Member Info for Stupmy

Price appears to marking a new short term high. If we can get past 467.35 then 472-473 starts to look likely. Volume is low for the moment so it's not obvious that buyers have conviction.

Thanks, news can change everything, but for me the TA related downside risk is over. I think the low at around 12.45 on April 4th is the bottomand that there is a very good chance of gains from here. As I say though news could turn that on it's head. Volume on this mornings rise is very low, which doesn't yet suggest there's a rush to get on board. In general the UK market is showing weakness, if the larger players perceived that things are going to get worse, then most companies could be sold off.

But why? I noticed that and wondered as one often does, does it mean that there is some good news in the pipes? Just hopefull thinking I'd imagine. Maybe just the rise in spot price of oil.

Not sure if it's been mentioned, but Qube research raised their short by 0.08% to take it above 0.5%. It's the only declared short (i.e. only short over 0.5%) and they breached that level on Jun 28th. Downside risk appears to be increasing.

They won the contract so I'd guess they had to be competitive on price. I suppose that the ATOS issues means companies are looking for stability/safety. I did wonder about the margins, whether they might be better than previously negotiated, but how would we find out?

Whizz Air passenger stats RNS. Looks fine. I'd guess not negativity to read across. Looks as though June passenger numbers 2024 vs 2023 might be topping out though. Full year 2024 vs 2023 still looking good.

It's always darkest in the hours before dawn!

How's that for positive tot?

I have similar thoughts to Boyo. What I would say is that I often have quite a high conviction on where price is likely to go. Here I don't. I see the 270ish area as a potential support from 2016/2017. That might very well hold, but there's little evidence that the tide has turned in favour of bulls for the moment. I have similar figures as boyo for potential downside targets. No strong feeling as to how likely those targets are.

Personally I think the delayed role out of CFC's by a 2nd company is important news. It seems to me that the market also views it that way. I don't know where OCDO stands in the competitive space (other than what I read here from people doing the work), but the market seems to believe that the CFC rollout hiccups are worth playing.

I guess we'll see 462-463 for the next decision point. Volume has not increased, so it's probably just MMs doing their job.

Was easy to drop the price to 448-449 this morning on open with low volume (v low volume). I guess the media coverage of the cancellations from Edin and Glas gave the cue for an attempted sell down. Worth noting that there are currently no declared shorts so (48h out of date) there was not much stock on loan 48h ago (watch that over the next 2 days). The rapid fall (10p or so on trivial volume in the absence of declared short suggests to me that the MM's triggered stops. There was immediate (low volume) buying to bring us back up. The low volume makes me wonder whether we're in the middle of a 'sell in May and come back on St Leger's day' period. There's a malaise and slight negative bent across a variety of stocks at the moment.

SJN1, I saw the 3.50 aswell. Been reading the 6mth results and overall things looked good to me with exceptional costs related to the acquisition being the cause of the drop in statutory profit, therefore a one off (unless I'm being naive). So if there's been no downturn in activity/margins etc, then you'd have to assume that the FY results will look fairly similar to the 6mth results. Perhaps you could even be optimistic with election fever hitting town harder the plague gets the dunny door swinging.

There is that 3.50 trade that SJN1 picked up though and that does not look like a longshot if you look at TA/charting.

Nofear, I have 13.27 or lower as quite likely Still not bought, but depending on exposures elsewhere, would be tempted if that level was reached.

Does ATOS have a direct connection to or impact on CPI? If not, it could be that CPI benefits from the fallout should there be more as they maybe in a position to helpt to take up the slack and keep the ship (UK public sector contract ship) running, presumably with renegotiated contracts? Or am I being naive?

Should give a positive read-across for other sectors of the leisure industry. maybe especially TUI, but also EZJ? Fingers crossed.

I agree, shorts are often wrong.

The behaviour of the shorts here has been very confident though. It worried me enough to cut my holdings by 80% or more and that saved me a lot of money on the drop. Think about the arguments on this board about how Ocado should be viewed as a tech company (moved to a US listing etc) not a grocer. If this is true, then the news that a second partner is stalling it's CFC rollout is quite bad news in the short term at least. I get the argument that the capital spend will drop and that having cleared the exclusivity clause with Kroger it's theoretically good for Ocado, but if Ocado's solutions were making a big difference to margins, the CFC's would be rolled out faster, not slower. Looks shaky to me.

That's interesting, do you think that there could be a link? Even after your post tradeguru I didn't get it. Even took me a moment after Stille spelled it out.

Good work PMC, too risky for me. I still think we'll fall further. Possibly to the 235-240 level now. No-one can see into the future though.

You might regret that. US not yet open, many traders not yet at their desks. Might be a new wave of selling. I'll sit it out. Might even see 240 on this. The short play has been right to now.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/OCDO/update-on-sobeys-partnership/16529437

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What's that all about then?