Member Info for Straycat

My God P,

I'm not 'bidding the stock up'.

I am invested in a semi-serious way and I'm looking for informed opinion which would counter my own narrative, which posits the potential for a self-funding outcome.

And you ain't providing that counter-narrative.

Because you're a bean-counter. Nothing more, nothing less.

You've no idea whether the renegotiated cost recovery plan will be 'more constrained' or more flexible.

What we can agree on is that it will be renegotiated...inevitably.

I wish I could convince you that this is a self-funding business model that can fly.

Unfortunately, you don't have the intellectual reach.

Which is why you're just a simple analyst.

And on the matter of muppetry, surely by now you know I've been styling that out ever since I landed on this bb.

You're living in LaLa Land.

You need a model based on no $151m delinquent debt recovery, because it will be negotiated away in any new deal.

Are you so naive?

And you need to forget the current cost recovery model...it also will be renegotiated.

What you need to do is to assume a new proposition for GKP's forward self-funding platform to 100k bopd.

Because that's what's going to happen.

I can help if you want.

Forget the delinquent debt.

It'll get washed away in any renegotiation.

Looking forward, and given the geopolitical surroundings and uncertainties, this is definitely a risk share.

My (unrequested) advice is to strap in or eject.

Binary decision.

Rog,

So sow's ear for you then?

Your choice, your vision.

No argument there...I just see a different horizon.

Could be wrong.

I've already made my money.

Unfortunately for me, I've also bought into the Management dream.

Because I reckon it's worth pursuing...

Five years is what it takes to get to 100k bopd with another $800m investment and a rapprochement of the previous arrangements, or an equivalent.

Jonathan Swift posited that question back in 1801, although he may have been regurgitating an old argument.

Essentially, the question is whether or not there's value in this stock.

I say there is.

Because:-

1) It is debt free;

2) It has a Plan B with shareholder value at its core;

3) There is EVERY prospect of some form of re-negotiated return to self-funding reality and 100k bopd;

4) And a Management Team who seem dedicated to the cause.

There will be detractors who are looking for short term gain...aren't we all?

But if I'm any judge (which is questionable!) this is a good bet over the next five years given the financial stability and the management commitment.

Tough times out of GKP's control, that's all.

You can only play what's in front of you.

I have a pure bred English Springer Spaniel.

And she has 'a condition'. She is prone to the PG...pleasure growl. Check it out.

When she wants you to know how much she loves you, she gives herself up with a deep warm growl.

Are you PGing me P?

Feels like you're PGing me...

Don't blame you...I'm absolutely gorgeous and you can't help yourself, obviously!!!

As for further distributions to shareholders, I'm pretty relaxed about the timing.

Woof Woof!!

I don't give a toss about Itsaponzi...total loser.

PUTUP is not. He's credible, and necessary to this Board because he challenges the views of people like me.

And he's who I was addressing my comments to.

Nobody cares about Itsaponzi.

No P.

The results were not disappointing. In the circumstances they were commendable.

They were just disappointing to you because there were no buybacks to cover employee positions.

What you preach from is the platform of milking the Company for short term shareholder benefit.

Whereas some of us are interested in the possible future of GKP and its potential.

I know you don't get it and you're fully entitled to your myopic view of GKP's options.

Insular and lacking in vision as they are.

But in the end you are just a numbers man aren't you?

No dividends, no buybacks.

No problem with cash building and cash conservation right now.

Uncertain times.

Steady as she goes...

1) Further interim $15M dividend or ;

2) No/token dividend;

3) Buyback commencement up to 10% of Common shares on the basis of ;

a. Buybacks for cancellation;

b. for Treasury;

c. both;

d. none of the above.

4) Restart of the ITP and massive re-investment in the goal to 100k bopd under current terms;

5) Restart of the ITP under re-negotiated terms;

6) No change to current arrangements pending issues outside of GKP's remit.

My money's on 2, 3b, and 6. Not that I find that conclusion palatable in any way.

