Member Info for Stupmy

Well that is a glass half full view. The hedge funds have been buyin the dip. The narrative in the press is going to push improving US economic data and media and hedgefunds are going to want you to buy this dip. Might have some legs. JPM suggest undwinding of the Yen Carry trade is only 50-60% over. Those traders caught in that are looking to unload the rest of the trade into this rally. I guess it'll be a battle between the two. At the moment the CTAs have not started a significant sell-off, presumably due to the hedgefunds buying this dip. Any further drops will trigger the CTAs to sell. That could very well start a longer term bearish move. Beware the media, it is not benign.

What will happen between now and christmas that will remove the opportunity to buy cheap shares and why do you state that with such conviction as if it was a fact?

Surprised you've not got a clever retort here KO, you're normally my goto moron? Nothing to add? Crying over the SP?

Sek, we discussed recently about your calculations on value, where the SP should be etc and I don't argue with your work. I suggested you were missing a piece of the puzzle that might explain why, despite you having a great graspof the fundamentals, the SP could move against yuo. This is not related to O&G, but it's intelligent and frequently made me laugh. This is a little tiny bit of the parts you can never really know. This really is marginal in many ways to ENQ, but it's very, very interesting.

Just for the hell of it mind, 12.25, I told you so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9EOaIFjwOk

They'll be fine, my guess is price will fall back to 441 or lower. I closed out on the spike, hoping for that fall back to consider buying again.

I think it's a dangerous approach this time round. It looks likely to me that the sell-off in US big 7 stocks will continue and the wider composite indexes have further to fall. I can only imagine that the UK market will also fall back. Not convinced that this a dip you should be buying.

No-one can see into the future so good luck with it whatever you do.

I guess there's some valuation in there, but this is mostly perception. Also, the big 5 or big 7 are disapointing and are selling off (that's US and the US is bombing). For value, EZY looks good value, but when the panic starts everything sells down. Not looking pretty out there.

Not done that yet Oxygen, but I'm always on my guard for the temptation. Afterall it's all fuel, how bad could it be?

Thanks Xhita, good info and encouraging in the medium term.. I can't help thinking we'll see 405 area. If that holds and we see a rise then it would represent the 3rd higher low since Oct 2022 (i.e. continuation of a bullish trend on the weekly chart). To get the 4th higher high would require the SP to exceed 590ish. Not sure how likely that is as the US slides into a recession and with a widespread stock sell off going on. If we get more job losses in the US and that spreads to to Europe we could see 375 or lower. It's difficult to believe that we could challenge the covid lows of 278, but when there's a fire in the barn, the pretty horses come galloping out with the nags.

Brilliant Tigar.

A 1.2p divi would be almost 10% at the current SP. If they continue the buybacks, the divi becomes less expensive or the company can theoretically pay a higher divi. It's a shame the buybacks are not currently raising the SP. I stick to my view that we will see 12.25 (from memory as I don't have my software open). But I'm guessing it could all change quite quickly if buybacks continued and SH's were rewarded for their opportunity cost, stress, losses, patience, whatever.

It's getting tedious waiting though.

This'll all have to work it's way through the systems of the various carriers. I'd be interested to know if others have a view on the likely hit to us? Xhita? Anyone with knowledge? I'm guessing that we will not have to pay compensation, but we must have lost money and must be considering taking action against crowdstrike.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/delta-ceo-says-outage-cost-111846591.html

Jumbo, I think 375 area is now not unlikely. However no-one can see into the future. I've not opened my computer since going away with the family and have clearly missed some great trading opportunities. Fingers crossed I'll get some more before the SP drops to 375 (if it does). Difficult game. I agree with Poker that the US data does not show that the US is booming. The true picture is hidden in a lot deceiving detail and it shows a consumer under pressure, a housing market that could drop back a fair bit as inventory is high (despite the headline data showing that demand and supply are in a good position (they are not; the data is very skewed and doesn't account for new builds). Credit delinquencies are very high and interest rates are rising, service staples like Burger King, retail such as Walmart are all pointing to a consumer under pressue. Walmart is interesting, it's now targeting higher earners (who are now under pressure and are moving to Walmart as a value offer). I'm not an expert buy my understanding is that the US is headed towards a hard landing, with their banks holding a significant amount of debt associated with commercial real estate. The contracts on the debt mean that those that are holding the real estate, can just walk away and leave the banks with the properties and with the debt. Some of these officeblocks are selling at 25% of face value. If that gets worse, the debt holders are heading towards a big hair cut.

If anything the UK is somewhat cushioned from the problems the US have, as the banking regulations were tightened there far more than in the US and some other European countries. The UK banks might get through any crisis in much better shape than the small/mid-sized US banks.

Popular press seems to have given up on the IT crisis today. I hope that means that it's largely over. We've had planes flying overhead today.

Never mind all this 'keep your knickers on' nonsense. I'm up to my budgy smugglers in easy from today! Good luck all.

I have no expertise in the area, but when CPI servers were hit with a security breach that affected about 90 organisations in Mar 2023, they became vulnerable to compensation claims from both the organisations and individuals affected. As far as I know that litigation is ongoing. If CPI were responsible for that data breach, then surely MS or whoever it is in this case will be held responsible for the financial costs to organisations impacted? I'm just trying to be logical, not claiming it's true. But the scale of this problem would be a massive liability for whoever is responsible. A company sinker?

This from an article at the site below suggests airlines will not have to pay compensation? Anyone have any info relevant to that?

https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/breaking-global-it-outages-hit-airlines-airports-and-railways

“As these are extraordinary circumstances, compensation will not be payable for delayed or cancelled flights, but airlines nonetheless have a duty to look after you, including providing meals and accommodation if it becomes necessary. They should also reroute you as quickly as possible, though given the global nature of the problem, this may not be immediately possible.”

Anyone know whether airlines have insurance to cover this type of event?

Sounds like the best of reasons to take a back seat, be happy to have friends.

When I wrote that Stille, I wondered about their 'bot-correct' but I guess you got that one. It's interesting and fun to work them out. Lot's of people sign off, with stuff like IMO IMHO etc, but for me the important thing is time and any time you call something in the future, you're taking a big risk. No-one, absolutely no-one can see what is going to happen. We all use our fundamental/technical/tea leaf magic to try to get a handle on what comes next and none of us know. So it's a guess. My guess is that we will see 530-535 in the near future.