Member Info for Stupmy

I'm watching it very closely. On the face of it there is no HBR related reason for a fall in the SP. But wider market woes could easily impact the SP. I'd say that as long as we don't close below 275, there's nothing much to worry about. If we closed below 275, it would make 267 or lower quite likely. Any bad media speculation or news could have this back down to 252 or below. Never say never. As I say I'm watching closely.

Paying attention to price movements and the wider markets can prevent significant opportunity cost. I care about it and for me it's the difference between profit and loss. It is very, very important.

Thumper, swazers view is not unreasonable. I would not discount the possibility of a fall back to 423 or lower (if that happens it'll probably go to 418 or lower. I would also not discount the possibility of seeing 370. What comes first is what's really interesting. We had a bullish move on friday and finished high. That often leads to further gains the next trading day. As to whether the chart shows a bullish or bearish trend, that depends on your time frame. If you look from Sept 2022 to now, it could be argued to be bullish, with higher lows and higher highs (I've discussed that in more detail previously). If you look at it from it's recent peak in April this year, then the trend is bearish with lower lows and lower highs. The bullish move that started Aug 5th might well continue today in which case I'd hope for 451 or higher then there's the descending tl that might act as resistance around 465-468. I'm cautious on the upside potential with so much wider market worry about, but being long, I'm hopeful we get to the trendline and test it. Clearly lots of potential upside here, but when will it be realised?

Heathrow traffic data was very upbeat this morning. That might encourage buying as it suggests that demand for travel from the UK remains high.

Not my style Stille, don't even like them. I did the canonball run a couple of times, but bough Yank Classics for it. Not a good decision 2nd time round, ended up ditching it in Lyon (last leg) and hitching a ride in a souped up Jap sportscar.

No good to me, I can barely get 5kg out of the boot.

Agree completely with your arguments, well stated D. Would love the levy to be removed, totally unreasonable tax levy.

Even trying to explain very simple concepts that relate to the liklihood of a SP move in a certain direction or to a certain level impossible to many people. They are often hard wired to research the fundamentals of one specific markt, believe they know enough to make money and totally ignore the actual mechanics of their chosen market and hence don't make money or worse lose it. And these are bright, educated people. The problem is that many cannot get beyond how human nature emprisons us. Once you can bust free of normal natural impulses, you're set to start earning from the markets in my view.

Destbroker, completely agree. The markets are incredibly complex and those with the greatest understanding are often not able to make money in them. Most people over complicate and lose. The markets and the media are a machine that aims to take you money off players and the players actually buying into it and helping the machines succeed. I view it in the same way, that is essentially taxing those with enough money to invest. Every bb is virtually identical, because each is a microcosm of a complex system that's got it's dirty little fingers in your pocket. It isn't benign. I'm not a conspiracy theorist and don't spend much time thinking about that side, our own natures lead us into the lion's den and there are not many people whose mind sets allow them to thrive in there.

Off topic but relevant: Here's a nice little video about Li Lu, his relationship with Buffet and Munger and his (and their) views on investing. Although not specifically related to any one company, the principles described in their successful approaches might be reassuring. Probably it'll seem very obvious, but I thought I'd post it anyway. Doesn't hurt to listen to expert views. I suggest it's reassuring because I they describe the patience needed to get value out of some good companies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ig1hi2ql-E8

Volume, although not high, has been increasing nicely over yesterday and today. Still a high risk of a drop back to 423 area (but no idea how fast that might happen) and the bigger picture still points to a risk of 375 (I'd imagine that would require another stock market rout). Lovely to see the price rising for now.

I've seen this before with G-Finance listing very dodgy closing prices. I think yesterday most on my watchlist were way out. Not sure what goes wrong there, but best to have another source for closing prices.

I originally posted the idea of it not being legal. At first it was worded as an 'Excess Profits Levy', that changed to Energy Profits Levy, but I suspect that SEK is right. I'm with you that the EPL is based on a flawed original rationale, but fear that any legal challenge would be unlikely to succeed. I have no particular knowledge of the law though. It just seems to be wrong in it's conception, wrong it's implementation and now simply wrong as the POO has reverted to levels around it's long term mean. Maybe I'm being defeatest but I suspect it's here to stay. On a brighter note, the SP has come up from it's low (albeit on low volume). Maybe the bottom is in? Maybe that's rose-tinted glasses. Who knows, no-one can see into the future. With no good reason, I do personally think we'll get out of this one with a good profit.

A little in the next hour then we might be on for a rise to 451 or higher (not high enough for me). Does seem to be increased interest.

Tom, looking good for further gains and I agree that medium-long term you'll see the price increase and your profits with it. I have to stick with my shorter term rules and as I said got out on the rise. I still think that we'll see 441 or lower and that at some point in the future I'll have the choice to re-enter. Maybe that's wishful thinking as I agree that YOU seems to be undervalued. But I work on 'likely outcomes' and get in and out in ranges that look likely to give me a high chance of profit. I hope all that have held make lots of money. Good call for you so far. Let's see if we get anywhere near 6.50.

I bought some more. From a TA perspective it looks like more buyers are coming in.

Madmat, I did say my memory was crap. To be honest the exact figures are less important to me than the general change. That is even worse than I suggested though so at least it fits with my view that it's not a good report. Thanks for the detail.

I bought a few. Bit speculative with only the weakest evidence that buyers are taking control, but I'm off out and have been waiting a long time to buy again. We're very close to the previous low, debt is coming down, profit is good (although revenues look less impressive). I don't have that much faith in the POO being 85-90 as the evidence seems to be increasing that the US is entering a recessionary period, but I'm hoping that downside is now limited. It's a lot lower now than when the SP sat at 40 in May.

Thanks Falvius

Stille, I have only the highest level understanding of things like volatility and carry trades. People like Pokerchips or bonker have a much better low level understanding. But even having the basics is better than having nothing. At least I can see that there is more risk now than a couple of weeks ago. Madmat mentioned the jobs data from the US and downplays it. I see that differently. The original expectation was (from memory which is terrible) was around 209,000, that was revised down to 180,000 and the actual NFP's reported were 140,000. Since the data is commonly revised down the month/s after reporting, that 140,000 could become worse. That's a big change. It's a single month though. All eyes on the FED's decision on interest rates in Sept. Speculation has increased that the FED will cut by .5%. Most traders/investors think that will free up money and lead to further buying of stocks that will drive the markets higher. History shows you should sell the drop in rates.

Flavius, what about the hedges. What what did TLW hedge their oil prices at before those hedges expired. They say that the expiration favours profit. If POO drops, how much does it need to drop before the extra profit from expired hedges is wiped out? Not followed the detail here for a while, the SP is now low enough for it to be of interest to me again.