Member Info for Stupmy

I did LW, very much so. A heavy bergerac.

What the price does now is going to be really interesting. We hit 405-406. That's more or less the bottom of the trading range since June this year. Volume is still low, but there was a little buying at that level. It's astonishing that it can come off from 587ish to 405 since August. A close below 403-404 would be a worry.

I'd had a glass of wine when I posted that, maybe a bit harsh so sorry for that, but I do think that many are ignoring the fact that the SP is falling. You really shouldn't, someone said something along the lines of 'and that's the most important thing' with respect to supposed buys vs sells and the bottom being in. The most important thing to my mind is that the SP is still falling. I'm long cautiously from somewhere around 430-440 (from memory), but I view a significant risk to the downside, so I'm keeping it calm on my positions here.

I have that at 503 on a 2h chart Max. Might very well touch that level, but there's no certainty.

To infinity and beyond, let's ride this into tomorrow! What is wrong with you people? How can you ignore the fact that the SP is falling as you're all rubbing each others backs and talking the bull case? If I wasn't watching it, I'd not believe it was possible. I still call a test of 405 and quite possibly down to 350.

It's about risk mango. And also about flow. Things change frequently and it's important to put that change into a larger framework. It's not inconsistant to take short term trades in the opposite direction to what I view as downside risk. But I tailor trade size based on that. It's very important to understand that no-one can see into the future and I don't pretend to. I try to work out what is more or less likely. It's making me money and every year the amount increases as I compound my gains. I hope it continues, but of course what works for a period, often changes over time and needs to be adpated/changed. So far, I'm staying ahead.

Looks likely to go to 351 or lower to me

Bulk, I've filtered. There's no point in bad manners and no point in arguing with fools.

What do you think Morgan Stanley's main driver is? Looking after SH's? Bosting the SP? Or would it be making a profit for itself. I would be careful believing that this is a good thing for the SP in the short term. They are not in it to protect our interests. Really be carefull how you interpret this news.

Sounds like a full schedule. Congrats on the pending new arrival and also the wedding. Hope all goes well and you have a lot of fun.

Stille, I get really tired of the nonsense. I try to share my views, my track record is there as history on this site. You just have to care enough to look. But mostly people just insult without doing any groundwork. As I say, I'm tired of trying to share. Think highly of you though Stille and very happy to talk in detail offline if that interests you.

Listen useless, if you can't do it, then learn how to improve. There is absolutely no value in insulting others for succeeding.

Useless, I just took a quick look at your posts. They look typical of a losing investor/trader. I suspect you're losing lots and that you'll lose more as you get more into it. I have no respect at all for your views.

I know what I think should be happening with the SP, but unfortunately the SP action is telling us what is most likely to happen and that's a fall to 258 or lower and probably 252 or lower. Patience is likely to pay off on this I believe.

Useless, I can't really post detail anymore as I get too much criticism. Then when I don't post detail, I get criticism. I'm happy with what I'm doing and have no need to lie or embellish. I guess you're uncomfortable with what you're doing. I'll get out when I feel it's right, it looks like I'll be out at a profit, that'll do me.

I've been doing my best to see it your way helloDave, but was never convinced. Looks to me that the price is heading down again and will most likely test the 405 area. That's not to say it won't go lower. I'm happy to have stayed cautious here.

I think BoA has some exposure to the failing commercial real estate market in the US, not sure of the detail (might be indirect exposure), but apparently it's risks are increasing and it's working hard to maintain it's financial stability. I don't know the detail of the HBR interest (someone posted about it being a complex swaps situation), but if they are deleveraging their stock positions here and maybe elsewhere, it could re related to the risks I refer to above. If that were the case, it's probably nothing to do with HBR, it's just that time is against them and they need to shore up their risk profile.

I could not agree more and my interest is in the UK market and what I view as undervalued stocks. I think what happened previously (I've read about that also) will happen again. Money is (in my view) likely to rotate out of the big 7 and tech in general, back into the bread and butter inustries and I think the UK will benefit from such a rotation. Timing is important as your story suggests, you can be wrong for a while and lose money (or your job), but if over time it turns out that you were well prepared, you're likely to gain a lot. As I say, completely agree with your comments. Before such a rotation of funds though, we could see significant further chop and if there is a 'surprise' event that triggers a general sell off, we'd see further falls in SP's across the board. Consider where most of the money is wrt to stocks: it's in trackers. When that unwinds, everything has to come down. No matter how much you believe HBR or other stocks are currently undervalued, they could go a lot lower. For me it's more important than ever to consider risk. I think there is much more chance of an upside surprise here than a downside one, but I'm playing it cautiously.

Watch this space mango. We'll probably see 423 or lower at some point. You're correct, I hold shares and would currently like to see the upside targets play out. Is there something wrong with that? I won't be holding for 7.50 in all likelihood, but would be looking to buy back if the SP fell back to 423 or lower. Might seem unlikely to you now, but I see it as a distinct possibility.

I don't know the reasons, I don't understand whether it's possible for the price to be manipulated to maintain the price low (I suspect it would be risky and illegal), I don't understand much in fact, but what I'm seeing with respect to the price action/TA/charts whatever you want to call it, is that the price still seems likely to come off. I think 258 or lower is quite likely now and probably we'll see 252 or lower. For interest I'm long but have been quite restrained per my views on price action.

I think 514 is quite likely now and if that breaks then we could well see 539 or higher. All to play for.