Member Info for Stupmy

30th August I posted this "I have to say, I'm absolutely not a fan of conspiracy theories. The move down is small so far. Personally I could imagine a move up to 302/303 then back down to 283 or lower. Just because many of you/us believe that completion of the deal will see the SP rise higher, doesn't mean that in the meantime it will not be prone to normal market forces. If it goes back to 283 or below, I'll start to get interested again."

and the price did indeed move upto 302-303 and has now come back down to 282.45. Not a bad call all in all.

I think we have different data on those gaps. I read off 1 day and 2h charts most frequently (I reference other time frames for different reasons). The data you refer to corresponds to my 2h charts. Silver is seeing further weakness, and the FRES SP is breaking to the downside again. If you look at the volume profile of transactions/price you'll see that for the last 5mths, there have been relatively few transactions between 527 and 485. That suggests to me that there's likely to be little support for the SP if we close below 527. We're currently showing 526. No-one can see into the future, but it does look likely now that we'll see 469/470 or below. I'm watching and waiting.

Does anyone have a link where I could study this idea of market manipulation by MM's in a low liquidity environment. I normally disregard ideas of manipulation, but if someone has a resource link to shed light on this phenomenon, I'd be very keen to study it?

I didn't find the passenger numbers exciting. Looked to be topping out to me. Doesn't surprise me at all that there the SP is not rising in response.

There's been some discussion here about listing the US. I know nothing about Falcon Oil and Gas but it's planning to relist in the US. In order to do so it's planning at 250 to 1 consolidation. They're hoping that listing in the US will raise awareness of US investors and provide access to additional sources of capital. RNS this morning. Thought some might be interested to follow that story and see how it unfolds.

Interesting to hear that from someone on the ground as it were. Sounds like more good news for EZJ.

Xhita, RYA are looking into package holidays. My guess is that they share your view that EZJ has stolen a march there and gained a competitive edge. For me I view it as a positive short/medium term for us as they seem to be chasing the idea. For the longer term I don't know.

Silver and gold dropping sharply at the moment. Just from a TA perspective. I have Fres coming off to 470 or below and probably 457 or below. The storm doesn't look to be over here. That's at odds with most of what I'm listening to and reading in the media. Most are suggesting buy gold/silver, some are suggesting buy gold/silver stocks. But that's not looking like great advice for the moment.

Agreed, I think we're largely on the same page. What I would say though is that there are a lot of bb's where people currently view their chosen shares as a bit special in the way they are undervalued. I suspect that not everyone is right. I also think that there seem to be a lot of opportunities on the LSE at the moment. Make my head spin sometimes. I do agree YOU looks to be a wothwhile addition to a portfolio. I'm being very cautious at the moment though.

Do you not think that what you're describing as 'not normal' is just the flip side of the discussion we were having on this bb a while back where it was suggested the small float of shares, tightly held nature of the share register and related low liquidity could push the SP up quickly. Is this not just the flip side? I no longer use L2, but I'd imagine the bids and offers on the book are thin, the spread is reasonably high for anyone wanting to transact a certain number of shares and there fore a couple of sells could have it off what looks like a ridiculous amount in the absence of sufficient bids? All looks normal to me and is a risk of low liquidity. Up until Jun 20th daily volume was really not inspiring, it then picked up on the big drop from around 835 to 495 in a day. That's to be expected, big volume confirming some conviction selling. Sine that time the price dropped from 495 to around 405 on Jul 1st. The volume has remained reasonable, but has trended down from the first drop to now. The rise from 405 ish to 590ish is a huge rise. That's around a 50% profit for anyone that bough at the low. What we're probably seeing is 2 things. Profit taking from those that got good entries, but also some of those that didn't get out on the original drop may now be thinking themselves lucky to be able to drop out at 590 rather than 405, as the price drops away some holders that feel trapped or not convinced of the future will continue to rationalise. We need to see some buyers coming in now to oppose the selling (mop up the shares). Smart money doesn't come in randomly, it looks for areas of 'value'. Most of the transactions (buyers and sellers) since June have been active between 432 and 462p per share. Should the price come off a little more, then that's where I'd expect to see buyers come back in. My guess still remains 441/442 or below.

Thanks Tom, no-one can see into the future, but there have been some signs this was likely to fall back. It might not close below 489 (idealy 487 in fact), but if it does then there is a very good chance that it'll come off to 441 or lower. Since I've moved largely to cash and that I think there is plenty of growth to come here, I want it to fall. I currently don't have any exposure. It's just one of a few shares that interests me. If we get to what would seem to be 'extra-ordinary value', then I'll start buying again.

I saw the buyers trying to bring that dip back up and I get your point that I was quick off the mark with my comment. I'm not seeing anything very convincing mind you about it rising from here. There are a number of charts with similar characteristics at the moment and I can't help wondering whether an event/newsflash not directly related to the company will have a wider spread sell off starting. I've moved a lot to cash for the moment. Whether I can control myself with 'all of the bargains' that I can see is another question

I'd say you've got that the wrong way around. It's not a nightmare for traders, it's a gift. It's a nightmare for those investors that don't have conviction in the story for whatever reason. It'll make them uncomfortable. The story looks strong, so I'd imagine that the upside will prevail soon after the deal is delivered. Until then, those that can will continue to trade it.

I have to say, I'm absolutely not a fan of conspiracy theories. The move down is small so far. Personally I could imagine a move up to 302/303 then back down to 283 or lower. Just because many of you/us believe that completion of the deal will see the SP rise higher, doesn't mean that in the meantime it will not be prone to normal market forces. If it goes back to 283 or below, I'll start to get interested again.

The pattern has broken now and risks further downside. A close below 489 looks to signal a high probability of meaningful falls

Is support still there at 340? Apparently not. Price is looking for further downside as I type (336.8). Starting to look as though 300 is quite likely now.

As on many bb's there's clear 'interest' in 'investing' vs 'trading'. Seems to create big emotions on every bb. This bb has a good few very bright people and some very good discussion. Maybe this video would be interesting with those open to spending an hour listening to someone who's succeeded. This video (over an hour) is interesting in this respect and puts AI and algo's into a sensible perspective going forward. Something for everyone in here I'd say. Not intentionally, but I'm an investor in ENQ!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMlAi0B-rlE

There's a battle going on between buyers and sellers. Being sold down from 514-518 but being bought up from 489, 497, 500, 502. That gradual rise in the price at which the buyers are coming suggests a slight bias towards the bulls. Not desperately convincing though. Worth considering the wider markets also. Some big players are reducing their exposure to equities.

Maybe the buyer was ENQ itself on the buyback program.

I considered that Dumbly. I wondered whether it could have been stops being hit dropping us to 12.16 or so, then rapid buying. Volume was 'decent' over the last 4 hours for the drop and recovery. I'm choosing to see it as a positive, indicating that there are buyers out there. But that's the rose tinted specs of being stuck in a losing position.