Member Info for Straycat

Yesterday's cold bacon has no place on today's fresh food platter.

I could exemplify but I won't.

I’m going to tell you a secret; I’m starting to consider putting a toe in the water of Warhammer as a game concept.

Trying to understand how this whole new world (to me) works.

Fascinating…unfortunately genuinely not my bag.

But I’ll need to understand this fascination for what it is.

Obviously I’ve only looked at the numbers and the management perspective so far.

And that’s great as far as it goes. But it won’t take me to the next level of investment unless I understand the answer to this simple question; Why the tribal following?

I need to ‘DYOR’!

Excellent stuff.

Good Grief!!

I'm not a Gamer and I'm learning almost exponentially!!

Just a simple investor looking for a return.

So for how long have you been invested?

That is so helpful.

Thank you.

No insider assertion of insider information intended. Just the chronology.

I actually reckon Rountree is, as I've said in a previous post, 'a tour de force'.

Someone is managing this development and he's been the Headman for ten years...nothing but respect.

I guess my main issue relates to the next phase of development...is this a one trick pony?

That's a serious investment question.

It looks to me like the future for the sp depends on franchise deals. Amazon was a great deal.

And he's expanding his global footprint.

Also generic development via GAW's excellent strategic product development plan.

This guy Rountree really knows his space and owns it...very impressive imo.

What impresses me most is that he's stepped into a Footsie 100 arena without care or intention. GAW just happened to arrive there almost incidentally.

Love it.

I love the idea that he publishes the bare minimum to satisfy what is a veracious investment community.

Greyw,

What's your view on the Amazon deal?

So our man Rountree bought per RNS dated 3/3/25:-

‘Price(s) and volume(s) Volume(s) purchased 205 Ordinary Shares £142.89 per Ordinary Share’.

Equals £29.3k

I have absolutely no problem with that. He’s investing in his own belief in a Company he’s been a part of for nearly ten years.

My only issue is the timing, the chronology.

He bought the shares two days before the GAW update.

Two days later, he released a VERY brief update suggesting that GAW’s results would look like this:-

‘…the Group's profit before tax for the 12 months to 1 June 2025 is estimated to be ahead of expectations.’

Immediately the sp rose by ca. 3%.

And Rountree had bought £29k in the Company he runs, a couple days before the announcement he might have had advanced info’ on prior to his investment.

I don’t care about that.

Because if the major shareholders don’t then why would I?

And they are serious investors who own ca. 87% of the Company.

I’ll tease you to find out. It’s not hard if I did!!!

I’ll do it for you if you want. I’ve already done it.

My issue is that there’s only ca. 13% PIs, the rest are Institutions.

Has anyone seen the shareholder register?

I guess more importantly, do any of you care?

I don’t do this environment, I’m a simple bloke who likes interesting investments.

And this is one.

Ignore me if you want. I think this investment has legs, that’s all.

The contracted parties are no longer contracted in any commercial sense.

It's like ferrets in a bag.

JH has to protect and defend his shareholder best interests...that's his raison d'etre.

It's also the reason he gets the big bucks, as do the Board.

And I reckon he will, on behalf of the shareholders, you know, us sad lot.

I reckon his track record shows that exactly what he'll do. Stay the course to self funding development.

Trust is everything; so hard to regain once lost.

I've made a fortune on this share and I'm still in.

This is truly stunning.

I can give unambiguous stats that can help investments decisions.

Do you guys know who own your business?

Do you know how many shares are owned by Rountree?

Do you know about the current business trajectory and how much money is involved?

More importantly, are you interested?

Please help me understand this closed community.

Because I'm a serious investor.

I reckon you don't care so I'll just go on, uninformed as to this closed environment.

I reckon I'll just have to go my own way.

Thanks for the help in helping you make money.

Because I'm in.

Bitter and twisted Straycat.

The best deals are created when everyone wants the same thing.

What we’ve got going on here in Iraq is a political maelstrom, both internally between ICG, APIKUR and KRG, and externally with Türkiye, Iran and USA.

I can’t see any common resolution that will include everything GKP want/need, given their unique position in the Region as a debt free independent IOC.

At a tactical level, and I hope I’m wrong, I still think the delinquent debt will be negotiated/compromised/kicked down the road in order for normal service to be resumed.

Which is eventually what must happen. Too much money at stake.

Because the ultimate prize of self-funding growth has to be the main event for GKP. In fact it’s the only event in Shaikan for GKP, given their own strategic pathway to 100k+ bopd.

