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I don’t see what the problem is. What’s wrong with everyone? Don’t you see?
All GKP have to do is to navigate the following:-
1) Re-negotiate a PSC which is not currently recognised by the ICG;
2) Redefine the parameters of the FDP which will inevitably change during the re-negotiating process;
3) Somehow arrange a payment plan which enables self-funding growth AND is reliable/trustworthy;
4) Lean into a new set of politicians that can/will/probably won’t be honest to their word!.
Don’t understand the problem. What problem??????
Jesus. I hope JH is being well paid (which I’m sure he is btw…really hope so).
Because he’s got a real job on his hands.
I’m pretty ballsy, and I wouldn’t fancy it.
Yet here we are.
Don’t you just love this share?
Unfortunately 'moping' at home.
Just back from two weeks in Dubai and about to go out again to southern Europe, seeking the sun.
Because I'm a narcissist.
Do it a lot. And as a Brit, which I am, you should understand my need.
Anyhow, my larger point was about the Board and the way it's conducting its affairs right now.
Because that's about shareholder confidence in their direction of travel.
And no, it's not just about whether they should squander precious cash resources in rewarding loyalty...it's also about where they go from here.
Got a view?
'Were there questions in your ramble?'
What the f*ck's wrong with you?
I was opening a discussion about whether the Board were /are heading in the right direction.
And I'm interested on other bbs' opinions.
Don't like that do you?
ValueS may be supportive, but the rest of us just need to get to grips with our current environment...and looking for an informed debate.
In my view, capital returns to shareholders would be plain stupid right now given the current position GKP finds itself in.
I note you posted your opinion at 23.09 last night...what's the weather like in the US right now?
If YOU were running GKP right now, the very last thing you'd be doing is returning capital to shareholders..
GKP have some difficult terrain to traverse.
And giving up cash to shareholders right now would be a derogation of duty.
Cash conservation in the current climate is king.
Cash amounts to survival and eventual growth, pending decisions outside of GKP's control or remit.
Either way, as shareholders we need to understand its value in the Balance Sheet right now.
You play what's in front of you.
And what's in front of us is change.
We just need to accommodate that proposition without being afraid.
You're squealing like a stuck pig, skewered by your own inability to address the key question of whether the Board is behaving responsibly given the current commercial climate.
jjj is right, but it's gong to be a bb of one.
I'm only interested in the larger debate.
Are the Board behaving in shareholders' best interests...
I specifically asked for 'Thoughts?' on my take on the Board's position, as I see it.
You clearly have no thoughts on the matter.
Terrific contribution to a live time issue which will inevitably have an influence on current and future GKP valuation...well done.
First of all, the 'name' is Straycat', not Stracat'.
Second of all, what are you talking about?
Who said I don't have details of the PSC?
Third of all, get involved in the debate about the Board's position in the context of current issues.
That is the point of my original post.
BB,
You're not arguing the main point are you?
Just obfuscating.
So let's say you're right and the contract ends in 2038 (and I don't believe that to be the case)...so what?
Argue the point For Flip's Sake!!!
Other language is available if required...
Can we please do a little analysis in the context of Board responsibility?
As per the FYR and JH’s summary of ITP closure:-
1) ‘…we suspended the ordinary annual dividend’;
2) Ref capex and costs; ‘…with our aggregate run rate expected to remain at or below $6 million in 2024’;
3) Sales resumed in July by trucking to local markets;
4) Sales tracking at 43k bopd @$25 currently;
5) ‘At current local sales levels we are cash generative, with our current low gross production breakeven of c.22,000 bopd providing downside protection’;
6) ‘…GKP is currently owed $151 million net’ (although I reckon that delinquent debt will potentially be compromised for the greater good! N.B. hope I’m wrong);
7) ‘With the resumption of exports and the normalisation of payments, we would consider incremental investments to realise Shaikan’s potential.’;
The key words there are ‘consider’ and ‘incremental’.
And that’s JH’s negotiating position, i.e. these are choices GKP will make whatever the ICG think or say.
Otherwise known as make your mind up because we’ve got shareholders to consider.
Because we’re debt free!!!!
People without money (aka the rest of the APIKUR members) will always be susceptible to financial intimidation.
But not GKP.
