Member Info for Stupmy

Let's hope it holds and that the reversion doesn't take too long!

Don't buy 'Rocket Fuel for Traders'!

It's an easy read, with a lot of common sense that might help to form some good habits going forward. One of the first books I read and I still remember it. But there is so much information on the net and freely available. Some won't work with your way of thinking some will, you just have to start using it (perhaps not betting on it) to start to find out what fits you. I really don't think that one size fits all. But Elder's book is really a good common sense start.

So if that holds and we get some mean reversion, it's very likely POO will rise (whether Gold falls or not)? Is that you're take too mancunian?

Try Elder's book as a starting point : You'll probably find a free download of the book if you search. From my own point of view, you just have to put the hours in and search for resources. There's literally tons out there, all free and you have to start testing it out until you find something the works with your personal way of thinking. Price first, is a good way of thinking about things so looking at price action and chart patterns is also a good starting point. Indicators are largely drawn from price and volume so are 'lagging' with respect to price. So, although they are less important, they can be very useful to help to slow you down on your entries. FOMO etc can get you rushing in too early. Some indicators can help you to be more patient.

Come into my trading room

Book by Alexander Elder

Yes it does, 2.1% have been borrowed and we make the assumption they have been borrowed for the purposes of short selling. 2.1% will underestimate the number of shorts though as the tracking sites normally only report on declarable (above 0.5% short positions). There could be other short positions below the 0.5% threshold.

Nice pop up on increased volume, but I'm wondering if that is 'FOMO' money (mine) frightened to miss the bus.

Barchid, I think sometimes you just have to run with what's in front of you. I guess we'll never know for the reasons. You could imagine that as someone else suggested, 'the market' is using the idea/perception of complications in the integration phase of the business to give the impression of weakness. I think it's most likely a mistake to believe the market knows a lot more than we do in this (and many other cases). Often people truly believe there are strong reasons (leaked info to the 'big boys' etc) for changes in SP. I think very often that's over interpretation by PI's . I think we'll see 251-252 or below. So I'm trying to be patient.

No-one can see into the future however, so it's all guess work.

Thanks om, maybe the view that a recession is approaches?

They had it as 360 in March before the Wintershall deal completed, now 320 after completion. Do they give any rationale? I didn't find the revision down to 320?

That's more like it Offmessage, that makes more sense to me than O'Leary's comments.

Surely that would put a wind behind EZJ, not convinced that is the reason for the fall here. TUI also off from todays fresh high

I don't think it matters for the moment. I'm just making the observation of what is actually happening, not what the company is worth. I'm assuming that particulary after the Wintershall deal, HBR's move to diversify beyond the UK fiscal regime should make it more attractive compared to ENQ (which has the tax credits). But, despite many people suggesting that HBR (ENQ also) is deeply undervalued, it's SP has not increased since Chrysaor took PMO out in a reversce t/o, paid down the debt and effectively created an integrated company with higher levels of production, higher reserves and a good dividend. I'm just saying that the history of PMO/HBR and now HBR Wintershall deal has not been a good investing opportunity. The divi has compensate for some of the loss of value on the shares. I'm in favour of a divi at ENQ and it looks likely to reward SH's better than a sharebuyback. But I'm not assuming the SP will rise substantially simply because a divi is introduced. I'm simply looking at what has and is happening rather that what might or should happen in an ideal world. The HBR story is an eye opener and shouldn't be ignored.

Thanks guys, important info.

HBR has a 7-8% divi at it's current price of 259. The SP is dropping. I get the principal that the divi might support the SP KO, but it's not the reality. It would however compensat investors for an extended period of opportunity cost and at least reduce paper losses. The history of HBR and SH returns since it's inception doesn't look pretty. It shows some great potential trades, erosion of SP and payment of divis (the only big positive for many). ENQ is not paying a divi so we don't have that positive.

I'd have guessed female, not that it matters. But you have to have something to do while waiting for something to happen. So guessing about other posters is one way to go.

Thanks SD. Waiting for Strike to get back to us.

So Strike's info is not correct? I think it's an important point. Big sellers can depress a market for quite a period.

To give some meat to Strike123's post. Here's EIG position 2022

https://eigpartners.com/eig-completes-distribution-of-harbour-energy-plc-shares/

2023

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230206005667/en/EIG-Enters-Into-Harbour-Energy-plc-Trading-Plan

Can't see anything more recent. Could you post some links Strike123? What you're saying could nicely explain the falling SP here.

SP breaking up again. I have around 497 as potentially significant. If it can close above that I'd have thought that 525 or higher starts to look quite likely.