We'll see.

‘saying the company is out to get the little guy and resenting anyone else making a profit out of the company.‘

I’ve no investment in Invstrat or his opinions, but you’re talking total b*llocks.

The first $10m buyback this year was specifically for cancellation. Great. They’re gone for good.

Resolution 9 of the AGM makes no reference to the next phase of buybacks being for cancellation:-

‘THAT the Company be generally and unconditionally authorised to make market purchases of its Common Shares.’

No reference to cancellation at all. Not anywhere.

So why the assumption that that 10% share buyback authorisation is for cancellation?

Up to 21.7m shares might be bought back for Treasury purposes; likely rewards for loyalty, in which case the sp. cannot properly respond because those Treasury shares will certainly re-appear at some point when grateful managers reap their ‘rewards’…

Don’t have a problem with bonuses…imo the Board deserve them, but out of profits and not for just sticking around.

Next week, if the Board announce share buybacks are for Treasury (in whole or in part, and they are bound to declare whether they’re for cancellation or Treasury or both) then at least we will know where we stand.

But Resolution 9 has been carefully crafted to allow the Board complete latitude to decide how it wants to spend our money.

I’m just a plebster, what do I know as a simple private investor?

Truth is, if you run the numbers on a re-opening of the ITP and a resumption of investment into 100k bopd, GKP can afford to do both dividends and buybacks on a half yearly basis...

JH just has to run the course, which he is.

The ITP will re-open. There will be a renegotiation of production terms, and GKP is uniquely positioned to take advantage of these inevitable changes.

Have we got the right Managers in post to manage those changes?

I reckon we have.

A pivotal moment.

For shareholders and Company strategy alike.

Will GKP launch their much vaunted buyback strategy? Up to 10% of the Company’s Common share base i.e. 21.7m shares?

Think so. But will those shares bought back be for cancellation or to Treasury?

If the former then they’re gone forever and shrink the available stock for sale. And IF, as JH has stated, the stock is still undervalued against its ‘intrinsic value’ then that will inevitably trigger an upward trajectory for the sp.

But is it still undervalued by potential and existing investors given the current commercial climate?

I think so.

And will GKP offer another dividend to shareholders, maybe up to $15m?

I think so.

GKP current and forecast FCF suggests that they can (and should) put out on another loyalty dividend.

The problem is that the secret to real success depends on the re-opening of the ITP and a concerted effort to develop self- funding production to 100k bopd under any renegotiated arrangement.

Otherwise the next twelve months are going to be a policy of make do and mend until the current pipeline arrangements terminate.

On a more serious note, we're all treading water, waiting for the next OpUp.

And no one can realistically predict what will be in it.

Obviously there'll be performance stats.

And an outlook assessment, as far as is possible.

As for any dividend announcement, not sure. Hope so because my analysis of FCF suggests that it is quite possible.

What do you reckon?

ValueS

Ha! 'Black car Cadillac, looking for the cemetery'.

My God, it can be a freakish world.

More importantly, how come you know this trash?

I was joking...what's your excuse?

Funny.

What does it matter?

As a practicing nechrophiliac it certainly is a matter of no importance to me whether GKP is alive or dead.

GKP will still get f*cked.

It's not a popular view, but I reckon shareholders should steel themselves for the possibility that the delinquent debt will never be recovered.

It'll have to be addressed in any future arrangement; some form of words suggesting the prospect of future performance related claw-back maybe, who knows? And in God's great scheme of things it doesn't matter anyway. It's petty cash.

AS LONG AS GKP get a new deal which more properly protects their interests.

Critically GKP's eyes should remain focused on that ever elusive prize of self-funding growth to 100k bopd in any renegotiation of terms.

The future with priority over the past.

I regard delinquent debt recovery as a bonus in any renegotiation of terms.

'Good'.

You're a patronising f*ck aren't you?

Anyway, you got it in one.

Try and keep up!

Mr Patronising...