Member Info for Stupmy

"If someone had popped off Hitler early 10's of millions would have been saved."

In a parallell universe Celine, see this ad. Could be viewed as bad taste and was never authorised for release. I imagine the makers were not Mercedes themselves. Sadly it didn't happen. These intelligent driving features do look useful for the future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=trcLKX1Yw34

PYUECK, in my heart of hearts I can't help agreeing, but there's always that dream-like, rose-tinted hope that things can normalise and if it could be by a legal challenge then why not. I posted simply for interest.

Popular press running a story of a couple making a legal challenge to the changes to winter fuel payments. Not sure if it has any spill-over relevance to the EPL, but might be worth following.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13895501/Pensioner-court-bid-prove-Keir-Starmers-winter-fuel-payment-cut-unlawful.html

Entirely possible that they were forced to sell. To be honest though the CIO sold a small amount. If he's that tight for cash he needs some money management lessons. For the CFO it was substantial. Entirely possible there are good reasons for the sale, but also possible that the sales were not forced and the directors don't have a positive view on the immediate future for the SP. Also worth saying that typically, directors don't have a great record for timing their buys/sells so even if they have a negative view for the immediate future, it's not necessarily something to follow. Reading tea-leaves is extremely difficult, I view the sales are potentially a negative. I might be wrong.

I agree Dartron on the possible jitters before the budget. The conservatives already changed the tilt of the playing field vis a vis investors. Would not be surprised to see Labour follow up on that.

Check this out from around 3 min 30. Jim Rickards discussing diversification in general, but touches on green energy and then O&G. Not in depth, but reassuring to we who continue to 'hold the faith'. Confirmation bias? Maybe, but it echos the views often expressed on this board.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ki4hJsqw86Y

No point being anything else Hb. Once you start lying, you have to start asking yourself some searching questions. The fact remains however that McIntosh sold half a million worth of shares. If he felt there was an iminent reason for a change in SP, he most likely wouldn't have. Having said that I have no specific knowledge of his past sales. Also noteworthy that the SP has fallen around 100p since the sales.

The rapid volatility I'm assuming is related to the tight float/low depth in the market. I don't agree that you can't take a view on dirrection though and am being very careful. You mention Buffet and I assume you're aware he's moved to higher cash levels before a good few corrections and has currently moved to his biggest ever % cash position (despite 'never timing the market'. And my ar se is a banjo he doesnt!). Reading between the lines is worth doing I'd say. Like Saintge I think that there will be value here. Just not sure it's now. That might end up being nothing to do with YOU specifically.

I welcome that correction Saintge and didn't mean to be misleading. At the moment I'm trying to understand mostly price. You have a much stronger fundamental understanding. What you've written in response is exactly what bb's are for, discussion and learning.

Regardless of that the SP took a negative turn and to my mind 441-442 remains very, very likely. Perhaps lower.

I also agree that todays price is not the only thing that is worth considering, the future performance of the company is important. That's a key difference between us though as I'm calling it lower and looking for a lower entry, you're calling it higher. We share the belief that the company's value in the future is important, but we see the immediate future differently.

I'm on the verge of looking more closely at fundamentals as there is a clear downside risk to 345-350. I'll watch closely what the price does after 441.

Experts take a look at this vid and maybe compare OCDO to Walmart and Amazon. High levels of re-investment and early years low 'profitability' (depending upon accounting standards.

From 23 mins or so they start to discuss that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yb4P-dFCz84

But I don't see new news. I don't think the sells by McIntosh and Morris in August are helping the SP. From time to time it looks as if the SP will turn, but I can't help wondering if we'll see it drop to 449 (previous low) and below today or this week. I'm still just sat on my hands, but watching closely. Why would the CFO and CIO dump significant numbers of shares in August? It clearly doesn't smell of confidence of a rise in the SP in the near term.

He or she is no competition to me. I have to just do what works and take other peoples money away from them. I guess he/she is doing the same thing. I doubt very much in a world as big as we have that we will ever compete.

Thanks Stille, rare anyone says anything generous. I think a bit differently to most, but don't know much. For some reason thinking a little differently though is profitable for the moment. Might not be tomorrow and I'll figure out a new way to think!. If you look at folks like Poker and Bonker, they have in depth knowledge (academic perhaps) of the financial world (probably because they worked in that environment). I don't have any of that low level detail, but I'm happy talking to those two. I just learned to work around the emotions on bb's and KIS. Fella in the UK (Lawrence from Leicester) helped me a lot. To be fair though I couldn't make his systems work for me. Talking to bright people is definitely a good thing. Hard to tell on bb's who the good folks are and who the fools are. I just filter anyone I'm doubtful about. Not you!

Stille, CS had smellt 'off' for a long time before they were rescued. Poker knows his stuff on this type of info.

Yeahhh, you have to bring something to the table if you expect to take something off the table. Love your post PokerC

Boyo, do you think that the pattern from April this year (including yesterdays spike) to the present time is a potential large diamond bottom formation? If it is and the SP breaks above it, it would suggest a significant move to the upside.

Yes, yesterdays reaction was fast and quickly reversed. Possibly short covering or PI over-exuberance. Technically I can see obvious down-side risk to around 300 or lower. But, simultaneously, as you've been highlighting, there was a breach of that descending tl from Jul 2023 to the current time. Price is also sitting just above the area where most volume has been found over the last 6mths, so there's potentially a lot of interest in the range 339 to 365 or so.

Although yesterdays results were encouraging, it's still not a profit. There are lots of big players moving from equities to cash with the idea that we might be about to see a stock market correction. I haven't entered yet, and have moved to about 40% cash. But I'm keeping a close eye on this simply due to it's volatile movements giving good potential short term trades.

I was thinking 352 or lower. I'm not exposed, but watch this closely and am tempted again.

Looks to be some buying towards close here. Often a good sign for the following day.

Well no-one can see into the future and it seems to have entered an area where it might hold value, but I can't help thinking that the downside is not over. I'm not just thinking about YOU in particular, I'm wondering about the macro-economic backdrop and escalating geopolitical tensions. I've still not entered here. I want to see 441-442 or lower. I've had a good year and don't want to finish it badly due to FOMO

O'Leary again! Wow. That man is a machine.

Total declared shorts are 1.14%. That's not high. Whether the tightly held nature and low day to day liquidity means those shorts have a disproportionate effect I don't know. I also don't know anything about undeclared shorts (below 0.5%).

I don't disagree that there is a risk of seeing 300's though. I'd rather wait to see what happens around 441/442 before over comitting on that.