Member Info for Straycat

Laughton,

So not perfect timing to be buying then.

Bugger.

Still bought though...

Bugger!

Looks good to me.

Ha!

Maybe, though I seriously doubt it...

Meanwhile I've just put more money into this dubious share with a dubious future.

So who's the idiot?

So here’s the thing.

Stakes are now complicated by events, some of which are beyond GKP’s control.

But it seems to me that September signals a seminal event.

Risk is high, but so’s the reward if GKP get it right.

To buy or not to buy, that is the question?

Think I’ll be buying right now…

So overweight on this share already!

Hope I’m not going down a rabbit hole.

Hey Ho.

Not, given certain cast iron payment securities.

How that's achieved is a conundrum.

But is solvable if there's the right will.

So, it looks like the ITP contract between Turkey and Iraq closes in September:-

‘AMENDMENT To The Crude Oil Pipeline Agreement Dated 27 August 1973 And Subsequent relevant Agreements, Protocols, Minutes of Meetings and Addendums Between The Government of the Republic of Iraq And The Government of the Republic of Turkey 1 of 11 Last Version — 19/9/2010 Case 1:23-cv-00978-CKK Document 1-6 Filed 04/10/23 Page 1 of 11 I 1 Amendment to the Crude Oil Pipeline Agreement dated 27 August 1973 and Subsequent relevant Agreements, Protocol’.

Plus the five year extension rule starting 2011:-

4.2 The entire text of the Article 10 of the Agreement dated 27 August 1973 and the Article 4 of the Addendum dated 30 July 1985 is amended as shown below: "The tariff of transport in article 4.1 above shall be updated every (5) years time period considering 1st January 2011 as the base year for the first (5) years period. The tariff shall be adjusted based on the United States of America CPI-U (Consumer Price Index All Urban Consumers — www.bls.gov) annual data.

In summary, as far as I can tell, the KRG are able to reconstruct their relationship regarding international exports of KRG oil without ICG approvals by October.

Not sure about this, but that’s what it looks like.

In that case, delinquent debt and its resolution not withstanding and future payment protection mechanisms needed to be in place, why would GKP dilute their position when they don’t need to?

Because ICG say so.

Obviously an open debate.

Thoughts?

Don't do 'fake news'.

Never have, never will.

But thanks for the insult.

Why don't you DYOR, you Plonker?

It's all out there...

No.

DYOR

Fit,

It's a simple question with a complicated answer which I'll attempt to simplify.

You won't find it because GS didn't sell his shares until he'd left the Company.

He was no longer an employee.

So he didn't have to comply with the declaration rules.

Because he didn't have a 3% shareholding in GKP and he wasn't employed by them anymore.

He was a private investor taking investment/de-investment decisions.

That's all.

‘I doubt any GKP inside info from May 2023 is relevant to today’s situation.’

Of course it matters.

GS has seen inside JH’s corporate and company mindset.

For two years.

And now he’s running ShaMaran with a recently declared intention of investment in the immediate GKP region.

What do you think he'll do with that knowledge?

Fit,

He sold ca. 1.1m shares on 16/6/23 @ £1.23.

Just after he resigned from the GKP Board to take up his new position with ShaMaran.

It’s difficult for me because I’m not an Itza sympathiser…far from it.

We all know what his game is.

But has he got a point?

Are GKP/APIKUR better off stalling until the end of the contractual arrangements between ICG and Turkey in September?

And so I’m looking for information:-

1) Is it correct that the ITP contract with the ICG ends in September?;

2) Is it correct that IF that’s right, then GKP have the right to pursue their goals via the KRG direct?;

3) And IF that’s correct, what’s to stop GKP resuming their current arrangements with KRG, obviously $151m delinquent debt outstanding and to be repaid under current PSC arrangements?

I should know the answer to these questions, but I’m too lazy!!

Don't make me do the analysis if you've already done it.

Not sure that's my preferred outcome because of the KRG's track record on payments.

Interesting though, IF true.

The bigger question is whether there is any relationship between Lansdowne and Lundin.

And I have no idea. No evidence apparent.

Why would there be if my conspiracy theory is right?

It probably isn't.

But you've got to wonder...

I never fail to be surprised by the lack of transparency on the other side of the fence as a PI. There shouldn't be a fence.

