Member Info for Surety

All,

FWIW - this is the unrisked valuation on char

4p Onshore (Dartois ONLY)

2p Renewables

6p Core

20p Anchois based on their share of the 354BCF (all reserves and balance of Lixus/Rissanna not in)

8p Power Pipeline

6p existing power

2p Nour (Hydro)

Nothing on Namibia

40 p total

DYOR

As per Ianfer's note

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/de98b8e1-f465-54a0-bc5c-0ea8b844d81c/

SP Angel short note - Headline 'Anchois' is the key value driver for share price in short term ..

DYOR

I also want them to prove you wrong, Fernan 🙂

Auctus Headlines (not house broker)

Target reiteration of 8p

2p valuation for Etana (note suggests too conservative and need more vis)

Last note assumed 15% chance of Anchois happening and therefore 2p ish?

Loukos was 2-3p

Nothing for Namibia

Headline :

Our Core NAV based on Morocco Onshore and Tharisa is £0.03/sh. Adding the value of Anchois, Zambia power (First Quantum) and the green H2 project in Mauritania leads to a Some of the Parts Valution of £0.08/sh.

DYOR

You're right Fernan, it is half full - as opposed to completely full

I am however at least consistent with my approach. I am amazed you still hold shares.. Anyway lets leave it there.. we are both entitled to a view.

My comment on the G&A was about the future. This unlocks future funding, it's why they have done it - hence the ambition of funding at the sub level. That will offset the G&A (assuming they are successful). It increasingly looks that way.

As always time will tell. One thing we do have in common though, is that I'm not happy about the share price!!

DYOR

3 points of interest for me beyond this :

First two - where his face visibly relaxes..

1. They are clearly progressing Loukos. I think it's clear they are looking for a farmout partner (from the article shared - hence funding at the sub level), having fully remapped it. Given the cost of future wells, and the production upside + OBA1 so far, you would think this should farmout given the relatively low capex/opex.

2. They are progressing Namibia.

Both sound positive. Having been here before, I suspect JMW is unlikely to walk into the same trap again from being overtly positive unless he has reason to be...

3. He is clearly more focused on this, and aware of the contractual implications - but he clearly says they are exploring a potential development, 'including our partner who is the operator' (he very specifically says this). It doesnt sound like ENOG are walking away just yet...

Finally - despite there being a lot to do... you virtually take the Power G&A off the table from central cash burn, and that was a big number

DYOR

Yep. I am sure there will be a takeover crystallisation. That said - they are still going to want the maximum price .. so there is a strong incentive to boost the price ..

IMHO

I preferred your slightly more optimistic disposition last week, Fernan 😅

Starbanker

Definitely didnt say it for sure - hence the use of 'implies.' and the Do Your Own Research - it's purely speculative on my part

However, I do think the Lehmann paralell is a little extreme. Firstly, the main beneficiaries in our case are on Char board (and you would hope have a view on the future of the company and its cash runway) and therefore beleive the LTIPs are a future incentive, and secondly they aren't facing an existential crisis in terms of a market vacuum to the best of my knowledge that L-man faced..

All IMHO

Companies are required to release news at latest around the same as LTIPs are issues if there is any pending.. especially if it is material to the share price.

Update tomorrow or this weeks? - Either that or everything is completely locked up with and dependent on Anchois/Lixus/Risanna, in which case it's Q1/Q2?

Looking at the positive, at least the issuance of new shares implies they aren't facing an immediate insolvency event!!

DYOR

@ Dealbreaker, I would also add to this by saying

i) Enogs shareholders also need news. The analyst notes make it clear that news of a new territory is important to the forward progression of their share price

ii) Given they will want to farm in to other prospects with other partners in the future, them causing the failiure of chariot is not going to be helpful to their long term prospects

Chariot also have other potential mechanisms to generate cash inc Loukos and Power..

IMHO

Thanks Norseman.

I wonder if they are doing some form of swap. Chariot get back all of Anchois (75 percent) in exchange for giving up more of Risanna, forgoing their royalty. And potentially receiving a further cash sum

Anyone have any ideas on other prospects that look attractive outside of Lixus and Risanna.

Loukos and Power get farmed out. Hydrogen and Namibia are the wildcards

You would think some form of update soon

IMHO

I’ve just had a look at a broker note from yesterday by SP Angel, which is part of their coverage on ENOG

**There is some uncertainty following the recent unsuccessful drilling campaign at the Anchois field in Morocco, which has caused concern in the market that Energean (ENOG LN) might walk away from a smaller development project. **

Note this was written yesterday, one assumes following an analyst call with Enog. For them to tell Upstream they aren’t developing Anchois, but not tell the analyst community that they are walking away from Morocco suggests they are still negotiating .. it’s also interesting again that they seem to have played down Anchois BUT CLEARLY NOT told the market that they are walking away from Morocco …

Curios

DYOR

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/energean-to-rethink-morocco-gas-field-plans-after-disappointing-well-campaign/2-1-1746598

DYOR

Does anyone have a subscription. Looks like this is an interview following their results on Thursday. They appear to have reiterated finding gas. The title is slightly misaligned to the text - one indicating a rethink on Morocco - the other indicating they won’t develop ‘Anchois’ but no reference to Lixus.

Thanks Jimmy - not sure if a bit at the bottom was cut off?

I agree on the operator being in control of announcements - with Chariot caught in a difficult situation (to some degree of their own making)

I assume this is partly creating the delay on power - as the route they take and - how they monetise will be determined ultimately by how long this goes on for..

DYOR

Jimmy. Any thoughts on where they will be in relation to completing the A3 analysis?

DYOR

You have to assume they are still negotiating.. it’s the only explanation. For ENOG to reference Morocco in terms of costs, but not comment on the future of it

DYOR

Yep

The problem, as you know, is they bet on the drill coming in and the cash from Enog for FID for the core business . it hasn’t and therefore they don’t have the money they would have had for Loukos. I also suspect they aren’t certain enough .. and therefore are holding

I agree with the point on cash - it was all being run too tight and when you think about the Enog deal it was basically a gamble on a drill that had a 50-60 percent chance of coming off..

I am grateful they have power, it gives them something to leverage

We need to hope that they can farm a fully mapped Loukos .. proceed with Enog on Anchois or repartner (they should have a list of candidates) .. and in the meantime get some cash out of power ..

I don’t think the Moroccans will want to see chariot burn and in the event that Enog walk they definitely need them .. indirectly they can help with funding ..

And then there is Namibia and Hydrogen.

They owe us a work flow update .. which I suspect will come out of tomorrow (either by way of an update or notification of a webinar)

DYOR

How can you call me ‘another poster’ Surfit 😁

There is so much up in the air .. I get the logic that they don’t want to spend their cash on Loukos - so a farm out makes sense. If they are trying to fund everything at the sub level it seems logical as a ‘new approach’ whilst they preserve cash at the topco, and gradually offset more and more of the G&A through sub level deals. I can understand them holding back on power, Namibia and Loukos until they are clear on Anchois

DYOR

Has this changed your ‘somethings in the air’ emotion Dick?