Member Info for Stupmy

Stille, made me laugh out loud 'no one needs Cava at breakfast (I do)', switch out the white sparkly stuff for Riojo chez moi!! Loved that.

Liked the new'ish', was thinking along the same lines when I read your post, the algo's might be more sophisticated now, might be moving more money now, but they've been active for a good few year. They even build data/trading centers as close to the bourse as possible for those ms advantages. Crazy, crazy stuff. But I see that as our edge. We're not based on ms or s, we're based at some level on rational thought over shorter or longer periods, but nothing like ms/s. But to be honest the CTA's are focussed on trends. Once trends are no longer trends you have to look for turning points. Look at TUI, it looks to have bottomed as is turning. Any CTA's involved in that market will have to turn with it, shorts will be covered. EZJ may not have bottomed, but you'd imagine that if TUI turned, EZJ should benefit. I guess CTA's might be more focussed on composites. But I'm optimistic of a change in direction. I still call 370-375

It looks as if they're trying to fill capacity with last minute travellers. I doubt many could actually take advantage of that offer in a sensible way. You can't plan ahead, you have to be ready to just up and go multiple times a year (without baggage).

Is it as simple as that masai? EZJ are doing well, making good profit, having a record breaking year and bringing down debt. The SP there is behaving in a similar way to here. Maybe we're missing something more general in the travel/leisure sector. I see mPox got a special mention in the news yesterday (https://www.yahoo.com/news/declares-mpox-public-health-emergency-173843354.html) and that COVID 19 shows very high levels of activity in almost all US states (testing of wastewate). Neither one of these looks likely to impact travel. Must be some reason that investors are shunning these shares? Fears of recession and reduction in discretionary spend? If it is that, then the markets are looking quite a long way forward as the sector is likely to do well over the next 6mths.

Blimey, still a complete whitewash at Drax then, very much like our EPL.

Drax is a funny one. Green energy in the form of woodchips from North Carolina made from plantation trees but also significant amounts from virgin forrest (at least that was true when last I looked at them). What was it in the budget of 2022 (maybe earlier that immediately knocked the SP for six) was that a tax of some sort? Any comparison there with the EPL and it's legality? I did have a quick google but couldn't get the answer. I remember it as I was exposed at the time it happened and watching as the SP action unfolded.

Thanks Stipers, I am very surprised to see the SP at 5.6. Had to have a double take to let that sink in. EZJ have a similar troubled period despite good results and good analyst opinion.

I've just been looking at TUI. They did a 3rd RI in Mar 2022. At that time the TERP was 9.138 euros. This whole situation was somewhat confused by the move from LSE to MDAX (Frankfurt; completed June 2024). TUI's results have been encouraging and upbeat since that time, but the SP low was 435ish (a 52% decline). Despite bolstering their finances with 3 RI's and paying back the Government debt (to cover COVID), the SP max since the RI has been around 8 euros (still 12 % below the TERP). So, not sure that TERP will be very useful. I just asked on the TUI board for some feedback and am told they are doing well, profits are up, the company is not overly affected by Geopolitical risks etc.

Personally I'm shocked to see TUI shares at 5.6 euros. I hope we fare better here.

With such an upbeat announcement today. Could anyone explain why TUI's loss is bigger in Q3 2024 than Q3 2023? I've just checked in on the SP and was surprised to see how low it was. When the the UK listing transferred (I guess June) I seemed to remember the german listing was around 7 euros. I'm currently not exposed to TUI, but am interested in the decline in SP here and with EZJ (I have exposure there).

Any help on this would be appreciated.

Sept 9th 2021 EZJ published their prospectus for a RI of 1.2 billion pounds

Sept 28th they reported 93% takeup and who had taken control of the rump.

The price before the RI was 789, the TERP was 638 and the current price is 437.

That means the current SP is trading at 31.5% of the TERP. If all things were the same today as in Sept 2021 the SP should be trading at 638. The RI helped EZJ deal with it's COVID related debt problems. So in that respect the company should have been stronger after the RI than before the RI and had the SP stayed at or above 638 then those participating would not have been diluted. The RI would have been a neutral event to those SH's.

My understanding is that EZJ is stronger because of the RI and it's strength is currently increasing. So 638 should not even now be the base case expectation for the SP. The risk perception over the COVID period has to have been worse than that at the current time. Without significant other information, in my view at 437p per Share, EZJ is highly likely to turn me a profit. I just don't know when.

