Member Info for Straycat

‘This is your mistake’.

No PUTUP.

There is no mistake.

GKP has categorically stated its opinion that, in its view:-

‘the Board believes that GKP’s current share price trades at a significant discount to the intrinsic value of the Shaikan Field and does not adequately reflect the near-term free cash flow generation from local sales’.

Hence the buyback initiative for CANCELLATION.

Not just simply a return of capital to shareholders.

I well remember your old and redundant argument about there being no difference between buying back to Treasury and buying back for cancellation.

Let’s not go there again, because you looked stupid.

And far be it from me to gloat…

Unless you’re arguing GKP are wrong to buyback and cancel.

Is that your argument?

In which case, explain yourself.

C*ckeye,

Nor me.

But rog made a telling point; if the shares aren't there then you can't buy them unless you pay a significant premium.

And that's got to be right (despite my management principles!).

And I reckon this is a carefully orchestrated buyback. But if I'm right and the sp is significantly undervalued, then Peel Hunt are hunting down their prey...

I hope so anyway.

Wasn't my quote C*ckeye.

It was taken out of their RNS.

I believe that GKP fundamentally undervalued and JH is absolutely got the right to test that view via buybacks, as long as they're for CANCELLATION.

What's your view?

Calm down TM,

I'm simply saying that the Board are playing what's in front of them.

Why are you so exorcised by that?

I have also questioned the bonus initiative...

I’m a simple (retired) FTSE 100 Main Board Director with serious experience in running and developing businesses, or collapsing them.

But I have no idea where this buyback policy is going, although it seems to be developing our investments in the face of serious adversity.

Eventually the share price will tell the tale.

What I do have, is confidence in the Board’s direction of travel.

Because GKP have recreated their trading reality by reference to their unique business quandary.

I don’t know JH. But I do understand his directional motives.

He’s in a tough place and he’s ‘working it through’. If you haven’t been there, then it’s a hard place to sit where he is right now.

I’m aware that I read like a JH sympathiser, but I’m not. I’ll call him out if I reckon he’s screwing up.

I just rate what he’s doing on our behalf.

Not sure about the re-instatement of bonuses btw, but that’s just management in action on the ground…

We’ll see.

The share price is the barometer.

Good point Rog, and I get that perspective, am even sensitive to it. Certainly not lost on me.

But there is another broader/bigger perspective too.

GKP have made a firm commitment to buyback $10m by 21/6. And a further commitment to seek approval for additional buybacks at the AGM.

And that goes to shareholder trust in the Board’s statements. These are not statements of intent. These are firm commitments to the shareholder base.

And we are relying on the veracity of those commitments for investment purposes.

Who cares if Shorter’s like Walleye take a pasting…in that world it goes with the territory.

As for the dividend option, well that is simply a return of capital to shareholders and an admission of defeat to the future…and I don’t see this share in that light right now.

I didn’t see defeat in the 13/5 OpUp. All I saw was a dedicated and full-on up-front assault on an undervalued sp, with more of the same to come.

Peel Hunt have one job in GKP’s current sp environment…both they and GKP will be judged accordingly.

I think the stakes are bigger than you do.

But that’s simply a matter of opinion.

If I’m right, PH will buy at whatever the market price is that they can attempt to manage. But in any case, GKP will meet its buyback commitments, now and going forward.

The other option is too unpalatable and would once again raise questions about GKP Board competence and trust in their words.

Also, if GKP are looking to reward performance with bonus initiatives via other AGM resolutions and they fail on their buyback RNS public statements, how does that look to shareholders?

Call me naïve. I often do.

After today’s buyback ‘spree’ of 103k shares(!), here’s where we sit-

1) $10m buyback initiated in 13/5 to be competed by the AGM on 21/6 or earlier;

2) £1.75m spent (ca. $2.25m);

3) Ergo ca. $7.75m to spend in the next 15 trading days;

4) So that’s now an average of 515k buybacks every day;

5) Depending on the stretch of your spreadsheet model that could equate to anything from 5.5m shares (@ £1.40), down to 5.1.m(@ £1.50), down to 4.4m (@£1.75). Et al…

But that’s only if the Market re-assesses its value of GKP, given the Board’s absolute determination to correct and improve that valuation by reference to future buybacks for cancellation.

Something it will seek shareholder permission to do at the upcoming AGM.

Nevertheless, $7.75m’s a lot of stock to buyback for cancellation in a rapidly shrinking timeframe pre AGM.

Fascinated by the Board’s instructions to Peel Hunt…and Peel Hunt’s strategic approach. Because this not a simple return of capital to shareholders. The Board have taken a position. And no doubt PH will have been advised of what may be coming down the track, post AGM approvals.

‘the Board believes that GKP’s current share price trades at a significant discount to the intrinsic value of the Shaikan Field and does not adequately reflect the near-term free cash flow generation from local sales’.

Is the buyback strategy well advised in that context?

Are they right?

I think so, but we’ll know soon enough.

Interesting times…

‘It smells of something, like a decomposing corpse.’

I have a partner who smells the same way…difficult to love as a consequence!

Still necrophilia has its benefits; you don’t get any arguments!!

Not sure why, but I think there is something in the PSC which restricts GKP’s ability to take their cash and invest it elsewhere.

