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Total may fancy a punt at this as well Ianfer.. at a low price most likely more than one bidder …

The article definitely is about Anchois

But the quote for Dartois was ' confirms the presence of reservoirs over an interval of approximately 200m gross thickness'

It looks awfully similar!

I want to be wrong btw!

Is that not what they said about Dartois?

Thoughts on this appreciated, Jimmy

Https://www.offshore-mag.com/vessels/news/55139657/energean-energean-books-vessel-for-karish-module-lift-offshore-israel

Other info

Reflecting, I think the obviou explanation is that Energean caught Chariot on the hop... they had a load of good news that they were sharing at their interims.. the pilot hole in A3 was water wet, and they decided to talk down Anchois and get the news out knowing they had enough positivity in their statement to bury it - rather than take the risk on bad news that comes out later and then drops their SP. It also sends a signal to the Morrocan government that they have to play on price. I suspect Chariot didnt have much time, had to say something, but they aren't the operator and given it was under wraps from ENOG as a FTSE250 player were probably late to see the statement, with Enog then restrciting them to positive but vague commentary around the B sands..

Seems a logical explanation to me..

DYOR

Fundamentals saying +30% more buys today.. something is definitely keeping this down!

Jimmy - Have you got any thoughts on the flow rate? Is there anything Char have so far that would support this one way or the other?

DYOR

The other key point is all the future material upside they have across broader Lixus and Rissana. If there is gas there, which they have confirmed, it is hard to see them walking away..

@Ianfer - I think this is precisely the point!

Lets recap on the value here so we dont all lose sight of it...

Anchois

2C Resources 24p (Auctus - risked)

South Flank 12p (Unrisked)

North Flank 7p (unrisked)

Renewables (Unrisked inc pipeline)

(Stifel) 10p

(Auctus) 15p

Hydrogen (Risked and Unrisked)

(Auctus) 5p

Loukos (Risked)

3p (Dartois only)

Namibia

?? New licence : Potentially a fair bit

10% back in right - Value?

Cavendish numbers were typically higher than Auctus for each segment.. There is material asset value here...

The problem is short term cash - which we all know. If Enog stall we are £10-15m light in the short term

Assuming ENOG dont take the 10%, then Chariot need to fund the 30%. The question is whether the consortium of lenders would fund a lower development cost with a lower NPV.. you would think so. I'm not sure where this leaves Chariot if not.. One assumes they have to sell the licence.. This for me is the big question ?!?

If Loukos comes in it solves the medium term.

DYOR

Great post MYoung.

One assumes that not only did they not have the full analysis, they also didnt have the flank results either which may be good, bad or average. There is obviously prepositioning going on ahead of negotiations with gov. It is unlikely that Anchois is worthless, and therefore even in the event ENOG bail (I dont see it based on his words) someone else might come in.

Power, Hydrogen, Loukos (if it flows) and Namibia (if it comes off - I would guess it will, as long as Char present as financially stable) are probably worth between 10-15p a share combined. Maybe add 5p per share for a 'maybe' whilst ENOG negotiate on Anchois 'reduced' - which no doubt they will then maximise using broader Lixus and Rissana once they have a fixed attractive gas price...

The problem in the short term is cash. If ENOG stall FID, I assume Chariot need £10-15m.

The question is where they get it

DYOR

Thats exactly right KissnCuddles

I think they are quoting him from the analyst call yesterday morning on the ENOG mid year update

Https://africaoilgasreport.com/2024/09/oilpatch-sahara/energean-hits-a-duster-in-morocco/

They are clearly talking about Morrocan gov negotiation and gas prices... it's an interesting play given they only have the pilot hole data..

@Legalwolf I was referring to your uncertainty post, not the most recent one!

I think that's the right observation, Legalwolf, and a big part of the current problem... It definitely feels that Char and Morroco's view is somewhat different to ENOGS and that the agendas may be diverging . Based on their translated commentary ENOG appear to be angling on local gas price, which ultimately benefits char if they develop.

I had a good re-read of the broker notes again first thing this morning, with fresh eyes, alongside the IC update - which rapidly followed the price drop (it was out much faster than normal - which in itself was interesting) and the MGW piece.

Cavendish (house broker) are positive. Auctus who are the not a house broker (and theoretically are more objective) remain very positive, and Simon Thompson (who has a reputation to uphold) has come out very quickly saying dont sell until you have the drill results. Malcy has then added in the comments that he thinks ENOG have gone early without data points either way, beyond the pilot hole.

Confusion reigns, but two highly respected entities (Auctus and ST) are holding firm with clarity. In my view there is more to play out yet and maybe a great deal more beneath the surface (and not just of Anchois!)

DYOR

Jimmy - Any further thoughts on the flow ? Assume, based on your best estimate you think even the Anchois 2 volumes should flow well enough to make for a profitable development?

Couple of interesting comments on his website from yesterday's piece. Firstly he think's Energean have gone early without evidence either way on their update. Secondly he is referencing imminent Namibia drilling (next few months). I assume that relates to our back in rights at 10% (not sure where the operator is with this) and not anything bigger..

You are correct, If ENOG walk then the licence returns to Chariot! I love your approach 'thebold' .... my only concern would be that we would be trusting the chariot management team to fund, establish, setup and operate the development. Given they state their 'expertise' lies in exploration this may be a step too far for a banking consortium!

Couple of other bits from me.

Firstly, Jimmy I appreciate your view. It's helpful to have a perspective from someone more technical on the forum. Thank you in advance.

Secondly, and to the good, at this stage it seems unlikely this is a total disaster. I cant access the call transcript from the ENOG analyst call - and am therefore relying on the paraphrasing of Malcy - but if ENOG are saying that the development may be smaller in volume than hoped but that the gas price might determine whether it runs - then it is also possible that they are trying to leverage the Morrocans into a better price. It seems odd that they would say that if it was likely to have a material flow issue

Food for thought as a counter..

DYOR

Jimmy - Understood on the North Flank. The COS looks a little lower than the footwall, but still around the 50/50 level.

The bit that had concerned me yesterday was the Enog statement about volumes being lower than pre drill expectations. It seemed an odd thing to say about the pilot hole being water bearing (why not just say the first target was water bearing), and therefore I assumed it was a reference to the B sands/sidetrack which in turn might have a bearing on the previously discovered volumes.

Malcys sounded off for him (which I take with a pinch of salt) and the mood in the room Tuesday had seemed sombre - although I suspect that this was knowing the announcement that was about to land on the Footwall.

Do you think they would have a view on flow rates already, or too early?

Based on your note last night you sounded bullish on flow? Has anything changed that today