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The question is where is the T/o cost...

8-10?

Respectful disagreement always welcome, Surfit!

I suspect we do agree on the worry around Loukos...

Agree on the Bold point too, Surfit.

On Namibia... the attention in the basin is very different now! As is the success.. they have a lot of history from that time... I think it may be view differently due to how 'hot' the area is with the market.. just IMHO.. The Back In rights must also be worth something..

? Meant Loukos ?

I think if they can sell off Anchois for something.. unlock Namibia (with the recent drum banging they clearly think they have a good chance), Fund power (same comment as Namibia), accelerate Green Hydro (now approved by Mauritania) - all in the next few months, then things start to look up

? on Anchois?

These guys had crossed my mind as well, Fernan. Char just need the licence back for this approach....

Im not sure ENOG are out of the game yet though.... On the one hand I think the commentary has been downbeat and therefore they will go (although they have been very careful not to say that) but on the otherhand they will likely have learnt a lot and explorating broader Rissana is a lot to give up for the cost of putting a low end development in on the existing 1C whilst you re-map to find the 'big gas' to quote someone earlier.. They have been very careful to say that there is gas...

Still a lot at play in my view

DYOR

0-10p Anchois

0-5p Loukos

5-10p Power

5p Hydrogen

?? Nambia (back in + any new licence success)

There is a lot of value here...

DYOR

Surfit

I think they are waiting on what happens with Anchois. If they are selling up and walking away, would you keep Loukos? I suspect they are also conserving cash until they know where ENOG are

DYOR

Glad you're staying put Padfoot!

Thanks Jimmy

@Jimmy - sense check from me. Would they proceed to a scaled back development without a flow test on A2 in your opinion, based on what they have found in A3 from a B sands perspective? The CEO of ENOG clearly stated there is gas there.. just less than they expected (or words to that effect!

I winder if AP is trying to get ENOG to buy him out - it would make the development a lot more attractive for them (in fact it may end up being a condition of it), especially inc prospectively of Rissana.

If we assume that a scaled back development has an NPV of say $500-600m based on just the 1C, it's worth $150-180m to chariot + all the prospectively upside for which they have a bigger share. That has to be worth $50+m (a lot against the current market cap).

Either than or ENOG bail out - and Chariot get to go again..

Either way there has to be a lot of upside on this price..

DYOR

If you assume 6-8p could take this out its a market cap of 50-70m. I'm not suggesting that will happen, but to paint a picture on value..

Its peanuts given what you would get access to from someone like Total who are already involved with Power (and see the value in the pipeline) and Hydrogen, not to mention very active in Namibia

DYOR

If it goes well:

They will have part of Anchois to sell (albeit for not a lot)

A read through on power - potentially worth quite a lot

Loukos producing something, assuming they dont sell it with Anchois

Green Hydrogen - Future value

Namibian Licences (if succesful) + existing 10% back-in right

and they have some cash

A 5-10p takeover isnt inconceivable

DYOR

Couerdelion - Nothing assigned for Namibia in that either, if they are successful there. They have a 10% back-in right already. Stifel had valued the power pipeline alone at 10p earlier in the year..

Lets see..

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/stocks-and-shares/2024/09/16/chariot-shares-hit-on-drilling-disappoinment/

Auctus updated on the 11th with reiteration on 13th!

Https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/major-milestone-mauritania-s-parliament-approves-law-offering-tax-breaks-to-green-hydrogen-developers/2-1-1707743?message=%5Bnuxt%5D+instance+unavailable&stack&statusCode=404&statusMessage=%5Bnuxt%5D+instance+unavailable&url=/policy/major-milestone-mauritania-s-parliament-approves-law-offering-tax-breaks-to-green-hydrogen-developers/2-1-1707743

I’d really value, as a group, some conversation on why we think the price is where it is …

The drop was material this week but the price was already way too low. Chariot had captured in their presentation just a few weeks before that this was arguably the most exciting time in their history

It doesn’t make sense ..

For that level of collapse to occur on a relatively insignificant part of the development ..

No question the energean comments weren’t helpful.. but the analysts call took place after the main collapse. The note in the RNS was unhelpful from Enog.. but shouldn’t have sent it down this much

So what collapsed it from an already low starting point

The obvious explanation in my view seems unlikely to be PIs getting spooked. It seems more likely to me that a large holder gave a very strong sell signal to the market … and if this was the case, what is the agenda?

The current price will certainly make it harder to raise if there is a material delay to FID.

Thoughts welcome ..

I am invested here and have been for some time .. and remain pro Char for the avoidance of doubt… I’m just trying to understand the current paradox. It doesn’t make a great deal of sense ..

DYOR

If the Moroccans are playing hardball on price or not committing it would make sense for ENOG to downplay it to try and force their hand.. It may be, as LW suggests, that ENOG are attempting to do both (gas price guarantee up based on take or pay agreement and surpress Char share price) for a low ball bid..

Lets see

DYOR

Exactly what I was thinking re Char! I keep wondering if there is something in the farm out agreement where Energean can cash call them heavily! There is something very odd going on here …