As previously stated I view some down side SP movement as not unlikely. But to be clear, I view the future positively and would expect at some point the SP to exceed 638 (in the absence of further information).

From a chart perspective. Weekly volumes have been dropping significantly from a high in Mid July. If they don't significantly improve this week, then this weeks data will close out at it's lowest level since Dec 2022. Jan 2023 marked the start of a rise in the SP from around 320 to 520. There are also potential signs developing in the weekly chart that might be permissive for a change in SP direction to the upside. A close of any week below 407 or so would very much increase the liklihood of us seeing 370-375. How long we'd stay at that level is anyone's guess. Bearing in mind that the SP already looks at least 31.5% undervalued (in a naive and simplistic sense), it's not hard to imagine that we move up from here rather than down.

Just thinking out loud, but these are things I'm considering from a personal perspective.

What we're left with is trying to figure out probabilities of what come next. TA/Charting posts draw a lot of abuse and trolling. I try to work out why that is, because human nature interests me. When I post something, I'm genuinely trying to contribute honestly to a discussion and yet it's often not welcome. I think it's because people are not even open enough to study TA. In their minds it's mumbo jumbo so they don't get past that far enough to check it out sensibly. So instead of evaluating it, they become afraid of it, because the posts are often counter to their views and where they've taken their risks. So those posts introduce confusion into their minds, that increases their anxiety levels. Since on a certain level we all know that no-one can see into the future, then introducing an alternative possibility to someone who'se risking hard earned money in the markets dents their confidence, increases their anxiety and reduces their conviction. That makes them angry. Better to be wrong with high conviction? You decide. So they get moody and abuse the poster. Just like a bully would in school.

For what comes next, it's obvious what comes next. No-one knows. You have to decide for yourselves. But I would again recommend learning about TA because the serious money does not enter and exit positions randomly, there are reasons for those entries and exits. TA can help you to understand where the most likely entry and exit points will be. No guaranteed projection of the future. Even Buffet can't give you that. Remember him buying to Tesco at around 500p?

In my view as I've stated previously 423 or lower is quite likely. If it drops there I don't see how it can avoid 418 or lower. 370-375 is not out of the question. But, again as I've said before, knowing whether it goes up first or down first is much harder to predict (for me; maybe others can do this well). I'm long and hoping for the upside and there are some pretty attractive upside targets. I will certainly manage my exposure if we rise. I'm currently almost double my core holding. That was a mistake. The mistake was 1) increasing significantly for a relatively small improvement in my average entry. 2) refusing to open my computers while I was away with my family (they showed me SP's while I was their using their phones; I don't use a phone). I saw the SP rise on the results, fall back and I saw 3 opportunities to reduce my holding at profit and to exploit the changes in the SP. I stuck to my guns and didn't open my computer. Family is more important and I have conviction that 438 undervalues EZJ value. That leaves me with opportunity cost until I start exiting. No ones fault other than mine. My decisions, my responsibility whether there was manipulation or conspiracy or not.

Almost everything that people post on BB's is opinion. So it's largely pointless adding IMO/IMHO/IMVHO etc. But, I'll give you a fact. No-one can see into the future. No opinion, no matter how confidently presented overcomes the fact that 'no-one can see into the future'. That's a problem for human nature. People want to have high levels of confidence in the outcomes of their actions individually or in a group. Many of you will be used to group think in management meetings. Often the loudest, most confidently posited opinion will be accepted by the group as we like to have confidence. The quiet person in the corner meekly suggesting alternatives will frequently be overlooked as their demeanor does not instill confidence. A poor history of good decision making for the cofident person often does not harm his/her credibility and that person will often be promoted as he/she gives others faith that it'll be ok. So there is no personal accountability. The quiet person in the corner is often the deeper thinker, will often have a much better record of successful vs unsuccessful decision making and most frequently will not be followed or promoted. A strong history of positive decision making does not benefit them as their decisions have largely been put to one side and no-one remembers that they were made when those of the confident person fail. Same on bb's, those with apparent knowledge who speak loudly and confidently (often arrogantly) are not the right people to follow. Look for the quiet guys with a good history of success. And once you've identified them ignore them anyway. Read their comments, understand them and formulate them in a way that makes sense to you. Since you cannot see into the future, you can't play a blame game and you absolutely must follow your own nose and take responsibility for your decisions. Claiming manipulation and conspiracy is the reason for not getting what you want is nonsense. Maybe at times things are manipulated, maybe at times there are conspiracies, but what you need to do is to take a grown up approach and exploit the fallout from what's happening. Instead of moaning about it, exploit it. 438p per share is better than 590 p per share as an entry price to a long investor/trader. It might go lower, but buying now has exploited the 'manipulation' that has led to the SP decline. No point crying and moaning and sitting on your hands. It won't bring your money back. No-one knows what's coming next. Take a look at the brilliantly intelligent financial commentators everywhere on youtube etc. Some say we're heading for a market crash, others that markets will continue to grow. If most of us were honest with ourselves we would not believe we're capable of even properly understanding each side of their arguments. For most it's an academic excercise that keeps their minds sharp and interested. Many of these brilliant people cannot make money in the markets. Brilliance is not what leads to profits in the markets. I'll continue

