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Https://www.policycenter.ma/publications/bassin-atlantique-une-zone-tres-importante-pour-lindustrie-des-hydrocarbures

The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) is a Moroccan think tank dedicated to enhancing economic and social public policies in Morocco and across Africa, positioning them as integral components of the global South.

Of relevance, report published on 20.12 (today)

Anchois Development in Morocco

The offshore Anchois gas field, located within the Lixus block in Morocco, is expected to be brought into production in the coming years. The consortium responsible for this development includes Energean, Chariot, and Morocco's Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines (ONHYM). However, a final investment decision (FID) on the development of this field has not yet been made.

MT

You do make me laugh. The ask is at 50..

You said pre budget in October this was going to 5p.... to reiterate 5p. and here we are approx - 90% away from that prediction?!?

DYOR - as always

🤣

The other consideration is whether a susccesful farmout of Loukos with some back costs (wouldnt be much - but maybe a $5-8m??) might give this a kick?

The Chariot social media machine has recently endorsed a Simon Thompson article. I am saying that because in the article he explicitly states that they dont have a current funding need (recent raise, not in a distressed position). It would be reckless (bordering on negligent) for the directors of the business to allow their team to post this if it wasnt true - and they didnt believe there were near term catalysts..

Anchois sounds like a smaller development is possible. The question of timing and with whom in the unknown - but agree on this being the main instrument to move the share price. Enog seem to be taking their time to formally announce it though - which implies conversation is still ongoing. OilTDR have you heard any more?

IMHO

MT

You said this was going to 5p about 1.5 months ago pre budget. I said I thought it was unlikely to stay below 50 for many consecutive days

One of us will be more right than the other

So far.. the data points are in my favour. We're a lot closer to 50p than we are 5

Good luck with whatever it is you're after here....

DYOR (always!!)

When did it last close below 50p MT for any consecutive period? 2020?

DYOR

Jim

Hope you dont mind, but always interested to get your continuing thoughts as a large investor here. I am assuming your view is more patience - and step through the next 3-6 months of 2025 to conclude the various reviews and then hopefully a path to FID

Any thoughts on whether they will attempt to acquire something else in the interim. Given the capability and experience of the ex Ithaca crew in particular including the chair, it seems odd/unlikely for them to sit on the sidelines at reduced salaries indefinitely..

Thanks for any thoughts in advance...

Nothing withstanding the point around cost and the need to seriously reduce it

Are there any examples of a farmout like Loukos (as in size of), where an upfront cash consideration has been given by the farminee? I wonder if Chariot will try and fund their short term cash issue this way until they can get Loukos producing by giving up a higher proportion?

And before someone says it - yes i) I agree they need to seriously cut the current overhead costs NOW and ii) they shouldnt need to farm out Loukos

My question is simply whether they will try and take this approach to avoid a raise - and if so are there any examples of it

And does that imply Enog hanging around for broader Lixus and Risanna ?

Please share what you know

OilTDR

Have you got any further sense for how the Chariot and Anchois play will work in practice and timescales - or are you just speculating. Presumably they will need to find another partner if that’s definitely the case ? Assume they will announce soon etc

JT

Havent had a chance to look? Is that above the last RNS?

Agree on the salary front, Fernan

FYI for anyone who didnt see when I posted before - they are clearly attempting to farmout Loukos

https://aecweek.com/major-oil-gas-farm-in-prospects-unveiled-at-african-farmout-forum/

Good post Surfit / Oiltdr

No question about it, they have to cut the G&A cost hard starting with the Board.

I am curious as to the deal they are looking for on Loukos. They make the following comment at the interims:

The team have also been interpreting reprocessed seismic across the acreage and have identified a number of additional exploration targets not evident on previous data. The uplift in quality of this dataset has helped define new amplitude-supported target structures as well as potential commercial opportunities within and around the historic discoveries situated on block.

