Member Info for Straycat

Insults aside, my point is that there's another side to this negotiation which HAS TO involve KRG involvement.

It's simply not going to be about what the ICG wants..

The Kurds have a vested interest and massive part to play over the coming months and they will not be ignored.

Too much at stake.

‘IF the KRG and Turkey did manage to cobble together a new pipeline deal, whereby KRI crude is transported to storage facilities at Ceyhan port for export, what do readers think would or might be the reactions of the Iraq government?

I'm not interested in a slanging match - most know of my views and they haven't altered, but I'm genuinely interested in what people think the range of possibilities might include'...etc.etc, all about what the ICG will do next.

Once again from the Bot boys, it’s a joke.

BB is stipulating a range options which only incorporate ICG responses.

This completely ignores the KRG position.

Which might be that the relationships they have embraced for many years with significant IOC’s are worth protecting, even at the expense of short term loss, including renegotiated contractual arrangements AND renegotiated financial reparations over time.

Realpolitik will always out.

Not an expert on Iraqi/KRG geo-politics, don't pretend to be.

But as an interested observer, I really don't reckon these 'negotiations' are going anywhere.

Which takes me right back to my interest in what JH can see and what he's going to do about it in the best interests of GKP shareholders...us.

It's June.

September beckons...

Troy Tempest was my hero...didn't he have a sexual interest in a fish woman called Maria?

Tight a*se as I recall. Well she would have wouldn't she, being puppetry and all and probably being made out of wood?

Simpler times.

Now we have to deal with Bots the like of PUTUP.

BP should be buying back for cancellation.

It shrinks the Common Share base and asks the question about whether BP is investable or not at these SP levels.

But the Board are not buying back for cancellation are they?

This a judgment call about whether the Management are confident in their future or not.

I think not...

I reckon that's about right, in current circumstances and poo, plus $119m as at 19th Jan, less $25m in dividends.

= ($6m* 12) + $119m -$25m. =$167m.

Less capex @ca.($7m * 12) = $84m.

Total FCF on that analysis is $167m-$84m. = $83m for current year.

Dividend time in June results...another $25m.

The framework for GKP will transform in the interim and these forecasts will be irrelevant by then imo.

You're on fire right now C*ck8ye...Love the calling out.

Truth is that GKP has a spectacular future ahead IF the Board can manage the current turmoil.

And I think they can.

BB's definitely living in the past.

Obviously.

Not even sure of his credentials.

Then doesn't matter...now matters and GKP's response to current turmoil.

And their response.

I don’t know that this dispute between the ICG and the KRG is going to be resolved anytime soon. Doesn’t read like it anyway.

But what I do see is a resolution between interested parties looking to make money.

And that doesn’t include the politics of Iraq’s complicated relationship with Kurdistan which is convoluted and compromised by legal judgments in Iraq’s Supreme Court which stipulate that the KRG have acted in accordance with the constitution…the IOCs are safeguarded as a consequence.

I keep coming back to the same conclusion; that JH has a duty to engage in a negotiation with the KRG that protects GKP’s interests after September and protects GKP’s proposition of self-funding growth with payment and delinquent debt assurances.

So absurd.

Well said C...

PUTUP's agenda is clear as day.

B8ll8cks to the future, let's rape and pillage today.

A joke to serious investors.

I don’t know about anyone else, but the more I read from:- BASVIEWS/KURDISTANWATCH/RUDAW/KURDISTAN 24 etc;

the more confused I get.

Some simple facts for context:-

1) GKP are in the money and in particular are debt free, which makes them unique within the APIKUR community;

2) That financial independence gives the Board a latitude not extended to their chosen affiliate members, an APIKUR membership which is NOT legally binding, just voluntary;

3) It is possible for JH to navigate a way to self-funding growth including the KRG and special payment terms which enable 100k bopd. A five year plan.

If he wasn’t investigating this opportunity, he would be negligent in his duty to protect his responsibilities to shareholders' best interests.

And he has a track record of protecting his shareholders’ best interests over the last several years since his tenure in 2021.

‘Nope. Happy (ish) to hold for circa 15% returns (my discount rate) or probably a bit less return given the stock is a bit expensive vs my model currently although not enough to sell here. Hence my opinion of "Hold".’

It’s a joke really.

Some little while ago I was engaged in an esoteric debate with PUTUP about risk and reward.

He insisted that the appropriate reward for investing in GKP was 20% annually; that at a time when GKP was full guns blazing via the ITP export facility and Capex coffers full with FCF for re-investment.

I was arguing that a more appropriate annual return would be 15% to enable re-investment. And I still do.

As for the Bot (PUTUP), it just flip flops with events. Of course it does…it has no view of its own apart from its briefing from elsewhere.

Do you think it’s modelled on Kier Starmer and his relationship with his mentor Tony Blair?

Ah, Inv,

You know my views on cancellation of buybacks.

