Member Info for Straycat

I'm trading this stock on the periphery of my investment right now...you guys can talk geopolitics all you want but we're here to make money and right now there's easy pickings...

I need to re-state my commitment to GKP as a future business model which I believe in.

However, we're all here to make money.

Sooner and later.

Don't you just love this share?

And that's it.

TF,

Note your interest in Lloyds.

As I am.

But what the hell are doing over here in crazy world?

As I am.

Should we post a mutual suicide note?....though it's got to be said Lloyds has been kind to me.

And so has GKP.

SC.

'Cheap for good reason.'

My 20 is already 22.

Tragedy is I bottled 100...what a w*nker.

Story of my life.

In the end it's just money and belief drives share prices.

Oops, wrong currency.

Point being GKP is massively undervalued right now and will remain so until the ITP is re-opened.

And that will happen albeit under different trading terms.

'The current market cap is $323m...'

Current market cap is in fact c.a.$247m.

Not $323m.

What's happening to you Man? Depressed? Unhappy? Wishing you'd sold more @ £3.20?

Aren't we all.

Cheer up pal.

We're on the right path, even though it's rocky and we're only wearing flip flops!!

Absolute tosh.

Bond debt of $248m due in 16 months.

Covenants require more than a 40% equity ratio (Total assets to Total debt) AND a$30m minimum liquidity.

Net cash down $108m in the last twelve months from $228m to $120m. Suppose Genel's forecast cash flows are wrong which we both know can happen when you're 'making an argument' at Board level. $100m can easily disappear on a spreadsheet.

Repeated references to recovery of delinquent debt @ $107m as a critical part of the recovery plan, like the recovery plan might not be feasible without it.

Future investment plans obviously and hugely dependent on law suits and the re-opening of the ITP.

Please don't make me go on.

Would you invest in Genel right now?

Whereas GKP sits in the becalmed waters without the storm of debt...

DYOR.

Get out of bed the wrong side this morning P?

Itsaaponzi,

Love that you have appropriated that profile.

No idea what your motives are, but Genel are not predicting gloom and doom...why would they?

Particularly with their debt profile.

Anyone who understands accounts will realise that Genel and GKP are entirely different enterprises with entirely different objectives based on entirely different financial structures.

The rest is b*llocks.

Well done.

Unless Weir is a special manager (which I doubt) then Genel are in a lot of trouble.

Having read Genel's full year results, I'd sooner be in Jon Harris's place than Paul Weir's right now.

Any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Good point well made BB.

Aah yes.

And the hits just keep on coming!

Truth is though, GKP can afford it and much more if the self-funding model still has legs.

And I believe it does.

If I'm wrong then I'm going to lose a lot of money...oh well. I can afford it.

Have a good weekend.

That equates to deranged management of what is a fragile asset under threat.

GKP needs to preserve its equity right now, not give it away on a whim.

There's plenty of time for the Board to recognise shareholder support when they're through this trauma.

But not now.

Surely.

The whole self-funding proposition depends on the pipeline re-opening...it's a given.

Otherwise GKP is just another traded stock with no intrinsic value.

What makes me laugh is that some investors don't get that.

Some of them even describe a scenario where with limited financial resources GKP would even consider dividends and/or buybacks as a serious option...idiots.

You might find that we've crossed the Rubicon...

This was a decent set of results given what the Board faced, most of which was outside of their control.

They played what was in front of them.

No chance that a serious Board would have pandered to shareholder clamour for dividends or buybacks when cash is at a real premium right now.

Looking at the financial statement, GKP only 'lost' money because of accounting impairments due to delinquent debt...an accounting requirement which has nothing to do with trading viability.

And on that matter, I wish PIs would concentrate more on future performance than past debt.

That debt is owed. $151m. No question.

But that is not the future. That's the past.

Sooner or later this impasse will be resolved.

GKP are debt free and so are uniquely positioned to drive their self-funding proposition forward.

I'm getting tired of gainsayers licking their wounds in public.

That was a good set of results in trying circumstances...

'Long live PSCs!'

Great point well made TM. Excellent post.

When this debacle is over GKP will recover very quickly as long as they don't give away their assets in the form of capital returns to whining shareholders who don't really understand the underpinning self-funding growth principle.

The IOCs via APIKUR wanted to be Queen, but that was never going to be possible.

The Castle's only got limited vision.

A Knight maybe...

That $82m-$86m is better sat on the Balance Sheet right now.

Not given away as capital returns, whether it's in the form of dividends or a $25m buyback sop to shareholders for their suffering.

That money will be needed (and a lot more) to restart Capex once this issue is resolved and the self-funding plan is re-ignited, as the Board still believes.

Because the basic field development model demands up front investment before cost recovery. Whatever form it may take when renegotiated.

There's plenty of time for shareholder appreciation via capital returns later, once some kind of normal service is resumed.

But not now.

Critically GKP are self sufficient and profit generative right now.

Future Cash Flow is profit dependent and in these constrained times JH and the Board have found a way.

Not the way planned, but nevertheless a way forward unless/until there's another way.

The best managers manage what's in front of them.

And right now that's the best PIs can expect.

Strikes me we're in good shape given the circumstances...which will inevitably change.

Then the Board will have to manage the new terms of engagement.

The question is whether investors believe in their commercial integrity...

So I reckon GKP can manage local market pricing because of their unique financial status.

And make money on the back of serious capex control to maintain the plant @ $6m, producing 38.4k bopd.

What if the taps are turned back on!!! Just run the numbers.

It gives me a hard-on...

Looks to me like GKP are forcing/controlling the market price because of their debt free status.

That's always going to be in their best interests and they're making money doing it.

Meanwhile they're involved in a larger discussion about the way forward and once again they're in a great position because of their debt free status.

That cannot be underestimated going forward. Debt free status.

A crucial negotiating tool.

Great time to buy?...God knows, not me.