I guess it’s down to the Board’s judgment as to what’s in the shareholders’ best interests.

Which is their primary duty as a Main Board.

FWIW, I currently have some belief in their judgment right now…but we’ll see.

I’m apparently ‘sin binned’ by the Bot because he can’t make an argument to support his outrageous claims but whenever he’s challenged by me nowadays, either him or his acolytes respond accordingly. Laughable.

Anyway, back on Planet Earth:-

‘So, make it $70 million I would prefer returned to shareholders! Way too much shareholder capital is deployed in unproductive assets. They won't be bold enough though... Pity.’

So what do GKP do for self funding growth in a debt free environment (which makes them uniquely placed in the region) if they’ve got no money to invest because they’ve given it all away?

Prudence Bot, prudence.

I don’t think planning for the future is the Bot’s long suit is it?

Just short term gain.

Unfortunately for the Bot, some of us have run significant businesses and understand strategic positioning. And we’re in it for the long term. And we’re prepared to ‘wait and see’.

There’s absolutely no need for shareholders to give up their potential self funding rewards over five years for short term gain.

Let’s just take sensible dividends and roll with the geopolitics for now.

You know...

Have you binned him?

I haven't.

He/ She/Bot reveals himself every time He/She/Bot posts.

On a more serious matter, what do you reckon about the impending dividend announcement?

I reckon 11p equivalent.

Thoughts?

What a load of tosh…

‘Yup. I still expect $30 million although I'd prefer them to pay $50 million and further reduce capital deployed.’

At the end of 2024, per 23/1/25 Op Up:-

‘May 2024 2024 year-end cash balance of $102 million (31 December 2023: $82 million) and no debt’.

It will be more by 20/3, perhaps $5-$10m more.

But to strip out nearly half of that in dividends, $50m per PUTUP’s preference, would be to deprive GKP of their ability to re-invest in the FDP (whatever it ends up looking like in its revised format) and is in general management terms childish. It’s also financially illiterate from a GKP Board perspective.

Specifically because of GKP’s unique debt free status.

Given the still uncertain position, I cannot see how JH would risk GKP’s debt free future, giving up that future to an uncertain time and making GKP as a hostage to geopolitical fortune.

$50m in dividends as a preference? Ridiculous.

Better to moderate dividends and give himself the latitude to respond to circumstances as they unfold.

It’s not a difficult proposition if you’re an LTH.

This guy Rountree is clearly a true tour de force. Quite obviously. And he’s kept his head down while getting on with the commerciality of his massively growing business. And he’s been around for ten years running the operation.

He’s not looking for Market fame or favour. That’s why his OpUp’s are so brief, so very general, and so tantalising. Brilliant.

If you haven’t worked it out by now (and you will have!), I’m not a gamer. But I am an investor in solid businesses with good management ethics and a strategic plan which is sustainable.

So I’m learning, quickly.

I have a question about the gaming platform and I’m looking for guidance:-

‘Update; Another six months in line with our operational plan that gave our passionate fans plenty of exciting opportunities to collect, build, paint and play with their Warhammer miniatures. We had a successful launch of the new edition of Age of Sigmar and the launch of the new edition of Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team continued our momentum. We thank our existing customers for their ongoing support and welcome new customers, far and wide, to what we think is the best hobby in the world.’

Recently launched new edition of Age of Sigmar and new(?) Kill Team…are these interesting and approved new developments by Games Workshop officionados?;

‘● Core gross margin has decreased from 69.4% to 67.5%. As discussed earlier, the charge to inventory provision increased as some of our new product releases sold to below planned levels. Design costs include amortisation of capitalised development costs, which are aligned with the sales profile of new release product volumes. This cost has increased as we launched more new products in the period.’

Same point phrased in a financial perspective…’as some of our new product releases sold to below planned levels.’ Hence the stock write down in the Half Year financial statement. No biggy, only £1.2m provision. A rounding error in the context of the overall performance.

Hence the previous question in another recent post about new products and their potential success in this new WAG arena…

Btw, I’m asking as someone who might want to throw a lot more money at this share, so I’m looking for as much gaming technical advice as you want to offer about the product offer.

Straycat the technophobe.

Obviously I'm a newbie to this share.

But thanks Meconopsis and vulture1.

Excellent!

Reads like there may be serious opinions out there.

I have my own too.

