking at this inside UK government and thinking…. National security… national security.. national security..

Hard to imagine there not being some form of U turn!!

DYOR

Oiltdr - thanks for sharing. Any thoughts on decision making time frames? I am assuming Q1?

Am assuming the deliberating point is the gas price to secure the development ROI - or more complex than that?

UK plc looks very cheap at the moment .. with the weakness of the £

It may be helpful in terms of attracting if (clearly massive if) chariot can access funding through Loukos/Anchois and get power moving in terms of attracting investment or potential M&A

IMHO

I think we can all agree we’re pretty irritated by this. It’s the understatement of the century.

But I am inclined to agree with Kiss N Cuddles. Adonis loses a lot if they raise heavily now given even the recent investment he made pre A3 drill.

I also think they are going to either try and find this by other means or -

I maintain that I think the key to the door is Loukos - either that or they are giving Risanna to Enog or something like that in order to retrieve cash on FID for A2 and a free carry.

A raise at this level would be damaging for everyone, not least AP. I also think their second largest shareholder would have something to say about it.

IMHO

Risky business - Reading back through your recent posts on here, and before taking a swipe at Whimax, I think you might be in a glass house…

Fernan - I agree your commentary.

The biggest and most perplexing point at the moment is lack of comms and more importantly why. They have recently posted, and therefore endorsed an IC article via the ‘X’ company account that states they are not under immediate cash pressure and that the stock is a ‘speculative buy.’ As directors, even of an AIM listed stock, there are clear rules that they have the adhere to - so they have to broadly believe both there is no immediate cash issue and they have a mechanism to solving it. They also have to believe that they have sufficient prospects to boost the price.

They have also been quoted as saying, via JMW and Proactive that they are progressing Loukos and the Namibian venture and believe in the long term economic prospects for Anchois.

So the big question for all of us is what is going on at the moment that gives them that belief. It can only be Loukos or Anchois - assuming Power doesn’t provide a short term means to cash

Discuss..

DYOR

I think this is the nub of it, right? They absolutely have raised funds to test OBA1. They have gambled that A3 would come off and accelerate them towards FID and they would access the £15m.

They’ve then panicked when the A3 drill failed, and held back on the Loukos funds to by them more cash runway (G&A too high which we know).

Like you I don’t believe for one second they are certain on OBA1 - however following the remapping of Loukos they probably think they have a story to tell and are pitching Loukos farm out on a part exploration basis. They made a comment about having identified new targets in the interim commentary.

So I guess that’s why we are where we are and they aren’t flow testing - because they don’t have the free cash anymore, and they aren’t certain enough on OBA1. The question is can they convince someone that they need say $5-8m in back costs up front and give them say 35 percent with partner tipping in another £8-£10m in exploration and testing costs. It’s not a massive sum at all combined $13-18m say midpoint of $15m - but given the A3 results it definitely brings into question their analysis…

Re the RNS. I honestly don’t know .. they could argue they have told us they are looking at funding solutions for their pillars? The outcome needs an RNS.. but until they agree something they are just exploring it?

They need to comms the plan on cash. I have a horrible

Feeling they are trying to wait on Enog…

IMHO

Surfit - in response to your question on A2 - I actually think short term the Loukos farmout (with up front cash and near term production) is the most important one, unless they somehow get money from Enog (assuming they hang around) for A2 FID in the next few months.

If they can convince institutions that this will not get diluted further and costs have been cut - I can see the price rising on speculation. Anchois, Power and Namibia then help to further build the price if they come off - but from a stable cash generative base that at a minimum covers central opex / G&A

I think until we have that, this is going nowhere!

DYOR

Anyone seen MT? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Oiltdr - Do you have any further view on Enog? I know you expressed a view that they were definitely out pre Christmas? Was that purely speculation based on Rigas’s comments - or did you have other insight

Would be interested in your perspective, and whether it’s changed?

Total Energies also feel like another potential partner. They are active in Block 2913 B (see below)

https://totalenergies.com/namibia

They also need to get on and secure the Loukos farm out with back costs as a cash consideration (not that we have been officially informed that they are doing that!) to avoid another dilution

Don’t disagree with any of that Fernan - although I’m not sure Enog are out yet. Rigas seems to be saying to anyone who has a pen that he’s leaving - but he hasn’t said that to the market formally yet ..

Char need to force an outcome though - procrastination is totally unhelpful

From November; Nothing we dont already know - but attention to the Rigas comment about a smaller company, clearly seeing the development as economic. Note the ‘?’ In the preparing to leave comment as well

https://fr.le360.ma/economie/gaz-naturel-energean-en-passe-de-quitter-le-maroc-apres-des-resultats-de-forage-en-deca-de-ses_ZD4NXCAZ7JATJAX2Y2MJS75PQE/

Translation

Energean preparing to leave Morocco? This is what the CEO of the Greco-British energy company, Mathios Rigas, implicitly suggested during an interview with the specialized media outlet Asharq Business on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC), held from November 4 to 7 in the United Arab Emirates.

The reason for this potential departure is the disappointing drilling results obtained by the company during operations conducted in its offshore Anchois field, located in the Lixus Offshore license area off Larache, which had an estimated certified potential of 18 billion cubic meters of natural gas. “We drilled an offshore well in Morocco, but we did not find what we were hoping for. From our perspective, there has been no significant progress in this field, and the results did not meet our expectations,” he stated.

Gas found, but in insufficient quantities

According to him, the drilled area does contain gas, but the quantities might be better suited to a smaller-sized company than his own. “It would be preferable to involve a smaller-scale company to continue this project,” he advised, announcing that his company will now focus on its fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Greece.

DYOR

@Deal Breaker - Enogs results are end of March, I suspect the Anchois update (and decision to stay or go) will be timed for then

IMHO

Agreed. I used chat GPT to run the translation - marginal differences but the same base premise

On cash - feels like we either get something from the Loukos deal (assuming they successfully farm out) or some form of compensation from Energean (withdrawal or right sizing of development) - as potential short term funding.

Either that or Power gives some form of kick to the share price from the next phases and they then raise! I bloody hope not!

IMHO

I found this as well from the 14.12 - note 'preparing' - I suspect gamed afoot still

https://www.bladi.net/geants-golfe-assaut-vents-desert-marocain,112038.html#google_vignette

"Not all of Morocco's energy ventures are successful. The Greek company Energean is preparing to leave the country after disappointing results in the offshore Anchois field. The drilling was not profitable, and the expected gas reserves were not found. Energean had bet on 1.39 trillion cubic feet of gas, but preliminary data dashed its hopes."