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Happy - other than A3 failing horribly .. respectfully why do you think there is no value at all? The NPV on the 1C alone is likely £700m

The 1C reserves at the Anchois gas field were confirmed by Netherland Sewell & Associates Inc. (NSAI), an independent evaluation firm.

Have you considered:

i) Energean need to diversify, have sold other assets and stated publicly they understand Morocco

“These assets are particularly attractive as we understand the core geological, commercial and political drivers of the region, we have a track record in developing material gas resources prioritised for the domestic market and they are a complementary fit with our broader portfolio, not least the potential for surplus supply to other markets. We look forward to working with our partners Chariot and ONHYM, and developing an outstanding resource for the benefit of all parties, including Morocco and its people."

ii) Post Footwall drill failiure, their CEO has said publicly said on a results call with analysts there is definitely gas there and the development could go ahead (its about a deal on price with the Moroccans)

iii) There is a massive area across Risanna and Lixus combined that this drill and remapping would help them learn from to access future resources

Even if ENOG walk away, someone else may develop the 1C

Why are you so certain there is no value at all?

IMHO

Agree on the rise and them moving quickly

Fernans outline is most likely IMHO. Namibia licence and Power funding … try and get Loukos going and see if they can partner with Enog or another partner for the 1c at Anchois

If the Moroccans ‘encourage’ the banks they may be able to access some debt finance ahead of FID to cover any cash shortfall if a plan is coming together ..

AIMHO

5 or 6 pence?

GG - Agree on value of Anchois - assuming thats what you meant. NPV of $690m for the 1C. 30% to Char at $200m - Distressed sale of 10-25% of this value is about $20-$50m. What do you think power/hydro/nam back in/ is worth if they take their time with these having monetised Anchois?

I agree with Fernan though - if the relationship with ENOG is still intact.. Char will stay in if ENOG play. They could debt finance it theoretically, especially if the Moroccans lean on one of the African banks..

Alternatively if Enog walk - I also think this is an interesting scenario. The 1C is still attractive with a scaled back development.. and the Morocans will want Char to Farm it out, so I suspect will again be supportive.. Either than or in that scenario Char sell the power asset or sell more of it for cash..

Number of interesting scenarios here..

DYOR

What do you think re: value, The Bold? T/O and if so at what price?

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1043383/chariot-transitional-power-business-potentially-worth-10p-a-share-american-investment-bank-1043383.html

This was from earlier in the year (House Broker Stifel).. Auctus have a 8p unrisked value on it (reiterated on Monday this week)

There is potentially a lot of value in the power pipeline... if they can establish funding (Which sounds positive) and then consistent cashflow (Loukos) - not to mention Green Hydrogen and some form of potential in Namibia..

DYOR

🤣 let’s see … Total may well be interested in the power project in SA

Indeed!

I’m not discounting Total in all of this … they have a key partnership in multiple power/hydrogen areas

I think it’s worth more than 4-5 though .. for me 6-8

Similar position Surfit on investment level , broadly.

Sadly I agree on Loukos… it doesn’t make sense otherwise …

They will have some contacts through the power strategic review … I seem to remember a major was in the mix. Cash wise I would guess the runway is December / January so there is some time if they have interest … albeit not lots

Total could buy the lot for 8-10p? They well be the group offering to partner on power given the solar / hydrogen partnership..

AP could always bridge it too.. of course :-)

Let’s see

‘Lixus’

I suspect they are conserving cash Surfit until they know where Enog are .. hence the Loukos delay.

Personally I think if Enog are playing ball, but slowly, then sell the power division and stay in Lucy’s/Risanna. However I would guess they will try and bank 20m-30m from Anchois exit, and focus on power, hydrogen and Namibia .. if you’re existing Anchois it’s hard to imagine them staying in Loukos? Although if they continue their hydrogen project there they may

Let’s see

GG - agree. They have some options; but need to move quickly

If they can prove up Loukos, I am sure they can borrow against it - but it’s a massive ‘if’ and it’s more cost

Agree with Fernan on the power piece re capital or selling part of it …

I would think monetising the stake in Anchois is the obvious call if the time frame works. The NPV at 10-20 percent for cash to a buyer is interesting ..

IMHO

Not lost mon me, GG

If Enog take the 10% and are decisive it's fine... I dont think the Morrocans will want to draw this out (accepting nothing happens quickly). If Enog stay Risanna is in the mix too..

They have the option to monetise more of the power arm if it's attractive..

What do you think it's worth

Although enacting the 10% option is potentially less obvious....

If I take your numbers, phase them a bit over 5 years (less up front, middle weighted), assume they only extract ~66% over the 10 years and reduce the capex by 250 I get an NPV10 of about £957m, assuming they take the 10% then £191m to Char.

Definitely makes it interesting...

IMHO

....even more interesting with a 1/3 less capex and a slightly higher gas price ($11-12?), if the Mor gov play ball...

Good work, Fernan. This is super helpful....

How do you think about their revised approach with Char in this context, assuming they hang around?

When you add this to what broader Risanna could bring following the area being remapped, it's reasonably compelling for ENOG.

DYOR

Anyone remember when these are due to conclude?