Member Info for Stupmy

It's all guesswork one way or another Mike, but it's making me a lot of money so I'll stick with it and I would argue my track record on calling prices has been so good that it should be hard to argue that TA has no place. I don't agree that it is not of value here since the Wintershall deal. Really it's saving me from big losses and in my view it will give me some big profits here over time. I think 251-252 is likely. Also, if my evaluation of changes in SP over time for the last 4 years or so holds any water (I'm not sure it does, but it was a sobering excercise to follow up on Craigs comment), then it's hard to see any investment case in HBR (from formation to now). It's had some great trades in it, but investors have been punished. I don't know why, I freely admit it. Same could happen now. Buy the hype sell the news or whatever that quote is.

So chysaor takes PMO, and the SP is around 20p. Over the next 6mths it moves between 20 to 17 to 30 and back to the low 20s. No SH value despite management doing a good job of bringing the companies together and reducing debt. Then in June 2021 there's a 1-20 share consolidation giving us a 400p SP which rapidly fell to around 290 (25% drop for nothing). It was Mar 2022 before the SP rose in a sustainable fashion above the 400p (20p pre-consolidation). Peak was around 530-540 (about a 30% increase in the SP). Then once the two companies were fully functional and debt was under control the SP fell to a range of around 220 to 270 (that's 11-13p in pre-consolidation terms; that's a drop of almost 35-45% in the SP when the HBR was ostensibly a much better company than PMO had been during it's decline. That's an eye opener. With the news of the Wintershall deal the SP rose to around 320 (still 20% below the value of PMO preconsolidation) and now that the deal has concluded, we're sat at 262 or 35% below the value of HBR following it's formation, i.e. 35% lower than the value of PMO when it was about to go bust. These are SP's not market caps. I hope I'm wrong about all of this as if I'm not, then it would not be hard to imagine further SP falls now the excitement of the Wintershall news has been digested. If Craig is right and we get a rerun of 2020 onwards. We could actually see a 30% drop in the SP from the highs of 320. That would get us to 224. TA has potential areas of interest at that kind of level. I hope I'm talking absolute tosh

Craig, just looking back at that period. PMO was around 22p when Chrysaor took it over. The SP dropped to around 17 after that. What happened on Jun 24 2021 to bump the SP up to 400p?

Well as Collingham says, depends how you look at this as to whether you buy, hold or sell. I have to say that if we close below 266 today (that's where we are now) then 251-252 starts to look likely. Makes no sense in the medium to long term, but it's happening.

The NS element to our portfolio might well put off many suitors. Thankyou Hunty and now Reevesy. And maybe to pretend it's a better world, "Thankyou Jack Daniels, old number 7".

Take a look at what the transformational deal has done for HBR SP. A bit like the share buy backs, worth looking at what kind of impact it's had elsewhere as that'll give you an idea of what it might do here. For the moment, I wouldn't expect fireworks!! Still, here's hoping all the same.

I guess the continued weakness in POO is impacting the SP. Still incredible how markets work (not that I understand it at all). If you take the fundamental reasoning approach, it's hard to justify how expanding reserves and diversifying beyond the UK fiscal strangle hold could result in 'zero' accrual with respect to the SP. We are now at that point. The previous range that was very tradeable was 213-270 more or less. We've entered into the top end of the trading range before the Wintershall deal was announced. If anyone can explain that beyond a vague 'global recession' rhetoric (I agree with that as a probability) or POO is dropping (again it goes without saying), I'd love to hear a different rationale. There is now zero priced in for the Wintershall deal. I kind of expected it to happen from a TA perspective, but just can't rationalise the reasons behind it. 267 or so now looks quite likely

441 now looks extremely likely (inevitable?). Rests to see whether it drops further.

Thanks CotWs, makes sense. I hadn't seen him selling, what you say perhaps explains the confusion.

Kign, is that true. That's really interesting and could play into this SP drop. It perked the price up when he was accumulating. HBR SP looks certain now to hit the 270-272 area.

Take a look at HBR, if it drops to 272, then it could be viewed as discounting the whole of the Wintershall deal. SP currently 278.8

If you look back to the period May to Dec 2023, the natural SP range was around 213 to 270. That was before the annoucement of the Wintershall deal. I can't remember when Slim started buying (presumably due to the Zama connection in Mexico). Now that the deal has successfully completed, a major uncertainty has been removed. Additionally, HBR has diversified to reduce the impact of the ridiculous UK fiscal environment. From my point of view it seems to have a high liklihood of the SP moving up at some point. I guess POO and fears of global recession are what's holding this down. Time almost certainly favour the bulls here.