So I am assuming they are looking for someone to fully fund a multi well drilling and testing campaign based on the latest assessment referred to above. Given this cost isnt likely to be sky high, and IF someone buys into the opportunity, I am guessing Char would look to give up c. 25% and remain as Operator? Any thoughts on how long a smaller scale farmout of this nature might take to conclude? The audience they were pitching at looked more local (African Farmout Forum)

On Anchois - It's slightly bizarre :

JMW is reported as saying 'Maurice-Williams: Our recent drilling results in Morocco didn’t meet initial expectations, but the overall economic potential of the project remains strong.

We are confident in its long-term value and will continue to refine our approach to ensure optimal outcomes.'

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1062281

He also says in the live video interview:

'We're now working through with our partners, including our partner that is the operator, potential plans for that development'

He gives that interview on the 4th December and the language seems very specific

However on the 29th November, less than a week earlier Rigas (CEO of Energean - the operator) is quoted by upstream online in an interview following their trading update that Anchois will NOT be developed by them - although infers that they like Morocco due to the benign operating environment..

Doesnt make a lot of sense. If they were going to drill Anchois West, surely ENOG wouldnt say (which such certainty) that 'Anchois would not be developed by them'

Are ENOG gaming this (to leverage a better gas price), or as OILTDR puts it are they walking a way? I guess JMW could be referring what the operator are doing with their licence and that's what they are working through? Either than or they are forgetting Anchois - and looking at something else in the wider Lixus or Risanna licences that the study of the A3 drill has helped them determine which would back up their narrative on liking Morocco?

The bit that might support a different focus within the licences is that JMW doesnt refer to Anchois, he makes a broader reference to 'Morocco'

Maurice-Williams: Our recent drilling results in Morocco didn’t meet initial expectations, but the overall economic potential of the project remains strong.

True Ianfer , but that's only a possible scenario. A guarantor would need to look at all scenarios.. and one of them might not be that straight forward. Happy to agree to disagree with the many on this...

Anyway that really wasnt my point - and regret writing it ;-)

I was much more interested in a conversation on the A3 drill not meeting 'initial' expectations... implying others may have been met since ? Then there is the strong economic piece... very different to the ENOG CEOs quote in the press.

Would be keen to get others views on what happen here, as development news is the most likely short term influence on the share price..

DYOR

Fernan. Ouch.....

But that isnt how it works:

Char part own Etana, as you know. If Char goes bust, the administrator are entitled to recover what they can from the assets of Etana (Char's share of them). Therefore a company granting a guarantee to Etana would need to consider the solvency of the parent companies. In other words, Chariot’s solvency is relevant if its financial health could impact Etana’s operational continuity

Much more interested in a discussion on Anchois/Rissana and Lixus, as it feels like we've rinsed Power for now

IMHO

Fernan. I do agree on his holding btw - it’s less than I hold as well, FWIW

In terms of the price I think Surfits comments are probably right about the guarantee they have and the solvency point in the short term.

Forgetting power for the minute and wanting to have a conversation about gas I think the below comment is worth us discussing, which found its way into the market either yesterday or Thursday . It’s specifically the language around ‘initial expectations’. How do others read this. Does it imply it’s given them a better read in something else in Lixus/Risanna. Just thinking about Rigas’s comments as a no to Anchois but interested in Morocco.

Thoughts Jimmy? Others?

Proactive: Could you provide an update on Chariot’s gas projects in Morocco?

Maurice-Williams: Our recent drilling results in Morocco didn’t meet initial expectations, but the overall economic potential of the project remains strong.

We are confident in its long-term value and will continue to refine our approach to ensure optimal outcomes.

It is the extract from the ST at the IC by the looks of it

Fernan. Even if he wanted to, he can’t. They are obviously in a closed period. He has insider knowledge on Anchois, Namibia and Loukos that isn’t officially released into the market

DYOR

Https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/chariots-renewables-business-in-south-africa-saw-a-big-funding-breakthrough--icymi-3825417

Some commentary on Anchois re project economics

DYOR

Just sharing information, Fernan (assuming that's ok with you) as someone had asked about Broker Notes earlier this week. The risk number which I think shared is 8p. Stifel at 6p, and Cavendish yet to revise based on sight of Anchois. Peel Hunt remain in the 30s, but seem yet to revise.

They are directional on how the various brokerages are thinking about the current situation. I am sure you could write them a 'letter' if you're interested in finding out more..

DYOR