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Further to my post about CTV fraud investigations. My 2nd point, as to why the ad tech bubble will burst...
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud within ad tech ecosystem.
In 2017, following the Methbot fraud discovery, P&G demanded transparency within ad tech, the consequences led to several industry challenges and advertisers pulling back spending.
Dan Slivjanovski has many years of working with ad tech and was ex-Chief Operating Officer of rthm, is now merged with trmr.
Doubleverify have discovered more CTV fraud. This is likely to call for another round of calls for transparency and possible pulling back of CTV spending by advertisers, as it did in 2017.
CTV Fraud Scheme Costs up to $50m
"Discovered by digital media measurement and verification platform DoubleVerify, the scheme – named ParrotTerra – is estimated to have cost advertisers between USD $30m (£21.7m) and USD $50m (£36.1m) in stolen spend."
"The fallout from ParrotTerra will no doubt amplify calls for greater transparency across the CTV supply chain, and more comprehensive solutions for tackling bad actors."
https://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2021/02/10/bloomberg-media-aspires-for-100m-from-consumer-subs-ctv-fraud-scheme-costs-up-to-50m/
Tribalhound
"where your ISA provider permits"
Agree, that's an important point. Not all providers let you trade foreign shares. Years ago, I used to be with Barclays and they wouldn't allow me to hold US shares within my ISA. I don't know if they have changed their rules now.
Best check with your provider.
Backing up my point about an ad tech bubble. - previously quoted, industry challenges - privacy
Author's opinion of Ad tech bubble.
"For some time now, I have stated that I believe the second dot-com bubble would be the paid ads bubble. Prior to this change, I attributed things like ad fraud, ad blockers, lack of control over ad placement and messy attribution for why this bubble would burst. When you combine all those reasons with Apple’s announcement and the deprecation of third-party cookies, which will make ad targeting more difficult, I believe this will be the beginning of the burst of the paid ads bubble."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2021/02/10/what-apples-privacy-changes-mean-for-the-tech-industry/?sh=6e4c64ad6944
There's still nearly 8m shares to be dumped though.
It's usual for ex-employees to redeem their options, so expect to see the options dumped at some point.
The sp was around these levels last May, so the question is will Gill Leates look to seize the opportunity or hold?
"The 7,975,816 share options retained by Gill Leates are exercisable at 0.3 pence per share at any time between 3 December 2020 and 3 December 2022."
https://www.investegate.co.uk/react-group-plc/rns/board-changes/202012040944045958H/
If you hold US shares then you'd have to fill in a W8-Ben form but that's a simple to complete.
ISA's are tax free.
SNN,
If you this Motley Fool article regarding their concern:
"If you go and read any of Magnite's press releases when they report earnings, there's a little note there that I think is it's important for investors to know and understand.
That note says, "The year-over-year comparisons, as reported, reflect Rubicon Project only results from the prior year quarter. When these comparisons are referred to as pro forma, that Telaria results in the prior year period were added in order to provide additional detailed insights to the business performance."
Now, think about that, what they said was their revenue was up 69% year-over-year, just Rubicon, up 20% pro forma, Rubicon plus Telaria's results. The way that they're doing that gives me a little bit of concern. Again, I'm a Magnite shareholder, but I think investors should be watching because they're going to roll off of that Telaria acquisition here probably in another quarter.
Then we're not going to get those two numbers anymore, we're just going to get one number. That one number is not going to be the 69% number, it's going to be the lower number. I think if investors don't understand that that's the case, there is the potential that we could see the stock fall. I wanted to throw that out there."
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/02/10/magnite-builds-on-its-connected-tv-momentum-with-a/
Tricky,
"You bang on about the challenges facing the ad-tech sector whilst praising the healthcare private sector firms"
I've posted company/sector newsflow and news articles, very often with links to back up my opinions. I do a lot of research on company/sector news and provide the information, it's up to readers to form their own opinion, it's their money after all. If you want then you are welcome to counter them.
Radium,
Do some research, you're making yourself look a fool.
"And then you have the Labour opposition which is bent on reducing the role of privatisation in the NHS."
Really??? They were in power for 13 yrs and the role of private providers wasn't reduced.
In fact under Labour they pushed through Private Finance Initiative which cost tax-payers billions of pounds.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/sep/30/labourconference.labour3
Labour created the NHS over 70yrs ago. Private providers have always been an integral part of the NHS
Labour also created NHS Direct, the fore-runner to NHS 111. All the Tories did was to rename it and build on the initiative.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Direct
"stt knew all this already and ‘added a few’ because the reforms were, ‘great for Totally Plc’"
I've backed my conviction and will buy more as and when possible and will hold.
How about you stating on trmr thread that you are loading up at 600p+++ and will hold?
My 2nd point, as to why the ad tech bubble will burst...
Dan Slivjanovski has many years of working with ad tech and was ex-Chief Operating Officer of rthm, is now merged with trmr. His opinion..
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud within ad tech ecosystem.
The ex-Chief Operations Officer Dan Slivjanovski, ex COO/CMO of rthm talks about fraud and transparency within the ad tech ecosystem...
"Trust in an Ad-Supported Internet is Eroding.