You’ll know better than me BB…is that correct?

More and more buybacks for CANCELLATION, again, and again, as FCF dictates...with our without the re-opening of the ITP and the consequential difficult re-negotiations.

The World's turning peeps', and we'd better turn with it!

We'll eventually find our true value or buy back our own Company.

Why not ?

Don't you just love this share...

Swell,

I don't know what the answer to that is.

But I do know Peel Hunt are running out of time!!

In my opinion they should bleed it into the Market over the residual period.

Like I say, not a clue really...

However, I reckon there's gonna be pressure on the share price shortly...

Don't you just love this share?

Well if it isn't a game, then you've got too much money invested.

Then it gets serious...

For what it's worth, and it definitely isn't worth much, this share is seriously undervalued and the Board are trying to deal with it in the only way they can.

By investing in GKP's future and taking out the trading gainsayers....

18 trading days to go until AGM on 21/6.

By which time GKP, by their own volition, have to have completed their buyback FOR CANCELLATION programme of $10m.

Before they then seek permission to engage in more buybacks, presumably for cancellation, to further shrink the Common Share base. For the reason that, in their view, the sp is seriously undervalued and trades at ‘a significant discount to the intrinsic value of the Shaikan Field…’.

The Board are clearly pressing the point that they think the Market has got its valuations seriously wrong, given where the Company sits right now.

There are no buybacks today. Which means that Peel Hunt have to spend an average ca. $438k+ a day to achieve the Board’s target. Or ca. £342k @1.28. Or ca. 4m+ shares @, say £1.40. Or ca. another two percent of the Common Share base. Who knows? Any spreadsheet will give up the options. But they all look good if you think the shares are undervalued.

With more buybacks to come.

Sooner or later that’s going to impact the sp IF:-

‘the Board believes that GKP’s current share price trades at a significant discount to the intrinsic value of the Shaikan Field and does not adequately reflect the near-term free cash flow generation from local sales’.

And IF they’re right…and I think they are.

The FCF is looking good to me. What do you think?

I reckon a share price squeeze is coming, as the Market realises they’re losing the argument…

Don’t you just love this share?

Only one comma required, apologies.

I don't love you that much!!!

Nobody should be shorting this stock right now, unless you're stupid.

Unfortunately there are 'Stupids' out there...so what you gonna do?

Just buy more if you are a real investor and you believe in the basic proposition...or quit and take your money with you.

In the end it's all about Buy or Sell.

The rest is about judgment. And we all get that wrong from time to time...

Inv,

Your in the same place as ValueS, and I respect your positions. Genuinely.

Don't understand the pain you've suffered financially, and thank God!

Thing is, history should teach us stuff. But it never does.

So we have to play the future as we see it.

I personally like the front foot approach being enabled by the current Board.

Let's take it to the Market, let's state our belief in the Company we jointly own, and let's cut loose!!

Put another way...f*ck 'em.

We'll buy our Company back with or without their support.

Don't give up Inv...

13/5/2024:-

‘The Company has agreed that the Buyback Programme will commence immediately and run to the earlier of its completion or the Company’s 2024AGM on 21 June 2024’.

17/5 – 343,658 purchased @ weighted average £1.3080 = £449504.66;

20/5 - 350,905 purchased @ weighted average £1.3306 = £466914.19;

21/5 – 361351 purchased @ weighted average £1.3637; = £492774.36;

22/5 – 150,000 purchased @weighted average £1.3990. = £209850.

So, and in summary:_

1) We’ve spent £1.6m or ca. $2.1m;

2) We’ve bought 1.2m shares back for cancellation;

That means there’s another ca. $8m for buybacks that must be spent before the deadline of 21/6.

Bearing in mind the view of the Board is that:-

‘the Board believes that GKP’s current share price trades at a significant discount to the intrinsic value of the Shaikan Field and does not adequately reflect the near-term free cash flow generation from local sales’.

There are only twenty trading days before the AGM.

Depending on the sp reaction to pressure, that’s a lot of stock to buyback for cancellation in a very limited time frame.

Let’s see how the Market responds.

Because they have a determined Company on their hands that are now committed to their cause…and are seeking further permission to pursue it via the AGM.

And the cause is resuscitating the intrinsic value in GKP.

Don’t you just love this share?

Excellent! At least we'll be able to speak the same language!!

Look, I'm interested in your view on the general direction of Bloe travel, since you are an influencer on this bb.

Don't care one jot about that, influencers I could care less about.

But I am interested in your views.

No more, no less.

And that's all.

How does CCS change the financial outlook for Bloe in your opinion?

Chesh,

I'm properly invested in Bloe.

And I care about the outcomes.

IF you're Scottish, well that's not my problem it's yours, and good luck with that.

However, do you have a view on Bloe and the CCS and its ramifications?

I'll tell you my experience, and what I know.

PH was well out of his depth when he assumed the CEO position...obviously.

But the more time you get on the pitch the more you learn. And if you have any talent then the better you get (rugby reference).

I don't reckon he's the sharpest blade in the box, but he's definitely learned from his mistakes and is prepared to adapt.

These are great management flexes and not many managers have that ability.

Most just dig in.

I'm not supporting his history of decision making...why would I?

But he's definitely learning and a lot of managers never understand that.

And in English that would mean???