However, complete disclosure, there are times of uncertainty when less is more. No Director wants to misrepresent the Company position.

Puts the Board in a very frustrating position.

.Garrett Soden is an interesting character.

He lived inside GKP as a NED/Non-Independent NED at Lansdowne’s insistence for six years because of their distrust of GKP’s direction of travel.

As far as I can tell, at the same time he was also a senior executive of Lundin Group, a Vancouver based oil business, who happen to own ShaMaran:-

‘Garrett Soden has extensive experience as a senior executive and board member of various public companies in the natural resources sector. He is currently President and CEO of Africa Energy Corp. and has a long history with the Lundin Group of companies.’

He left GKP in May 2023 to become CEO of ShaMaran in July 2023. And he sold shares in GKP, probably for profit and political reasons…I’m feel sure he will have been rewarded by Lundin as part of the deal.

All of this is conspiratorial, I know. BUT:-

1) He was around in GKP when strategic decisions were taken post ITP closure; and

2) Therefore, he almost certainly has inside information on GKP future strategy.

And now he’s working for a competitor who has expressed a real interest in investing in the arena.

I reckon the next development phase will be riveting per the sp.

JH is in the best possible position to evaluate his options after a whole world of turmoil over the past two years.

A world that he has clearly navigated in shareholders’ best interests.

Looks like he’ll be able to unleash the debt free beast that is GKP at some point shortly.

Massive re-investment in the promised land of debt free growth to 100k bopd; huge returns on those investments for self-funding growth; and critically, significant returns to shareholders over time.

Don’t know about the sp impact in the short term…don’t care either.

But you’d have to be blind not to see the increasing investor interest recently.

BP and politics go hand in hand.

Given their geo-political reach and history absolutely no problem there.

There's a reason they're net asset worth is £67bn . And their FCF is £27bn as at year end 2024.

They've got peeps who know what they're doing.

And I know.

My point exactly.

Why would you sell any shares awarded in that region as a senior executive right now unless you had to?

Put(up) another way, Soden is in for another timescale.

And he knows what's happening in the region.

I'll tell you what the problem is BroadfordBay.

You've been posting on this site for years, denigrating GKP's position.

Using spurious arguments and using information that you have accumulated over many years of posting and postulating.

None of which has stood the test of time.

I am aware that you and PUTUP are in the same camp.

No problem with that; but you're losing the argument.

And you really need to get that.

From BP WEBSITE:-

“In 2024 we laid the foundations for growth. We have been reshaping our portfolio - sanctioning new major projects, and focusing our low-carbon investment - and we have made strong progress in reducing costs. Building on the actions taken in the last 12 months, we now plan to fundamentally reset our strategy and drive further improvements in performance, all in service of growing cash flow and returns. It will be a new direction for bp and we look forward to sharing it at our Capital Markets Update on 26 February.”

Murray Auchincloss, chief executive officer.

If you read behind the headlines, BP have now restructured their business so that they are more ‘oil friendly’. Not so much eco dedicated any more. So much so that BP have hived off their net zero ‘ambitions’ to a sideline new Company structure.

Why?

Trump.

I guess my point is that BP are simply dealing with the new Trump reality and they need to act in the best interests of their shareholders.

BP 2024 FCF $27bn.

Which is why they’re in Kirkuk.

Which is why they will obviously be interested in debt free businesses with massive assets and legally agreed contractual rights…GKP.

Just saying.

And while I’m doing conspiracy theory…

The real story about Soden is that he was a NED and then a non independent NED of GKP for six years. All at the insistence for Lansdowne’s continued support.

He then became CEO of ShaMaran in 2023 having previously been a senior executive and Board member of Lundin Group ( which owns ShaMaran) while he was part of the GKP Board.

Put another way, he knows about GKP stuff!!

I have no problem with that at all.

But it suggests that he has information not in the public domain.

So why isn’t he selling his shares?

There will be definitely be a reason.

Payce,

That was arguably the best post on this bb for years.

Now I’m begging you; don’t trawl through my posts over the same time frame!

I don’t think I’m equipped to deal with the criticism.

Awesome summary analysis and right on the button.

All credit to you.

This poster PUTUP is past his sell buy date…and the bb has worked him out.