Member Info for Stupmy

I'd have thought that this weekend would be a great time for that twit on twatter to make a new prediction. Closer you get to a deadline, the more likely you are to get a hit on a random guess.

Ex-Hedge fund manager. Famous for his poor predictions in fact. 46.8% hit rate. A monkey would beat him over time. Having said that I have no comment to make on his comments on the truth etc.

I believe some people use Cramer's predictions as an 'inverse indicator'.

Over 11% at the current prices. There is an implication though that the SP will fall by 10p. Depends how long it stays fallen as to whether it's a good thought or not. I bought a few at about 177.

At least the US markets haven't continued down after we closed.

He's leaving it late.

What's that twit on twatter saying about all this? He's nailed it up to now!

Had a weird daydream that Trump was going to say "Only joking" and the SP would fly. He's only got 10 mins to get me into profit on that trade.

I bought a few around 177

Could be tax year related CS, but the US tax year is Jan-Dec and they've continued the selling today. I'm not sure how much of the WG selling is that, but as you say, could be some. There's a lot coming off today

I didn't say 246/7 is a good entry, just that the SP is likely to get to that level. Once it gets there, you can be speculative and buy or you can wait to see whether the SP continues down or turns. As with a lot of corrections, this one is present us with many value opportunities, it's now a case of deciding which ones make most sense, which ones will turn a profit fastest

But that's where it all gets very difficult. The chart clearly can't predict up front that Trump will be elected or he will set tariffs etc. Also, how much does that affect an individual company like CBG? I guess, you could argue that if car sales fall related to tariffs, leisure spend etc then CBG's business changes and probably that revenue stream is reduced. But although most of us try to rationalise SP changes, I think often we do not come the right conclusions. There's something bigger at work.

One thing is that the recent bull run, beautifully exemplified by the US500 or Nasdaq has brought everyone on board. On the one hand many (most?) fund managers have positions in the US indices, MAG7 members separately etc. Trackers alone account for a massive amount of money and that money doesn't just come from the US. UK money is invested in US markets. If you overlay that with 2 and 3 x leverage as people get into a frenzy with buying high hoping for higher, then the whole thing looks shaky. Once people on leverage get scared, they pull out or are forced out and markets start to drop. The background newsflow stokes up more fear and people stop putting more money into trackers and even pull some out of the funds. That's everything in an index, they all come down if you pull money from Trackers. Not sure how much is in FTSE trackers, but I'd guess it's applicable/relevant. There's been a loss of confidence in MAG 7 companies and you'd have to question their valuation metrics in some cases at least, but there are a lot of companies already trading on low valuations (in CBG's case due to a special situation), these companies are the pretty horses running out with the nags when the barn burns down. Watching for them to bottom has got to give you a great chance of making money over the medium term (once the special situation resolves).

The chart cannot predict the future, that's nonsense, but it can highlight certain risks and it can give you a grasp of which risks are more or less likely.

Also, I don't worry too much about 'missing out' for the sake of 5% (it could be more, remember I view the price as very likely to reach 246, but it could go lower. After that level (if it arrives) I'll be watching closely if I can price action etc.

Missing out doesn't matter, I don't have to shoot every rabbit in the field. I watch a few (often about 10-15) and chase the fat (high conviction) ones. Often the fall like shoes, one after another rather than all at the same time. That means profit from one can roll to the next often.

You're right, I've missed some big swings, including the one over the last couple of days to 330+. If I could have nailed those with confidence, then you're also right that I should have done that. I have to have rules and do my best to have the discipline to stick to them. I see 246 or below as high probability and also believe that it represents good value on a good company that's at serious of risk of suffering from bad publicity, but pretty low risk of being destroyed by the Car finance scandal. So for me at a the right price, I'm very interested here. For the swings, I do sometimes (incl CBG) take them (small stakes that I don't comment on) and I usually make some money, but miss the tops etc (classic things that most PI's get less than perfect/wrong). Those swing trades keep me from going mad sitting doing nothing in front of my screens.

When a SP hits specific levels, it becomes lower risk (in my view) and has a much higher probability of giving a good return over a reasonable time-frame (in this case some of the upside levels are easy to pick out). On those ones, at the right levels, I use large position size and don't have to sit and watch, I have the conviction in the trade to just leave it and check in from time to time.

So I guess it's about conviction, predictability (if I'm right about the price level, then the SP is moving in a way that I'm understanding at least partly), quality of the company (even when in a special situation) and then if all is correct big position size and low stress levels.

And it has to be both, so it's not coming soon.

Easy Scotty, that'll not go down well, describing EZJ as a "big smouldering turd". I'm assuming you got yourself tongue tied talking to SK?

Your doing well Xhita if it pushes you're average up! Good work. With what Trumps 'financial diplomacy' is currently doing to international markets (let's call those the barn and he's burning it down), I have to say that the pretty horses are running out with the nags. There are so many 'compelling' horses to bet on that for me, it's now a case of thinking about which ones will settle and recover fastest.

I think I have it. If POO falls below 71.4 (dollars) and Gas falls below 0.54 GBP per therm for 2 consequtive quarters.

"the EPL will permanently be disapplied if average oil and gas prices are both at or below the ESIM price threshold for 2 consecutive quarters. The ESIM threshold prices were calculated using a 20-year historic average to the end of 2022 and are set at $71.40 per barrel of oil and £0.54 per therm of gas."

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/technical-note-energy-profits-levy-energy-security-investment-mechanism/energy-profits-levy-energy-security-investment-mechanism-technical-note

Also, Onedb1 or anyone with an interest in TA/Charts, how do you now try to guess rationally at price levels where buyers might become interested? The PMO consolidation was Jun 2021 effectively gapping the price up from 17/18 to 400 (20x). The price is now within that 'gap' if you can call it that (I don't consider it as a gap). So any supports come from before the consolidation. I can't really rationalise that in my head, but one thing I've learned over time, is that it can be very profitable to accept that these things sometimes can't be rationalised on a rational basis and to just go with the next best (most obivious) thing. So, for me next best is to ignore the consolidation and look at Jan/Mar 2015 If that holds any value in investors/traders minds, then the 180 should hold. For that to hold, the SP would need to be above by close of business today. Currently that's not looking particularly likely. After that, May/July/Oct 2018 as support at around 135-140 (interestingly that is supported by the same period as the 180 price idea, i.e. Jan/Mar 2015 (it was a range). At 140, the dividend would be 14.3% if it was maintained. I'd imagine we'd need further falls in POO though for that to happen and that would put the divi under pressure.. There's a lot to think about. Anyone have a view?

What were the details for that Onedb1? I just did a quick search, but was getting too much peripheral info so it's taking too long. I don't remembery the prices (65? 3 or 6mths?). No idea for Gas.

Yeah, bring back Truss & Kwasi. Just in case that doesn't save us, I was wondering.

With the divi at 11.2%, is it worth dropping my spare cash in HBR. Take the 5.5% on the 10th (?).

I have enough HBR now that I'd take more in divis than the highest salary I ever had (including bonuses). I could basically sit back and do nothing for a couple of years.