Member Info for Straycat

I think I love you Jens...BOT's such a w*nker, and wholly irrelevant in this new commercial climate.

I'm letting the BOT go.

But I love you and I'm wholly heterosexual!!!

If you're not a woman, what can I do?????

I can't fight my natural tendencies!!!

Long live the battle to self-funding growth.

Never seen a simpler business model to self-funding success.

You know what PUTUP?

You are really losing your relevance nowadays.

Go BOT somewhere else.

Leave us true investors to cogitate, digest and share our suspicions, our fears and our expectations.

For good or bad.

You're not helping anyone; not even yourself.

Put(up) another way, leave us alone and morph yourself somewhere else.

Not that I care. I've already made my mind up about the BOT.

Anyone else feel the same way?

Barchart...

Okay, let's let it breathe. Good stuff.

But it doesn't address the fundamentals.

And they are:-

1) GKP are debt free;

2) GKP are cash generative in the most difficult of circumstances;

3) There is no question that the ITP will re-open one way or another this year;

4) GKP are protecting our best interests right now by building a cash wall;

5) Once the ITP opens, GKP are going to be in prime position to exploit its potential.

No wonder the sp is responding positively...

GKP will fly and we're all going to suck up the benefits.

Can't see any other way right now.

But I guarantee I've been wrong before.

Not now though.

We're on.

The key is no debt. And that's thanks to the Re-structure in 2016.

Hopefully the real LTHs will end up realising their investments.

I hope so anyway.

Hi LS,

Okay, so you're talking about the broader issue of returns of capital to shareholders, in whatever form.

Gotcha.

Well let’s have a quick look at that.

As per the half year report for 2024:-

1) Net Assets $528m;

2) Market cap currently ca. £330m = ca. $410m;

3) An undervaluation of over $100m.

This is not justified in my opinion. Not in the current circumstances.

In fact, not in any circumstances given that GKP are still extremely cash positive and have a plan for serious self-funding growth. Not all AKIPUR members are in that situation. Which only helps GKP’s cause.

The ITP will re-open, GKP are debt -free, and well capable of re-setting the self funding model to 100k bopd under the right renegotiated arrangements.

To me, it’s not even a debate…it’s all about follow through and commitment to the cause.

HNY LS

‘I have two thoughts as below:

- based on local sales only estimate 30p to be paid during 2025 calendar year

- if pipeline reopens 50p plus dividends assuming reopening in Q1

- if pipeline reopens and positive agreement on back payments then 80p+

Thoughts???’

Last calendar year GKP paid out 12.45p per share under trying circumstances. Why would they suddenly pay out 2*5 as much in the same circumstances this year?

Particularly when there's a real possibility of the ITP re-opening this year, one way or another.

IF/when the ITP re-opens then all bets are off.

Capex to restablise the model and respond to the new requirements aside, you're right.

We are all in the money.

Happy New Year Jens.

Here's to you.

Best Regards

SC.

That won't happen.

$24bn is clearly an opening gambit.

But it's a good opening position. And this definitely commercial chess.

In truth, If GKP recover their delinquent debt of $151m, that will be a result.

I reckon that's the most realistic outcome. didn't use to...

But only as long as it coincides with a recognisable self-funding growth plan based on previous agreements which, after all, is GKP's basic development model to 100k bopd.

If that's the outcome then we're all in the money, one way or another!!

Happy New Year to all contributors.

As a sign off for2024, please understand my tragic recent choices.

Bought a six bedroom second home in the South of France with twelve metre pool set in ca. three acres.

So Far so good.

Twenty four hours after we decanted back to the UK for Christmas ‘en famille’ there was a Mistral right over my new second home.

Ruined my new Japanese next door neighbour’s stone built garage with a tree that the storm threw across it..

Just excellent…lucky me.

And I don’t speak Japanese!!!

Tragic. Paid in advance of any insurance claim to ameliorate the collateral neighbour emotional damage.

Totally wrong under French insurance regulations. The Jap should have claimed first…who knew?

Anyway, now I know I’m an imbecile (like I didn't already!).

Merry Christmas and a Happy (and hopefully prosperous) New Year to you all.

Regards

Total Loser SC.

For 'net asset value' apologies.

Please read 'market value'.

The GKP model has been derailed by extraneous events beyond its control.

Right now they’ve changed that model to preserve liquidity and viability. And to defend their shareholders’ investments.