Fake news, digital ad fraud, and data privacy are pressing issues threatening the trust and confidence in an ad-supported internet. While advertisers continue to demand transparency of their partners downstream, even going so far as to hold budgets hostage, consumers who have enjoyed positive, emotional connections with their brands online‚¬are at risk of turning off due to privacy concerns. Stakeholders will expect even greater clarity and accountability in the quality of the online platforms and content that they invest behind"
Fraud Follows the Money
"Third-party verification has successfully reduced desktop digital ad fraud to low single digits.
Now, with mobile apps commanding more than 50% of a consumer's time online, advertiser demand for quality mobile inventory has swelled. In return, we've seen an 800% increase of in-app ad fraud. Expect that in-app ad fraud will continue to accelerate as fraud follows the money. Also, expect emerging premium, high-growth media types such as connected TV (CTV) to draw the attention of fraudsters‚ in line with sharp increases in budget allocation."
http://www.adotas.com/2019/01/2019-ad-predictions-cmo-doubleverify/
*******************************************************************************
I think there is an ad tech bubble and it will burst soon. I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
1) investigations into Ad tech model, gdpr/ccpa/rtb
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies
Any major newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.
Radium
"Stts pain is my gain"
Great if I'm helping!! Are you loading up at 600p+++ and holding for the long term or hoping others are?
Load up, sit back and wait for those gains you are expecting to come in.
What's wrong with just taking a position and waiting to see how it plays out? Why try so hard to persuade others into buying off the back of dubious speculation? Is it just so you can get out on an artificial spike and onto the next big thing?
I think there is an ad tech bubble and it will burst soon. I'm keeping an eye it and the following:
1) investigations into Ad tech model, gdpr/ccpa/rtb
2) investigations into Ad tech fraud
3) court cases affecting ad tech companies
Any major newsflow and the ad tech bubble can burst.
**************************************************************
1) investigations into Ad tech model, gdpr/ccpa/rtb
Data privacy legislations in 2020 and trends to watch out for in 2021
https://www.geospatialworld.net/blogs/data-privacy-legislations-in-2020-and-trends-to-watch-out-for-in-2021/
Radium
"I get the feeling that the handle is just starting to form on the hockey stick."
Are you backing that and loading up at 600p+++ and then holding until the sp reaches the top of that hockey stick?
Micro,
oops..
Yes, not understanding that insourcing operate in all 4 UK nations AND IRELAND.
Read the company/sector newsflow. The changes were expected and therefore, are great for TLY.
;-)
On TLY, the news is positive and expected.
It is great for TLY.
In Long,
"Keep posting your good finds"
Thanks, I post company/sector/economic newsflow.
I've done the same on the other shares, I have no problem anybody reading my posts.
What's interesting is posters on trmr, they want everyone to ignore my posts(which contain the company/sector newsflow), yet they won't do so themselves!!! they won't load up themselves and hold, yet they want others to!!!
I think it's because rthm(now merged with trmr) were at £28 in Jan 2014 and current trmr sp is around 600p!!
In Long,
they don't bother me. They are making fools of themselves, so let them.
The news was expected and is great for TLY. If the sp falls, I will load up.
If the bear points can be countered, it makes the bull case stronger.
Likewise, if the bull case can be countered, it makes the bear case stronger.
I've countered all the bear points and so the bull case is even stronger.
They
100k, £570k sell just gone through..
Sizmek filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, owing millions to various ad tech companies, including Rthm (and Unruly)
This was Apr 2019.
https://digiday.com/media/tip-ice-berg-sizmek-saga-spells-trouble-ad-tech/
The SAME year, fy2019, Trmr's debt provision increase 11 fold!!
Therefore, I believe the debt provision increased 11 fold on the back of Sizmek filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Back to trmr..
So why the huge 11 fold increase in debt provision?
The ad tech model works by DSPs/SSPs, partnering with each other. It is usually the case that the company would pay their 'supplier' (other ad tech companies) around 60 days but receive their cut from 'customers' (other ad tech companies) around 90 days. That gap("inventory payments") has to be covered from their own cash or they setup credit facilities.
Have a look at trmr's last TU, net revenues ex-'media cost' was $179-181m whereas headline rate was $404-$408m.
"Tremor now expects to report revenues of $404-408 million, net revenues of $179-181 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $58-60 million for the year ended 31 December 2020."
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/TRMR-Trading-Statement-080121.pdf
Ad Tech companies have implemented credit facilities in the past.
The Trade Desk and MediaMath, both huge companies within the AdTech Ecosystem had to raise money because of the way inventory payments work.
"Brands and agencies often pay DSPs on 90-day or even 120-day cycles. But DSPs pay SSPs between 30 to 60 days."
"DSPs shoulder this burden directly because they constantly owe money to inventory suppliers. The Trade Desk took out a $200 million loan in 2017 to preserve liquidity while it bridges inventory payments. MediaMath has raised more than $600 million, including $225 million last year."
https://adexchanger.com/online-advertising/sizmeks-bankruptcy-is-changing-how-the-supply-side-manages-dsp-debts/
Rthm(now merged with trmr) setup a revolving credit facility in Nov 2017, just months after announcing $75m cash. Again, just after the previous US Presidential Election in 2016.
Gamestop sp kept rising, didn't it!!!
Rthm(blnx), now trmr, eq sp was £28 in Jan 2014 before sp fell. It was around 580p just 4 yrs ago after the previous US Elections, before it fell to around 100p.
TAP(now trmr) sp was around 500p, 3 yrs ago before the fell.
It says a lot when PIs want others to buy suggesting huge returns ahead but commit to do so themselves.