Member Info for Straycat

BB,

You're not arguing the main point are you?

Just obfuscating.

So let's say you're right and the contract ends in 2038 (and I don't believe that to be the case)...so what?

Argue the point For Flip's Sake!!!

Other language is available if required...

Can we please do a little analysis in the context of Board responsibility?

As per the FYR and JH’s summary of ITP closure:-

1) ‘…we suspended the ordinary annual dividend’;

2) Ref capex and costs; ‘…with our aggregate run rate expected to remain at or below $6 million in 2024’;

3) Sales resumed in July by trucking to local markets;

4) Sales tracking at 43k bopd @$25 currently;

5) ‘At current local sales levels we are cash generative, with our current low gross production breakeven of c.22,000 bopd providing downside protection’;

6) ‘…GKP is currently owed $151 million net’ (although I reckon that delinquent debt will potentially be compromised for the greater good! N.B. hope I’m wrong);

7) ‘With the resumption of exports and the normalisation of payments, we would consider incremental investments to realise Shaikan’s potential.’;

The key words there are ‘consider’ and ‘incremental’.

And that’s JH’s negotiating position, i.e. these are choices GKP will make whatever the ICG think or say.

Otherwise known as make your mind up because we’ve got shareholders to consider.

Because we’re debt free!!!!

People without money (aka the rest of the APIKUR members) will always be susceptible to financial intimidation.

But not GKP.

Oh yes, and we’re sat on an oil field with a twenty eight year expiration date.

GKP will end up negotiating its own outcome, and I’m good with that.

Thoughts?

Where have you come from Alex, because you're right on my page!

Run the numbers at 50k bopd, or more significantly at 90k bopd, all self-funded, and the debate about delinquent debt disappears into the larger commercial ether. Recovering $151m should happen...obviously.

But it is irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. Simply petty cash.

And as for the revised PSC, which will inevitably happen now, it just needs to be managed by the Board to make sure that it suits us humble shareholders.

The Golden chalice is self funded growth.

But it will obviously be a decision taken at GKP level.

Not by a strange amalgam of APIKUR artificial construct, with their own disparate financial needs.

And don't get me started on Myles, their nominated negotiator.

' It's like you love to fight windmills, straw ones at that.'

That Don Quixote analogy would have worked much better if you'd tied it to the actual quote, which was 'tilting at windmills' not 'fighting' them.

And I don't know about the reference to 'straw'; not sure Cervantes ever mentioned that!!

Funny though, on several levels, some at your expense.

'For now there's strength in numbers'...

Wow! Have you looked at the 'strength' of the other members/numbers?

Come on PUTUP, just DYR.

PUTUP,

Unless I misread your post, you're in danger of taking my position on this.

What's wrong with you?

To be clear, Myles is definitely not the answer.

The bigger question is how/why/under what auspices was he appointed.

He looks/feels like a guy looking for a political future, and good luck with that.

Doesn't help my GKP position one jot.

Nor will it.

Good luck if he makes into Congress though.

And I wish him well.

But he ain't helping us.

Yes.

I read all that tosh PR.

So what?

I saw his 'presentation'.

Genuinely and wholly unimpressive.

"Patience still required".

In the end, the bet is on the Board and their ability to navigate these troubled waters.

And patience is obviously critical.

Along with confidence in GKP's relative position.

One thing's for sure; APIKUR will not provide the answer.

Pretty confident about that...

This won't be settled in the courts.

This will be settled by heavyweight and painful negotiation.

But we sit well in this environment because of the Re-structure; thank you LTHs. Genuinely.

Lots of pain I can only imagine.

And Caggins III won't be leading it. He'll be filling his pants in his cot with a very red pushing face.

Who the hell voted him in?

I doubt it was a vote. How could it be?

Business is business.

Not talking to GKP would be stupid if you're part of the ICG.

Off the record, in smoked filled rooms, without natural consequence or reproach.

Please tell me you know how these things work!!!

Sen,

You might be onto something there.

Contractually, pretty sure JH couldn't make representations to the ICG about re-negotiating contracts well established with the KRG.

But the ICG will almost certainly have been in contact with GKP to have those 'chats' and 'off piste'.

Why not? It's a significant field which is self-funded. And debt free. And capable of producing 100k bopd.

