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If he didn’t participate in the fund raise this would have dropped to about 6.4 through natural dilution. I thought it was quite interesting that the Board used words to the effect of .. thanking some of their institutional investors for participating in the raise

DYOR

That sounds high Mikey - but could definitely see $50m ish. Add Namibian licences to that, power funding and a remapped drill ready Loukos and suddenly it’s a lot more interesting

Trying to make sense of AAs last holding .. He had about 7.5% on the last TR1. I assuming he didn’t participate in the most recent raise … ? Would be interested in others thoughts on this

DYOR

DU - I assume this isnt what you meant by 'I'll write something a bit less gloomy in the next day or so'

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Good find, Padfoot. No question that Morocco will want this, and on that basis you would think there will be a path that works for the gas price (and Energean's need to diversify)

IMHO

Assuming Char put the application in for Namibia in the July/August round of licensing (they highlighted it in their July update/fundraising), the decision from the Namibian Gov should be due back end October/early November looking at previous outcomes..

IMHO

Thanks for making the time to comment Jim, it’s appreciated and always interesting to get your view … Good to know you haven’t made any change. SBT is definitely the order of the day… logic says the economics ultimately have to prevail…. Hopefully the path to realising that will be obvious!

All the best .

Hi Jim. Would be grateful for your thoughts as always, as conscious you are a major holder here and have an interesting perspective on the balance of politic / reality.

DYOR

Sounds logical Jimmy, I guess the key question is whether Enog buy out Char, or they stay in….

Power and Namibia updates in the meanwhile..

Thanks JT

-Jimmy - any comments or thoughts on timings technically are very welcome.

Hopefully there is news flow in the next 2-4 weeks on Power/Renewables funding and Namibia licensing.

JT - how long do you think to make the analyse, make the assessment, and determine the course of action on Anchois? I also dont think ENOG will walk away, they are in need of a good news story and diversification - and probably sooner rather than later. They have a trading update scheduled in mid November, does this seem a realistic timescale?

IMHO

Any thoughts on news flow timings?

Looking at JM's timeline that he shared during the last presentation a lot seemed to be happening around October/early November including :

Power Funding

Hydrogen Update

Namibian Licensing Update

Loukos (postponed whilst they conclude Anchois next steps)

Separately, does anyone have a view on how long to complete Anchois analysis/assessment?

@Jimmy - How long do you think to complete the analysis?

On a related note, I assume Char could technically fund this by going it alone with Onhym. If they had to fund 100%, with 75% share (asssuming Enog handed back their 45%) of a smaller development - say 450-550BCM range of A1+ A2 then the cost would be more like ~$500m capex/opex for a low cost development? From memory they had already secured funding for 30% of the larger development of c. $300m.. for 30% return in their 'what if Enog dont take the extra 10%.'

I'm not suggesting for one minute this is a good idea (or that they would), it's just purely the logic of them access funding from a consortium of banks to develop a smaller Anchois.

And … a higher gas price looks very possible given the climate and the need for energy security (see economist!)

Is the world sleepwalking into another gas crisis?

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/09/26/is-the-world-sleepwalking-into-another-gas-crisis

from The Economist

Enog, I suspect may well find a way/choose to develop this given the escalating conflict in their primary production source..

IMHO

I cant help but think the clue to their approach to Anchois is captured in this statement.. In other words, we're out of Anchois.. whilst reminding investors that it's still valuable and therefore of worth to Enog

The unexpected Anchois-3 well results have clearly had a significant impact on our share price therefore we have decided to take stock and consider our next steps with the project. We will provide further updates on forward plans across the business as soon as we are able to."

I would think that Energean are going to have to update the market in November. They seem to like to issue news in 'bundles' when not glowingly positive, so I would think a few paragraphs highlighting the fact that they have struck a new farm in deal or have bought Char out could be buried in their November trading statement whereby they start with a smaller dev on Anchois 2 (and1?) and continue to explore the broader Lixus/Rissana licence. I wonder if Char will stay in Rissana...

On this I would imagine they will do a deal on gas with the Mor gov, and buy out Char giving Char some cash now (£15m?), and maybe some later that would cover Char's back costs when A2 starts producing..

Char then gets to focus on Power, Other Renewables, Hydrogen, and Namibia which may bring 'Total' into play for a 3rd time? They are active in Namibia already and may well value the history and seismic that Char hold..

DYOR, my view FWIW.

Less than 3 months away? ....

There are some updates due this side of Christmas, Surfit - some of which are material:

Energean need to conclude their position.. they are either in, out - or ... continuing to explore. There is an operational update due from Enog In November (I think) and I suspect their investors will expect a narrative for then.

The Namibian Licence application will conclude

The power funding will conclude

Against this, Char need to detail their strategy for the business which depending on their choices will likely mean

Cash for the sale of Anchois or Cash for the sale of Power/Renewables or some form of funding mechanism (which isnt a raise)

A workplan / read through for Anchois or Renewables (whichever they didnt sell)

A workplan for Loukos (flow test and more drilling), if they havent sold it

Partnering for Namibia (if succesful)

Some form of update on Hydrogen

Either way there is a clear newsflow due in the coming months, and before the CY is out

IMHO