Member Info for Stupmy

Hellodave, you posted this in a series of comments stating as almost fact that all is good here. "Still looking great, clearing out the weak hand and legacy holders, and bringing in the new long term powers!"

I'm not sure what kind of methodology you're using for your analysis, but do you think it's time to incorporate the 'fact' the SP is falling into your analysis? These bb's sometimes feel like a microcosm of the bed bath and beyond communities (check out this link for the most interesting little video you're like to see this month)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5Bd6YxifCo

You should be really careful about only seeing positive things, because you're belief is that this is going to the moon. It is still favouring the downside and 350 is still very likely. I suspect in fact that we could see 320-325 judging from current SP action. Please, try to incorporate what's actually happening into your views, be less certain; it will save you money.

I wouldn't get too excited, the fall might not be over yet. Good volume for a couple of hours is not evidence that the trend has changed.

Volume up in the last couple of hours and some buying pressure. Is it enough to prevent the drop to 350 area? Not sure, but I added at around 390.

Anyone know how significant a competitor Bera.ai is for YOU? Saint? Anyone?

Funny, you're saying loud and clear that 'because it's happened that way consistently before' it's likely to happen again (which I agree with), but with charts which often look for similar patterns of behaviour as in previous situations, you think they're nonsense. Can you see a disconnect in your logic?

There must be something moving up Multiplier. Most of what I watch has come down, but overall the FTSE seems stable, something must have risen I guess.

I'm looking at this chart LW, I was hoping it represented a bottoming pattern, but on the rhs you can clearly see the price is pushing below previous lows. To my mind, that means the sellers are in charge and it's increasingly likely the price will fall to 350ish or lower. There don't seem to have been any stops triggered so far, but it's entirely possible that if the price drops a few more pence, that might happen. If it did, it could accelerate any bearish move.

https://screenrec.com/share/vVPD6ogk4y

Still looking weak and still looks as though the sellers have the upper hand to me. Not sure about all this 'suppressing the price' business. Not sure you need to evoke conspiracy theory, just selling is outweighing buying. Let's see where it finishes, but still looks shaky to me.

SP at 404.4 at the moment. I'd prefer to see that stay above 405 as far as today's closin price is concerned. A close below 403 would increase the chances of a fall to the 350 level or below. As previously stated I'm long, but not over exposed for the moment.

I'm simply watching what's happening to the SP, not linking it to macro events. Looks to be favouring sellers.

This'll have the trolls jumping about and shouting at me. I believe that, in the absence of positive news, the SP has a high liklihood of falling back to 503 or lower.

Liked the article, not read it before. Very positive.

I was starting to get optimistic that we'd avoid dropping further this morning. The last few minutes price action has evaporated my optimism. We could well test the 405 level again. I guess it is the weekend and a time many rationalise to reduce risk.

Swazers has jinxed it.

Is the profit forecast not 41-44 million and down from 48million in 2023 (that's 10-20%)?

What's it's Moat? Was wondering about this this morning.

You don't know when to give up hyd!! I'm laughing harder now than before!! I need some wine. It's late.

Exactly bonker, I can't be bothered to check his previous posts, but am assuming he's worthy of a fast filter. What a tw a t

You're behind on your research hyd

Thanks NSS, I still feel the same way, but have do hold 100,000 shares at around 268. I'm happy to bump that up 4 or 5 times. My difficulty is that I believe that it's fundamentally undervalued and that a sharp rise in POO would have the SP rising also, which I have to push up against what my understanding of the price action is telling me. That is specifically that 258 or lower still looks quite likely and 252 or lower would not surprise me. Obviously the lower the entry (buy low-sell high), then assuming I'm right that it will rerate, the bigger the profit I'm likely to take. I keep redrawing a short term trendline from Sept 16th this year and that tl only holds for about a day. The close today is on my latest version of that line. Typically when it breaks, the price is dropping 2-3p. I think if we see the SP drop below 264 then 258 is very, very likely. Brent is holding at 74 or so, from what I'm seeing, a fall in POO below that would quickly bring off the HBR SP. On the flip side if Israel targeted Iran's oil production the POO would presumably move up a lot (100 dollars a barrel?) and HBR SH's would get a pretty rapid payback. The other thing that attracts me particularly here is the dividend. Even if I end up trapped with a falling SP (I don't think it's likely, but it might happen), I'll be getting 7-8% per year. Not too shabby, but I do a lot better than that normally by trading.