Local sales.

Good job well done.

But not their raison d’etre.

GKP’s basic set up (post Re-structure) is to develop self-funding growth to 100k bopd, using contractual means to achieve that.

And that contractual relationship is now compromised by geo-political events.

Clearly there will be a re-negotiation of terms.

But the very Idea that a business with self-funding ambitions would even contemplate-

‘With - hopefully - a brighter outlook in front of them (greater possibility of export resumption and on the cusp of greater receivable recovery) management should return a big chunk of cash to shareholders. I'd push for a dividend of $50 million or more. Unfortunately I suspect management will be too conservative and prefer to hoard cash at shareholder expense... Perhaps $30-40 million is a more sensible, albeit disappointing, expectation.’

is both strange and deranged in equal measure.

Why would you ship ca. 30%-40% of your hard earned cash to us lot, if you’re ambition was to develop the future Field potential?

Particularly when your net asset value is currently ca. $292m, of which cash is projected to be around £110m by year end!

That basic concept essentially rapes the business of any future potential to grow on its own terms ongoing.

And, for me, that’s wrong.

As an investor, you’re either a believer or not. If not, fine by me. No judgment.

If you are, then a year end dividend of $10-$15m is a really good result.

Hey C,

Was that you getting my back?

Or giving other contributors a shoeing?

Maybe both?

Anyway and either way, thank you.

Rog,

‘The cancellation of shares marginally increases the value of the shares that remain in circulation. Ie. a total dividend of say 10 million dollars will be split between less shares thus very slightly increasing the dividend paid per share.’

I’m not sure I see it that way. At one level, you’re absolutely right. Of course.

But I guess my point is that IF the Board thinks the shares ARE intrinsically undervalued, then why aren’t PH and C actively seeking to take them out of circulation for good, thereby reducing the Common share pool forever?

One thing’s for sure…that’s certainly not happening right now.

So either the brokers think the sp is appropriate to market value now, or another strategy is being deployed.

And as I have indicated, the sp has moved 2p between 8/10 and now (£1.33-£1.35). With one miniscule buyback intervention.

So like I say, either the brokers have decided that the current sp is broadly in line with market expectations, or their brief is to try and manage those market expectations. And maybe both.

In any case, it seems to me that they should be buying back shares for cancellation right now.

Because sooner or later, that will put a squeeze on the share price on your analysis, even if the current sp is an accurate reflection of current circumstances.

Or perhaps the Board can see things on the horizon that might create sp volitivity. But in that case, $10m could have been $20m or more on the 8/10. And it wasn’t.

And an explanatory RNS is out of the question, it being a market alert and all!!

I reckon something else is going on. But I’m not a conspiracy theorist.

I just don’t know and I can’t even speculate, which is because there is no real visibility of intention, apart from RNS obtuse disclosures.

Suffering SC.

As per the 2024 AGM agenda in advance of 21/6/24:-

‘Resolution 9:-

THAT the Company be generally and unconditionally authorised to make market purchases of its Common Shares in such manner as the Directors shall from time to time determine, provided that:

(i) the maximum aggregate number of Common Shares hereby authorised to be purchased is 22,269,865 (representing approximately 10% of the aggregate issued Ordinary Share capital of the Company as at 14 May 2024);

Point(ii) is standard jargon referencing Stock Exchange rules, and irrelevant otherwise;

(iii) such authority shall expire (unless otherwise renewed, varied or revoked by the Company in a general meeting) at the conclusion of the AGM of the Company in 2025…’

So why aren’t GKP buying some this time around?

They were authorised to buy up to 22.3m at that time, and that authority lasts until the 2025 AGM. It got 100% shareholder approval. Carte blanche.

And yet, on the most recent $10m buyback initiative, they’ve bought a paltry 16.6k at a VWAP of £1.2475 (purchased on 17/10/24) as announced on 8/10/24. That’s forty three trading days since the only purchase made so far.

And that purchase was a small fraction of the available buyback facility announced.

GKP initially stipulated that it was because, according to their RNS on 13/5/24:-

The Board believes that GKP’s current share price trades at a significant discount to the intrinsic value of the Shaikan Field and does not adequately reflect the near-term free cash flow generation potential from local sales…’

So I ask again.

Why aren’t GKP buying back for cancellation?

Do they think that the shares are now valued more appropriately than they were on 13/5/24?

Well, on 13/5 the shares were @ £1.27.

