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I suspect cash. How much are they getting for power.. what are they doing with it .. should they be spending it on Anchois or Loukos (now being farmed out?). If they have enough they can do a better deal on Anchois with a new partner assuming Enog out which they may have only realised a few weeks ago. I imagine they want to tell the story together rather than individual workflows, especially if they don’t have an immediate answer on Anchois. IMHO

@Star banker - We likely know the answer to this. They need to be able to update on Anchois, to describe the overall plan. Enog staying vs. Enog going carry 2x quite different scenarios - especially given it remains the most influential part of the share price in the short term (the broker notes all highlight this clearly).

I am looking for news on Thursday in line with the Enog trading statement.. though I think they may simply point to a December/January webinar.. depending I suspect on whether Enog are ready to formally break cover on Anchois.

More to follow no doubt…

DYOR

I think the game is still in play, albeit with a first half deficit as Fernan and others have outlined.

Very little volume today. Let’s see what Thursday or earlier brings…

IMHO

Harry - Simple questions: 1. just explain to us if that was true on Anchois (and the team had doubts) why didn’t the management team sell when they received an approach for the whole company in December 23, as they acknowledged on the Farm Out update call? And 2. Why did Energean, a FTSE250 Gas Expert take the plunge?

DYOR

Fernan - Any sense of how Sound Energys setup compares?

What do you think is the most likely outcome development wise Oiltdr? Any view on splits of share required to attract a smaller partner and a view on a lower level of capex for somewhere between say 354 - 475 BCF initially?

You commented on here 13 days ago.. so perhaps more recently that you remember!

Thanks Ianfer 😂

I meant keep higher % than ENOG took overall the first time, but within that give a little more than they might have done for the new partner.. for cash £ upfront..

I think that makes sense.. I agree.. not my clearest statement!!

BDC - I know this has been a hell of a ride.. dont give up just yet

This may yet come good

DYOR

If Char think Anchois can be developed (it sounds like ENOG are acknowledging that it can be - just suited to a smaller player), and they can find a partner to fund a good chunk of it - they already have a funding line set up through the banking consortium work that SocGen pulled together to fund their share . Yep, the cap-ex and ROI nos change - but they should retain a higher %. Assuming the resources are (354-500 BCF this is very interesting in my view). There will be a way of extracting cash up front from a new partner.. even if they have to give a higher %. The Anchois G&A is then covered by the project finance.

Anchois is also material to their share price (you can see it clearly in the broker notes).. they would be nuts not to have a go at this. Add to that the new chair also is a Gas expert in terms of historic expertise.

All IMHO

Battletech

Analysts Forecasts today -

Auctus : 8p but with only a 15% chance of Anchois happening on only 354 BCF). Unrisked 45p +

Stifel : 6p, havent seen the detail - but will assume not chance of Anchois

Cavendish : 58p under review pending outcome of Anchois

Peel Hunt : 30p (unrevised)

Pan Liberum 32p (unrevised)

The lower numbers, where revised, typically have a near zero assumption for Anchois progressing (max 15%). Most have a small amount for Loukos, a small amount for power, nothing for Namibia, and a low probability factor diluting Anchois.

Point being - BIG IF Chariot can resurrect Anchois with another partner, enact what looks like a sensible plan with Loukos to get cash flowing next year funded by someone else, and farmout a power minority this will move northwards quickly.

Particularly if they can showcase a credible path with no dilution (Income from the power famout followed by Loukos generating cash and someone else picking up the tab for Anchois - which would offset the bulk of their G&A). Nothing assumed in any scenario for Namibia inc their existing back in rights.

DYOR

That is an outstanding piece of research HarryCarter..

Looks like it took place on the 4th November. The Enog press article was 7th November

I am assuming we will have news on the 28th in line with the Enog results, if not before - or at least the annoucement of some form of Webinar

Keep topics are:

i) Whats the plan with Anchois (Enog out? and if so what now - how are they going to develop if they are)

ii) They should know if they have the Namibian licences by then - even if just a nod

iii) Interest in the Loukos farmout - and timeframes. When are they planning to test, and drill new prospects

iv) Update on Power which should be either completed or nearing completion

v) Update on Hydrogen funding approach / Next steps

Either way there is a lot to update on pre Christmas..

IMHO

Agree both, this feels much more sensible as an approach. They made a comment at the interims about having fully mapped Loukos so imagine they have a story to tell

I think the other point this may lend weight to, is that it seems unlikely they would stay in Morocco for just Loukos - and therefore they are intending to stay involved with Anchois.

IMHO/DYOR

I read it 100% that they are treating it like a farmout. They bring in someone to fund the whole drilling and development programme which they have now fully mapped for a cut of the overall and they retain operatorship and a material stake with a free carry. Seems a v sensible way forward - they obviously think there is value there but dont want to spend any more of their cash on it ..

A good move IMHO

Looks like they are trying to farm it out...

https://menafn.com/1108900136/Major-Oil-Gas-Farm-In-Prospects-Unveiled-At-African-Farmout-Forum

It's possible that Chariot are doing the same (playing games) if ENOG are leaving as they will need a decent price for the development

Is there any possibility that Chariot could be considering going this alone with Soc Gen funding?

I wonder if the redaction of the chairmans share dealing (buy and sell) relates to the timing of Enog confirming it's position - the dates of the article relate to the RNS timing give or take 2 days.

I suspect more will become apparent on the 28th as I suspect there is something in the agreement that Enog as operator and larger FTSE 250 operator has the right to make the first market announcement

IMHO

I suspect they may be able to borrow at a sub level against the Soc Gen funding. The farmout of power may also include a central contribution. The pre work on the farmout has likely been done previously by the involved party so there is potentially a big shortcut.

IMHO

I dont disagree with you Fernan... but Energean (a FTSE 250 gas expert) having long scrutinised the data and believed it enough to start a major drilling campaign. I'm sure they would argue on Loukos they hit one ??? yet to be seen - and missed one.

Also worth noting that DW is a main Board member..

Our new chair is a Gas expert.... it definitely all points toward Chariot staying in Morocco... and the Moroccans need them too as you've pointed out.

DYOR

@Fernan

Agree that this may well still go ahead with a smaller partner.

Appreciate your thoughts on :

It's possible that Chariot may have options from the previous Farmout that are still open? Who knows.. but a lot of parties were in the data room at one point so they wont be short on contact options - albeit from a weakened negotiation position.

From a funding perspective, if they agree to proceed with a bank consortium funding Chars share - whatever that is (from the soc gen work) I would think they could cover the Anchois/Loukos G&A + Capex/Opex. If the Power successfully farms out then central G&A cost exposure reduces significantly - other than Board salaries? Two big 'ifs' there but possible you would think

IMHO