If I was representing the ICG, I would be pretty interested in that proposition.

Wouldn't you?

Don't forget from the ICG perspective the basic principle is to divide and rule...in this case APIKUR.

I reckon there's a sh*tload of stuff going on behind closed doors.

Because it matters to all participants.

MoUs are just an agreement to agree, without any real legal status.

BUT economics will eventually outweigh politics...it just takes time for the politicians to realise this simple economic truth.

The ITP will re-open because it's in every party's interest that it does.

The rest is about negotiating the terms. And that will affect the timescale.

APIKUR have no place at that table. Their amalgam is too weak, too disparate and too different in terms of the independent members' financial structure.

However, JH does have muscle , because GKP sit in a different space where they can control their own destiny due to their chequered and re-structured financial history and the benevolence of LTHs.

As a consequence, while JH cannot influence geopolitical affairs, he can at least determine GKP's response to those outcomes. While still making money.

Hopefully he'll do that in the best interests of us lot.

Given his actions over the last three plus years I have confidence in his motives and judgment.

Until I don't.

Where to begin?

1) Why do Americans insist on expressing their credentials by their third generation heritage...how insecure is that?;

2) What are his credentials to lead the APIKUR 'resistance'? Certainly not his Congressional contacts who are, at the very least, peripheral;

3) Who was responsible for his appointment and why?;

4) When do his Mum and Dad feed him his Farley's Rusks and milk before changing his nappy and putting him to bed?

So naive..

APIKUR is not involved in this negotiation at any meaningful level, and Caggins III does not have the gravitas to influence the outcome in any meaningful way.

Invstrat,

Absolutely genius!

Hilarious.

Great take on current arrangements.

Can't top it.

You are deliberately missing my point.

In management terms, any option shares offered should have been a reward for performance, NOT for checking in every morning!!

Absolutely an irresponsible and cowardly way to recruit which could/would only attract the least able managers.

Just look at the results and how many have jumped ship.

Decisions we're still paying for.

And ongoing...irritated.

Still an unnecessary dilution though.

You recently argued that GKP could afford to engage in another buyback to reduce the stock available for purchase.

GKP didn't engage, choosing rather to conserve their cash at this difficult time.

But this is just bad previous management of assets.

Once the LTHs had suffered that 100/1 pain there was no need to recruit peeps who couldn't/didn't help the cause.

And then reward them for not helping!!

Absolute nightmare.

At least this Board are pitching up by cutting their rewards.

Get it?

We're all on the same ship and it's not sinking, despite previous mismanagement.

As for future share options, they will end now because GKP can't afford them, I hope so anyway!

Correction. Apologies.

Point still stands though.

It is a big deal because the previous management 'Restructured' the business with shareholder funds and then continued to build development by bribing employees to stick around, even though GKP was recapitalised and safe from harm.

Ridiculous.

'The new Common Shares will be used to satisfy the exercise of vested options under the Long Term Incentive Plan.'

So as I understand today's RNS, the Board have decided to dilute our shareholding by c.a. 1%.

All to pay for yesterday's mistakes and pay off upcoming options.

I understand Jon Harris's rationale given the current climate and GKP's 'little local (and continuing) difficulty'.

Cash is King right now. And GKP need to keep it safe for the moment.

So we'll just have to chin it.

However, Jaap Huijskes, the previous Chairman, has a lot to answer for

Unfortunately he's no longer around. He's left with whatever his bag of swag was worth.

Even though he was repeatedly rejected for re-election by the 80% vote of shareholders at sequential AGMs

Talk about a poor recruitment decision...

This is just a negotiation.

Like any other.

The ITP. will re-open.

The rest is about the price GKP will have to pay in any re-negotiated PSC.

It's called 'leverage'.

And the ICG have it.

Relax.

GKP will negotiate its new position and decide on its response accordingly.

And then we'll make our minds up.

Pretty sure APIKUR will be an irrelevance...that committee of disparate companies have very different agendas depending on their own very different financial agendas.

This is a risk share.

And if you don't know that then you really shouldn't be in it.

TF is whoever he/she is.

But it's right that the whole GKP investment proposition depends on continued self-funding, albeit likely under a different guise.

He/she is also right that pricing guidance is critical, and the best start point is Brent crude.

Otherwise, let's just trade and go.