On 8/10 and on the back of the share buyback announcement they were valued @ £1.33.

And then a miniscule amount were bought on 17/10 @£124.75. The sp is currently trading @ca. £1.36.

But according to other contributors on this bb, buybacks are just a return of capital to shareholders, and the price at which the shares are bought back, whether for cancellation or to Treasury, is irrelevant!

That’s clearly not the case here. GKP are obviously trying to manage sp expectations.

The question remains; Why?

The idea that share buybacks are simply returns of capital to shareholders and that the price paid for those shares is immaterial is quite clearly for the birds.

Coming back to my previous post concerning GKP potential.

In 2018, the last reliable indication of future performance...

1) Revenue $250m;

2) Post tax Profits $80m;

3) Capex $45m building to $200m+ over six years to ca.100k bopd over that period;

4) Average 32k bopd in the year...that's now a stupid production number because it's been overtaken by events 'in exremis' and has been swollen as a consequence. 40k+bopd including the shutdown of PF-1, and truck unavailability;

5) ca.$74 pb over the year 2018;

6) major redistributions to shareholders on the back of one year's real performance, although that buyback was a joke imo.

If the ITP can be re-opened on terms that GKP find acceptable, then In summary, you're looking at a business re-investing min.$150m- $200m a year over five years, developing ca. $400/$500m revenue annually over time, depending on the rate of re-investment and the oil price. With profits circling $200m- $250m in future years. Cash receipts slightly delayed, and must be part of the revised agreements reached.

Nevertheless, that's what we're playing for.

Major capital returns later on the back of investment commitments following renegotiated terms of engagement.

And that's what the Board are facing and that's how they'll be judged.

The last reliable/credible accounts for GKP were in 2019, relating to 2018 trading.

Following that there was Covid and now the extended ITP shutdown which has compromised GKP’s financial position.

In 2018, GKP reported sales of $250m generating profits of $80m with $296m in the bank (excepting $100m of stupid insurance costing $11m p.a. and a wholly unnecessary debt which JH correctly paid off).

Capex was $45m and planned to increase to $200m+ a year on the back of self-funding growth to 100k bopd.

The next phase requires GKP to stand by their self-funding plan and negotiate a new deal which ensures shareholders best interests.

By which I mean self-funding growth to ca.100k bopd.

If anyone cares to run the numbers on the current PSC, it’s staggering.

That PSC will change, as have circumstances.

But the Board’s duty is to preserve and enhance shareholder value.

And intrinsically, for me, that involves a renewed and reinvigorated press for self-funding growth.

Well that's me with a slapped a*se then!!

But I take the point.

No problem.

SC.

OOOAH!!!...

Tetchy thing she is...

Cancel me, no problem.

Can't hack it can you?

Cancel me.

My best mate PUTUP said:-

‘I'm glad I told a friend to trip last week at 150. Should have followed my own advice.’

Well if you don’t follow your own advice, then why should anyone else follow it?

What you fail to understand is that this is a serious share for serious investors.

And it’s seriously risk rewarding.

But it’s also seriously dangerous as an investment, unless you’re trading.

In which case, good luck to all you players…no problem.

PUTUP, only climbed in @ ca.80p because he saw an opportunity to make a ‘quick buck’, as the US traders call it.

Unfortunately for him, he’s smart enough to have seen the intrinsic value in the share and its true potential.

But it’s a rough ride.

Just imagine the pain of the real LTHs…not that he cares one jot.

Accentuate that for a short term U.S trader who forgets his roots.

Now he’s trapped. And now, put simply, his whining needs to stop.

PUTUP, grow up or get out.

Not a clue what his investment is, not a clue whether or not he’s even real!

Either way I don’t care.

I care about LTH PIs and their outlook.

Because I’m one of them (Post-Restructure) and I’m engaged with the self-funding future proposition, with all its potential pitfalls. And I’m definitely invested in it in a serious way.

In my view the ITP will re-open because it makes financial sense to all parties. This is a matter of timing and revised terms.

The bet is whether JH and the Board can negotiate a position which makes sense of the current climate, and enables self-funding profitable growth.

Incidentally PUTUP, when do you think VANQ ( previously Provident Financial) will meet your exit price of 60p given it’s recent history?

Oh yes, and who cares? Well I care, because it goes to the issue of your analytical credentials...

Everyone’s got a track…are you real? Or just a Bot.