https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/489940/hunt-considers-limiting-uk-energy-profits-tax-when-prices-fall/
The worry is that this goes on and on.. and the producers wait to commit capital for a longer period until they strong arm the government into embedding the floor..
Hopefully I’m wrong!
DYOR
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/488977/energy-economist-accuses-harbour-of-fancy-accounting-to-get-headlines/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Daily%20Newsletter%202023-03-10&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter
Clearly trying to send message to the gov, which we know. Helpful to see the context
DYOR
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/488428/harbour-energy-forecast-2022-profits/
Note extract on Harbour needing assets to offset EPL
DYOR
Extract at the bottom from last week
Hard to imagine that one or more of Ithaca, Harbour or Serica wont be involved here..
There 15th is now rapidly approaching.. as are their respective financial updates where investors will be seeking good news..
Harbour goes first next week (9th)..
DYOR
Extract
---------
Ithaca Energy (ITH) picked an interesting time to come back to public life. Its first five months since November's initial public offering (IPO) have seen oil and gas prices drop at the same time as the UK government ramped up its energy profits levy (EPL).
As a result, the company's share price is down a quarter from its IPO price of 250p, a drop similar to those sustained by other North Sea-exposed companies like Harbour Energy (HBR) and Serica Energy (SQZ) over the same period.
Executive chair Gilad Myerson told Investors’ Chronicle the EPL had taken the air out of the sector even with the government calling for greater domestic oil and gas supply. “Since the listing, we’ve faced quite some headwinds coming from the UK government,” he said, adding that Ithaca was “very committed” to developing its assets and to the North Sea specifically.
The difference a day makes :-)
The positive for me is that there is deal making activity .. ahead of the budget .. producing (acquiring) businesses are clearly believing that their EPL incentive is alive and well - perhaps with a floor on the horizon.. if the government have given sufficient reassurances then we may not have to wait until the 15th..
DYOR
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/west-of-shetland/487051/viaro-production-assets-north-sea/
Still activity taking place.. alongside everyone screaming about the EPL to the government and calling for a floor.. all roads lead to the 15th and just beyond ?!?
DYOR
James. Nice try from a provocation perspective, but I'm not taking the bait.
For clarity though - I know everything that's in the public domain (and I spend a serious amount of time reading that), and that's it I'm afraid! Sorry to disappoint ... The rest is a judgement call based on fundamentals and personal life experience. I know something about the importance of reputations though, and the difference credible management can make. The Ithaca crew tick these boxes in my head, and are the primary reason why I continued to build a larger stake over the last 12 months..
My investment is still not as grand as yours though.. ;-)
DYOR
James. I'm not going to comment on AB, but the former Ithaca guys including the relatively new chair in his first appointment as Chair (Les Thomas) have outstanding reputations, in reality amongst the best of any active directors in the North Sea. You can't seriously think they are in it for the salary! It's frustrating to even read this BS to be honest (I dont like the slide any more than you do, but cut the noise!) . It takes decades of blood, sweat and tears to build the reputations they have. They're not about to throw this away by ignoring the rules that govern the casino that we've all invested in (AIM). None of them are done yet, and it needs to go well for them to get the next gig. Les have convinced the others to come, not AB. It will have been a conviction play for all of them!
We are either waiting for just after the 15th, or someone's year end update. DU is right, if they dont have something seriously advanced they would have had to RNS by now as we're too close to the end of Q1 to create something new. The rules are clear, even those governing AIM..
I would seriously prefer a T/O and cannot get my head around why you would allow JOG to stay in as an interested producer. Buy it, and share the load with someone else - yes, keep JOG in? Given the 75% you have to pay in tax, why would you? JOG management however, with an eye on careers and future glory (not salary), will likely favour staying in.. I suspect their is some potential conflict here throughout the process..
Dont forget though, the incentive for all former Ithaca bods and ultimately AB is the share price - it's so much more material than their earnings (even at existing well paid levels!). They could get a bigger salary somewhere else (Ithaca). I suspect they have joined
They must have a plan for this month that they think is seriously viable - otherwise they should have called it already!
DYOR, but I also think this will be ok....
FrazerJ - That is actually incredibly helpful IMHO. My read on that is they must have a deal.. it’s almost as if they are trying to help JOG with the ‘however’ .. They could simply have just declined to comment in line with their policy.. As they started the initial response.. Assuming you have literally cut and paste the entire transcript (I’m not doubting your integrity by the way).
This suggests the issue is timing .. are they waiting for an announcement (results?!?) or are the producer(s) making sure the government move on the floor mechanism before showing their hand.. which is creating the delay? Will this move now that the government have indicated to the NSTA they will look at it ?
You would think the NTSA would have looked for validation from the farminee(s) or acquirer as well ?
Really interesting response…
DYOR
I guess this is all about timing! If the government are really consider a floor mechanism, then who in their right mind is going to give ammunition to the case against the need for a floor - until it's in place (ammunition being : going ahead with major farmout or take over )
Just my view!
My money is on a producer company announcement (March) timed with their results...
Depending on who, it could be anywhere between early and late March!!
I think if it's anything other than this, then Benitz has to go.. and as a collective we should call for that!
DYOR
DYOR
Robsroom... I'd point you to the share price in May/June 2019 just prior to the GBA licence award announcement, where it nearly quadrupled in short order (for something far less valuable - i.e. licence awards!). The share price looked equally depressed and on its way to oblivion at that point (despite speculation the licences were about to be awarded)..
I'm not buying the direction of travel argument on the current price.. Of course that doesn't mean I'm right ;-)
I do however think a T/O is most likely.. I just dont get why you would farm in and share the spoils (on the third largest pre FID project, the only one not owned by a large producer) when you can acquire this for a song and largely offset the acquisition cost..
DYOR / IMHO and all of that good stuff...
News soon please!!
I do my best Robsroom... hope its more £6+ personally!!
The trades are relatively small at the moment! I'm not particularly worried about the share price movement right now..
What do you really think Robsroom? You've been in for a while !?!