Having said that, from a TA perspective the price is brreaking down from a short term rising tl support from Aug 6th. It's not unlikely that the price will move to 270-272. Below that and it's into it's previous range before anyone knew that the Wintershall deal was in the pipeline. I bought a few around 285 (from memory), but will likely buy more if this fall continues.

LW, don't defer to me! Just because I can't see it, doesn't mean it's not there. There are none so blind as those that can't see!!

We have hit the 502/503 level I mentioned yesterday and there has been some buying so we're back up to 501. Big old drop on composite markets in the US yesterday. I'm going to hold off buying for the moment and see how this pans out.

Like it NF, the crow quote, love that in fact.

But, let's wait and see. I've been around bb's a long time now and I've seen many sure fire winners do the 'unexpected'. For me, it doesn't matter. As long as one of the 'rabbits' I'm chasing starts moving in a predictable manner, I'm rolling in clover!! I still call CPi down to whatever it was I called it down to!!

Robbie Burns had some similar thoughts I believe!! The best laid schemes o' mice an' men / Gang aft a-gley. Or translated into more modern parlence: The best laid plans of mice and men oft go astray.

Same here Kipper, if there's a way to f... it up, I'll find it.

Kipper was that spelling error/slip of the hand or does Mrs K wear the tousers? Mrs S certainly tries mine on a good deal of the time.

I had a view to the downside here a while ago. The SP ran away from me and left me with dust all over my face. However, as is most often the case with probable outcomes, we're back, looking at likely downside. From memory I was hoping for 13-14p as an entry when I got left on the platform. Either my memory is sh ite (which it most certainly is) or something as changed. I'm currently thinking 16.5 or below and possibly 14.2 or below. I'm still watching here. I'd also say that I doubt that the falls here are related specifically to CPI (although they may be). There are lot of markets I'm watching that are coming off to predictable levels. Once they get there, the trick is to figure out if they represent value or whether it's a stepping stone in a wider market move. Good luck all. We all need a bit of that.

Good to you posting Hex, also. you were great on TUI.

Apologies Offmessage. I didn't pick that up.

Thanks Collingham13. It's a good point also about the dividends. What's the current percentage? 7% or so? I started buying back today, but pretty moderate amounts. I'd like to see some evidence it's attracting buyers before getting too many. The divi does give some downside protection. The POO is presumably now the elephant in the room. Should we enter into a worldwide recession, POO will likely continue down as demand falls away. With OPEC increasing supply that seems even more likely. So for the POO to support the SP here, we need to 'hope' for supply disruption, that's most likely and ugly 'hope'. Otherwise, maybe Slim starts buying or funds start loading up.. No-one can see into the future. Best to be cautious and patient though

You need to be careful about that Offmessage. If you believe, that simply because the gap was there, it was likely to fill. You also have to call the price down to 267.5 and then 252, 234.3 and on down to 222/223. Your offhand comment, without having called this drop in advance is a bit off. But according to your 'logic' are you now (in advance this time) calling 222-223 for the HBR SP?

I'm not sure what you mean by 3 mthly chart LW, but on a mthly chart (where each candle is a period of a mth), I'm not seeing a head and shoulders pattern. If you take July 2016 as a high and draw a tl to today then you see a lower high (Sept/Oct/Nov 2020) then a 3rd lower high (Jan 2023. There are lower lows between those lower highs which is a clear down-trend. Fres debuted on the LSE in 2008 around 550p. You could argue there was a support from Aug/Sept 2008 around 400-410 (that's not a strong argument). The only support I can see on the mthly apart from that, is the previous low in Mar 2024 at around 430-435. The company seems to be caught in a geopolitical storm where it's affected by policy and peso exchange rates and now a fall Silv/Gold price.

On a weekly chart it's clear to me that we're in a new mini bear trend from May this year (after a rise from 435 or so to a high of 650 or so. I don't see any evidence the drop is over and I think there is a strong likelihood of us seeing 470 or lower. If you want a rose-tinted view, you could argue that 500-502 might act as support (certainly a point to watch should the drop continue). If you look only at indicators and not price, you could convince yourself that we might get a bounce, but I don't find that convincing myself.