Member Info for Stupmy

HBR sp is trading at the equivalent of 13 to 14p in old money (prior to the consolidation of 20 to 1). That seems to discount the bulk of the Wintershall deal. That deal supposedly doubled production and added substantial reserves plus geopolitical diversification. If it doubled production, then to get shot of the UK assets HBR would be reducing current production by roughly 40-50% (guess work; some of you will have much better precision). How do you value that? Presumably the UK fiscal environment reduces the value of UK production and assets, but that should already be in the SP. I'm just wondering how much leverage ENQ is likely to have to get a really good deal on some of these assets. HBR will want a high price to give them leverage elsewhere (mexico?). How this unfolds looks fascinating to me. Another jump in HBR SP this morning so the idea is clearly being viewed positive by investors (probably punters at this point).

That's been previously posted and to me it makes sense that it's behind the weakness here. If there is institutional selling it could also be part of that decision making process. As LW says if that's true it should become obvious fairly soon

I'd imagine AB has been discussing this with HBR for a long time. But, AB has a big upper hand. That article was compelling, no-one wants to invest in the UK O&G industry. So, only a few players could benefit (one?). Does that not leave us in a very strong negotiating position? I suspect our time in the sunshine is coming soon.

With the tax credits going in our favour (Stevo I defer) it would seem like a logical consolidation of NS assets to pass them to ENQ (at a reasonable price). Plays to our strengths here and gets HBR out of the UK shi t sh ow.

I'm struggling a lot with the valuation here, bearing in mind the historical quality of management. But I've stuck with what the SP is doing and what it's likely to do. There is still downside risk for the near term as this news will likely dissipate and the sell the news crew may do so. Over time though, it's hard to imagine that this will not pay off well.

Source of info (c/o Egremont HBR bb)

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/harbour-energy-joins-north-sea-producers-retreat-ahead-tax-hikes-2024-10-23/

KG, keep watching that SP!! My random numbers, silly thoughts.

That was me! That was my add.

Oh, and thanks to JBco for that link. Taken from his/her post on HBR

Https://x.com/baroninvestment/status/1849106692933365888

With the tax credits the HBR assets might work ok for ENQ. HBR SP now rising on this news.

Might be. Just bought a few more. Sounds like sense to me.

Seems to have lit up the SP. Makes some sense. Now I'm not sure whether ENQ should buy those assets or not. That'll be an interesting discussion bearing in mind AB stated that he's looking to buy assets within 6mths and there are less than 2 mths left.

Yes you did and that's a great pay off for your work. Congrats.

Also, just look at the way punters respond to broker notes. If it co-incides with their view, they most often thinks it's accurate, if it diverges from their view it's nonsense. If you sit at a poker table and play the cards then if you have an edge it's a small one. If you play the cards and the people (human beahviour) then you've a good chance of taking money home.

I think that, in the absence of positive news or a big rise in POO, you're going to get another top up opportunity at 258 and quite probably 252 or below. No idea why, perhaps the increasing liklihood of global recession impacting POO. No idea, but I remain very cautious.

At least the discussion on this board has come to life a bit. Not long ago,it was days between posts. I guess that means that interest is increasing here.

KG, you're not listening, you're checking, you're not paying attention. Watch the SP. Go back and look at my posts, cross check the SP vs the specific numbers I suggested. We will never agree. Let's leave it at that.

Thankyou poker, my point exactly that data is sh i te and you should never ignore the SP.

KISS.

I'll assume, generously that you're being deliberately obtuse rather than having no idea what you're doing.

Let's start simple. No-one can see into the future. That means I cannot tell you with any certainty where the SP will go. I can however make educated guesses based on rational thinking as to what the most likely next SP movements will be. Going back to 'no-one can see into the future', it means I accept that my judgement might very well not co-incide with future prive movements. Since I believe that the SP in YOU will revisit current levels or higher in the relatively near future, then I can carefully start buying. I don't buy randomly, I look for areas that might have a higher likelihood of representing value. So, I have not bought between 430-438 (from memory) and again yesterday around 390. I believe there is a high liklihood we will see 350. For that reason, I have managed my risk and my positions are nowhere near what they might be if the price continues to fall.

You say, "these boards can do without the likes of you and hellodave". In my view, bearing in mind the random fashion in which people throw their money at stocks, these bb have a very great need for people who work hard to try to identify value and likely SP movements. KG, I assume you're a losing trader, judging from your comments it's the only possibility.

As regards "you still haven't told us what you are basing your understanding on", when I have tried to explain in the past, I've been trolled, when I don't explain, I'm trolled. Watch the video link that I posted previously. It's fascinating and explains why most people lose their money even if they are educated and bright. These bb's have some genuinely bright people on all sides of the spectrum from fundamentals, factors to TA and Charts. They have rational thinkers unlikely to fall into the obvious traps. hellodave is not obviously amongst them. He appear to see only the upside. Most on these bb know nothing or almost nothing and when they get a little scared by information they cannot process effectively (i.e. it doesn't match their confirmation biases) they lash out.

KG "There's nothing from technical analysis that suggest that." there's a big difference between there being nothing and you not understanding what there is. Watch the price, see how close hellodave has been up until now, watch the price. Hellodave has not even modified his confidence, despite having been wrong time after time. He doesn't appear to incorporate that SP into his analysis. In my view, the SP is the most important thing to consider. It is still falling, so all the analysis of so-called buys and sells in the world is not going to trump what the SP is doing. Maybe the 'buy' vs 'sell' data is not quite what you think it is. If the buying was stronger than the selling, the SP would rise. KISS.