Oh yes, and we’re sat on an oil field with a twenty eight year expiration date.
GKP will end up negotiating its own outcome, and I’m good with that.
Thoughts?
Where have you come from Alex, because you're right on my page!
Run the numbers at 50k bopd, or more significantly at 90k bopd, all self-funded, and the debate about delinquent debt disappears into the larger commercial ether. Recovering $151m should happen...obviously.
But it is irrelevant in the greater scheme of things. Simply petty cash.
And as for the revised PSC, which will inevitably happen now, it just needs to be managed by the Board to make sure that it suits us humble shareholders.
The Golden chalice is self funded growth.
But it will obviously be a decision taken at GKP level.
Not by a strange amalgam of APIKUR artificial construct, with their own disparate financial needs.
And don't get me started on Myles, their nominated negotiator.
' It's like you love to fight windmills, straw ones at that.'
That Don Quixote analogy would have worked much better if you'd tied it to the actual quote, which was 'tilting at windmills' not 'fighting' them.
And I don't know about the reference to 'straw'; not sure Cervantes ever mentioned that!!
Funny though, on several levels, some at your expense.
PUTUP,
Unless I misread your post, you're in danger of taking my position on this.
What's wrong with you?
To be clear, Myles is definitely not the answer.
The bigger question is how/why/under what auspices was he appointed.
He looks/feels like a guy looking for a political future, and good luck with that.
Doesn't help my GKP position one jot.
Nor will it.
Good luck if he makes into Congress though.
And I wish him well.
But he ain't helping us.
"Patience still required".
In the end, the bet is on the Board and their ability to navigate these troubled waters.
And patience is obviously critical.
Along with confidence in GKP's relative position.
One thing's for sure; APIKUR will not provide the answer.
Pretty confident about that...
This won't be settled in the courts.
This will be settled by heavyweight and painful negotiation.
But we sit well in this environment because of the Re-structure; thank you LTHs. Genuinely.
Lots of pain I can only imagine.
And Caggins III won't be leading it. He'll be filling his pants in his cot with a very red pushing face.
Who the hell voted him in?
I doubt it was a vote. How could it be?
Business is business.
Not talking to GKP would be stupid if you're part of the ICG.
Off the record, in smoked filled rooms, without natural consequence or reproach.
Please tell me you know how these things work!!!
Sen,
You might be onto something there.
Contractually, pretty sure JH couldn't make representations to the ICG about re-negotiating contracts well established with the KRG.
But the ICG will almost certainly have been in contact with GKP to have those 'chats' and 'off piste'.
Why not? It's a significant field which is self-funded. And debt free. And capable of producing 100k bopd.
If I was representing the ICG, I would be pretty interested in that proposition.
Wouldn't you?
Don't forget from the ICG perspective the basic principle is to divide and rule...in this case APIKUR.
I reckon there's a sh*tload of stuff going on behind closed doors.
Because it matters to all participants.
MoUs are just an agreement to agree, without any real legal status.
BUT economics will eventually outweigh politics...it just takes time for the politicians to realise this simple economic truth.
The ITP will re-open because it's in every party's interest that it does.
The rest is about negotiating the terms. And that will affect the timescale.
APIKUR have no place at that table. Their amalgam is too weak, too disparate and too different in terms of the independent members' financial structure.
However, JH does have muscle , because GKP sit in a different space where they can control their own destiny due to their chequered and re-structured financial history and the benevolence of LTHs.
As a consequence, while JH cannot influence geopolitical affairs, he can at least determine GKP's response to those outcomes. While still making money.
Hopefully he'll do that in the best interests of us lot.
Given his actions over the last three plus years I have confidence in his motives and judgment.
Until I don't.
Where to begin?
1) Why do Americans insist on expressing their credentials by their third generation heritage...how insecure is that?;
2) What are his credentials to lead the APIKUR 'resistance'? Certainly not his Congressional contacts who are, at the very least, peripheral;
3) Who was responsible for his appointment and why?;
4) When do his Mum and Dad feed him his Farley's Rusks and milk before changing his nappy and putting him to bed?
So naive..
APIKUR is not involved in this negotiation at any meaningful level, and Caggins III does not have the gravitas to influence the outcome in any meaningful way.