‘Peel Hunt noted positive momentum is further fuelled by the recent (10 December) agreement with Amazon (AMZN:NASDAQ) on the creative guidelines to adapt the Warhammer 40K universe into films and television series, together with associated merchandising rights.

The broker raised its full year sales and pre-tax profit forecasts by 5% to £600 million and 9% to £240 million, respectively.

Consensus pre-tax profit forecasts currently sit at £225.5 million, according to Refinitv data.’

This was on 5/3/25.

I reckon that’s an understatement.

So according to Half Year 2024 unaudited accounts and bearing in mind PH’s forecasts:-

1) Six month revenue £306m (£248m), +23%. This suggests annual revenues of at least £600m and possibly more like £625m+;

2) Equally, PH’s £240m full year PTP is also possibly understated and may be as high as £250m+;

3) IF the Amazon deal works out, then all bets are off imo.

Already loving this share and the risk attached to it.

Because if Amazon doesn’t perform with the new deal then the sp will drift down accordingly.

553 stores eh? And I thought retail was dead!!

It’s also almost incredible that:-

‘● Foreign exchange differences - we don't actively manage foreign exchange rates and we will continue to report the impact on our results.’

Why not buy currency forward to protect your position?

Love this Company already…they’re just laser focussed on their growing community of followers and the pleasure they can give them.

RNS updates are normally brief and general with no real financial detail unless it’s the half year statement which is an FCA requirement.

The market doesn’t seem to be their motive for being…it’s almost that they’ve arrived on the big stage by accident.

Except I don’t believe that for one minute.

There’s some smart stuff going on here.

Hi LG,

Take your point, but this agreement sunk in early 2023 due to a supposed 'force majeure' (earthquake) which happened shortly after the French determination of Turkish culpability.

And the ITP closed.

This is dull as ditch, but stick with it if you can bear to.

An amendment dated 19/9/2010 was made to a long standing agreement between Türkiye and Iraq relating to the ITP as below:-

‘This Amendment shall be valid for 15 years as from entering into force. The Sides start negotiating the contract conditions upon request of any of the Sides two years before its termination date. In the case where there is no need for new amendment/agreement this Amendment shall be considered as extended for an additional 5 years period of time, unless a termination note is sent in writing by one of the two Sides to the other 1 (one) year before the expiration date of this Amendment. Done in Baghdad on Nineteenth of September 2010 in two original copies in the Turkish, Arabic and English languages. In case of disagreement in the interpretation of the three texts the English text shall prevail. ti I For the Government of For the Government of the Republic of Iraq the Republic of Turkey Dr. Hussain Al-Shahristani Minister of Oil Taner Minister of Energy and Natural Resources’.

In summary, it looks very much like this contract could terminate in September this year.

This would enable the KRG and Türkiye to restart their relationship outside of ICG influence.

Let’s not forget that the KRG/IOC contracts have been deemed legal by the highest court in Iraq.

Put bluntly, why would JH settle for an APIKUR settlement which was at the very least questionable, if he could negotiate more favourable terms directly with the KRG?

Clearly the issues of delinquent debt recovery and guaranteed future payments MUST be dealt with.

That said, why would he relax into an agreement that Caggins III negotiated on behalf of eight IOC members, none of whom were debt free and therefore have different and varied settlement ambitions?

‘TRADING UPDATE

Games Workshop Group PLC announces that trading in January and February has been ahead of expectations, with strong trading across both the core business and licensing. As a result, the Group's profit before tax for the 12 months to 1 June 2025 is estimated to be ahead of expectations.’

I’ll tell you what, Kevin Rountree isn’t big on elaboration is he? Or numbers!

So I’ve looked at the half year operating statement to June 2024 and this business, on the face of it, reads like a phenomenon.

Revenues up, profits up, minimal debt which seems completely stable and FCF impressive.

I guess the big question is whether Rountree and Harrison are able to maintain the momentum.

‘Our business culture is built on a few important values. Key among them is humility. So, while we are very proud of our achievements, we remain grounded, pragmatic and ego free. We know through experience that, at Games Workshop, speculation is unwise and extrapolation is a fool's game. We will therefore continue to stay focused on managing the business under all scenarios. So far, so good.’

So what’s coming down the games pipeline?

I’m significantly invested now, but this bb is pretty inactive and I’d like interaction.

What do you guys think the future holds in terms of new developments?

Does anyone read that drivel that PUTUP puts out to validate his analytical paralysis in the face of his previous misrepresentations anymore?

His mispredictions are legend.

He's lost his pace (and his place).