I disagree with a lot of that Garonne. No idea about manipulation (other than the MM's moving price to do their jobs and the media moving from one side of the happy-sad baromter to the other). I'm not a conspiracy type, but I know that SP's are changed by market participants, including MM's, retail punters, institutions, banks, pensions, funds etc.

The price is demonstrably not staying static, it's just not doing what you think it should be doing. If EZY is undervalued (anyone long, which includes me must believe that) then over time it's SP will change to reflect the difference between that undervaluation and it's true value. The market will determine that over time. Time is the critical issue and it's something many don't seem to undertand. Xhita comments perjoratively on traders, but their sense of time is just different to that of investors. So, if you're an investor and have conviction that the current SP undervalues the company, then you should buy. If you're a long-side trader however, you need to have conviction (in my view) that the underlying asset (the company) is nearer a low point that a high point and try to guess what the smaller price movements are likely to be. These approaches involve thinking about time. Either sit back and chill, 'knowing' that over time you'll reap rewards, or be active and attempt to exploit the shorter term movements. They're not mutually exclusive. I do both, neither is better or worse than the other, it's often personal personalities that favour one over another. What you have to do is to get your decisions right enough to make good money and try to avoid too much opportunity cost. To say the EZJ SP has stayed static is a nonsense. From the low in Oct 2023 of 350, it moved up to 590 in Apr this year and it fell back to 408 in on Aug 5th this year. These are large price movements that can be exploited to make large amounts of money. This is a good market to make money. But if you started to go long in April you've not been making money. You've been losing it. A conviction at that time that 590 represented value was simply wrong. The market is telling you that. That's not manipulation. That's simply making bad decisions and we should be responsible for our own decisions. The closer you can buy to the lows, the better the chance you have of avoiding opportunity cost, avoiding losses and making profits. In my view, learning how to value a company is very important. You can do that based on fundamentals and in my view Xhita has a good handle on how to do that. But, ignoring the market (the sum of all of the opinions on the companies valuation seems madness. Look into TA/charting and how to get a feel for the perception of market participants. Really, it is very, very important.

Well said Aim.

I like the way you're arguing this Dumbly, it does help to put it into perspective. I can't help thinking though that O and G companies have legal departments that would be on top of changing legislature. Would be great if there was a way to overturn the EPL (Scottish independence?: if I say that often enough maybe I'll help to ignite a groundswell of opinion that would give the government a poke in the eye), but I think I'll just have to keep working around it and keep trying to overcome the damage it's doing to my investments by trading in other areas. Love the thoughts though. Great discussion.

We all know it's madness and that the EPL specifically is devisive and damaging nonsense. That's not helping us as investors. We need some change, but when will it come? At the end of this parliament if things are demonstrably bad? Scottish independence, would almost certainly help us as investors in the NS now. Even the threat of it, might soften the governments stance on O&G. I'm against it as a human being, but can't help thinking it's one road to more profit (that's me as a market participant!! Not pretty I know, but I'm in this to make a profit.

A clear demonstration of the governments fallibility and lack of depth of knowledge. More to come I suspect. EV's are already starting to show the public the pitfalls of believing the government. Almost like a new drug, best to wait for others to try it before trying it yourself (if you have the luxury to chose).

In my view it's off topic, but not far off topic AimOK

423 or lower now looks very likely Stille, that will probably lead to 418. The more important question is, will we avoid the drop to the 370-375 area?

US markets dropping, I guess it's this more general risk off that's bring the SP down.

The reaction from Aberdeen could fuel renewed calls for Scottish independence. An independent Scotland currently would depend heavily on the O&G industry. I'm personally against splitting up the union but if it happened it would likely change the EPL for the better.

I'll have a read of that later this afternoon swazers, thanks for sharing.