I'm pretty heavily invested here and I agree.

I also think this is a classic takeover proposition , given the current management calibre..

Numbers will be big though...

Even if PUTUP is real (which I doubt given his AI posts), his position is completely untenable given where GKP finds itself and its responses to adverse trading circumstances.

Doesn't matter whether you agree with JH's proposed forward plan in the current climate or not...he's definitely working in shareholders best interests.

PUTUP certainly isn't.

APIKUR is a busted flush. Why?

Because the eight Companies involved in this non-binding amalgam have entirely different ambitions and each one has its own Balance Sheet constraints.

Apart from GKP each and every one of the participants has debt, in varying degrees that need covering…constantly. In management terms, it’s a daily reminder of the mortality of the constituent Board members of those Companies and their shareholder duties.

As I say, GKP is unique in that it is debt free and able to make its own decisions as to its own future without reference to outside influence. Including Caggins III who has his own Senate agenda.

APIKUR in general, and Caggins in particular, are NOT the sole arbiters of the resumption of oil exports via the IPT. There is no binding agreement between the participants like the Three Musketeers, ‘All for one, one for all!!’

This is a discretionary arrangement which will last as long as it suits all members. And if it doesn’t, it is doomed to failure.

And it won’t suit all Members, and probably least of all GKP.

On 17/9, IF Türkiye have renounced their commitment to IPT continuation and have given one year notification (which we cannot know) then they will be free to re-instate arrangements stepping back years with the KRG and their cosy settlements.

IF this is so, which would make perfect political sense given ICG intransigence to a sensible settlement with the KRG and Türkiye’s economic oil dynamic, then I reckon JH will establish his own platform for self-funding growth on an existing model with the KRG.

Modified to accommodate guaranteed payments and a commitment to delinquent debt recovery.

Just hypothesising…based on Realpolitik and JH's instincts for his shareholder base.

It all depends on his skill set.

And I reckon he has that ability to manage what's in front of him.

Like he has for the last years since the ITP closure.

Dates and food for thought for Iraqi palates:-

1) 17/9 and the end of the contract between Türkiye and the ICG;

2) 2/10 GKP RNS reference new arrangements for resumption of international exports.

On my wish list so long as ANY re-agreement has built in, cast iron, guarantees for future payments.

And of course an assurance about the $151m delinquent debt and its recovery.

Pure conjecture, but based on the principles of Realpolitik...

Y/E FCF should read $102m...dyslexia will always out!

Apologies.

The Y/E FCF was $201m.

By the Y/E RNS in March it had grown to $119m.

Less the dividend announcement of $25m.

Means that the FCF at that time was ca. $95m post dividend.

Projecting that FCF profile, by 2025 Y/E GKP will have achieved additional FCF of between &60m -$90m depending on oil prices, and assuming no resolution to the current embargo on oil exports via the ITP.

So, even in extremis, GKP will achieve an FCF of $155m-$185m BEFORE any interim dividend decisions.

GKP does not face any cash flow crises because of its unique debt free status.

I reckon GKP are going to float their own boat with the KRG post Türkiye’s termination of ITP contract with the ICG. I reckon that trigger has already been pulled.

Only because it’s because that’s what make simple sense from Türkiye’s point of view.

It doesn’t matter either way.

In any case there are more dividends coming up during the year as I see it.

Could be...I certainly don't have a view into the future.

Just my view.

There’s no way the ICG will want to pay the KRG’s debts based on a legally binding contract (affirmed by the highest Iraqi Court) between the IOCs and the KRG.

Why would they?

What they might do is to try and negotiate it away in a revised agreement which makes ‘payback’ dependent on performance and some small financial upfront incentives.

Like $16 pb and some small monthly payback which does nothing to cover the costs of ITP closure.

Tough stuff I know, but the only other option is to crack on as now until late September.

I believe Türkiye has already given one year’s notice of termination which is effective from late September this year.

I can’t establish any facts on that with any confidence because whatever’s happened has happened behind closed doors between Türkiye and the ICG.

But it would make complete commercial sense for Türkiye to protect their future interests, particularly since those interests are so critical to their financial wellbeing.

And then they would re-negotiate with the KRG, if they haven't already.

Remember JH’s words in his Year End statement:-

‘While the date of the re-opening of the ITP remains uncertain, management have assessed a re-opening date of October 2025 as being reasonable.’

Also JH has confirmed his contact with the KRG per his Y/E end commentary.

I reckon that’s because JH has no confidence in APIKUR and their revisionist ambitions because GKP isn’t governed by the same financial constraints.

IF that’s right, then GKP are clearly better off making their own deal with the KRG based on cast iron financial payment surety…

Not even sure how JH is going to do that even if he has the will, but if he does then he re-opens the window to self-funding success on GKP’s unique platform of debt free status; all thanks to pre-Re-structure investors.

Obviously.