Member Info for Straycat

It's Friday and I've just paid a serious tax bill via my accountants.

Ouch.

So I'm being frivolous. The weekend beckons.

Just supposing I have another £100k to throw at this share.

What would you do?

A tick means yes, but you have to give reasons.

Otherwise I want to know the counters.

What it tells you is that BDO have taken a view on the delinquent debt after consultation with the Board.

Who are directly accountable for the information they provide.

I grant you it's not a perfect system for financial oversight but it's all BDO have got.

So in the end it all boils down to whether you trust this Board and their leader to tell the truth.

If BDO didn't/couldn't rely on the information provided then that would result in qualified accounts for 2023.

But that's not going to happen.

Because JH has played with a straight bat all the way down the line...

BB,

You actually don't understand financial accounts do you?

In the half year financial statement, GKP made a $17m impairment allowance for delinquent debt. That treatment will continue unless and until that delinquent debt is repaid. And if not, it will be progressively written out of GKP's Balance Sheet over the next couple of years. See note 11 to the half year statement.

For God's sake...

'Maybe soon this dog of a stock will get some bite, or maybe not.'

So defeatist. Quit then.

I've tracked your avco given what you've posted previously. ..I'm that sad.

You're in the money. Not the money you wanted, but including dividends still a tidy profit.

If you don't believe then get out.

The inverse is true for me...I do believe so I'm doubling down and re-investing at these prices.

Who knows?

Certainly not me.

Hope is not the answer unless you've never run a business.

Belief in your core business fundamentals is the answer.

And the confidence to see them through the hard times.

I get tired of bb ditherers spouting propaganda because they're afraid of change.

Embrace change because It's real and it's now. And it's difficult.

But it is essentially binary. Stand your ground or yield.

There's no escaping JH's responsibilities as to what he's facing.

The only question should be how he he deals with it.

Whatever he does, he shouldn't rely on hope. What a load of tosh.

He should trust his business model.

And manage himself accordingly.

The re-negotiations will not be easy.

But he needs to keep his eye on the 100k bopd prize.

Because the GKP self funding model makes real commercial sense even in a revised agreement.

BB,

For a man who can't recognise the difference between an invoice and a payment i.e. the P&L and the Balance Sheet (as you will recall last time I embarrassed you) it's pretty rich for you to procrastinate about how BDO present GKP's accounts.

Ridiculous.

Itsa,

You're a trader. And a bad one by the looks of it.

But anyway, I'm not.

You're barking up the wrong tree.

Come on P,

You've missed me haven't you?

But you've got to make an argument that flies. And denying basic accounting practice isn't it.

Otherwise there'll be others more intelligent than me who'll come to challenge you....

Retirementman,

This is a risk share.

And I am certainly no GKP share guru.

I'll be buying back in shortly...but that's no recommendation!!!

No it's not. The value of assets are a benchmark as to core value.

Not the only one, but certainly helpful. Updates are also signals.

But You just ignore the Balance Sheet as as a snapshot with nothing to offer to investors....you're wrong.

It's all we've got to make serious investment decisions along with the updates.

Dismissing the financial accounts of a publicly quoted business is always going to be contentious if you're a real investor.

So you're now arguing Armageddon?

Really?

Is that all you've got?

P, you've got to step into the new reality which is that GKP's world has turned and they need to adapt accordingly.

And that means adjustments to take GKP forward...not backwards.

'The fixed asset register is illusionary'.

Of course they own what they've bought. Don't be stupid. Otherwise it wouldn't be represented in their published accounts.

You have a major disconnect with what investors rely upon to invest, and your own particular take on what the numbers mean in your own dystopian world.

For £ read $...apologies.

As I write, the sp is sitting @104p. That values GKP @ a paltry £230m. The Fixed Asset register alone is valued @ £463m.

And GKP have no debt.

And they have a self-funding plan to 100k bopd.

Given free rein, they have already established their production credentials to 55k by reference to their own RNS numbers.

Just run those numbers @55k bopd and even $60-70pb under current contractual terms.

No wonder JH is taking care to mothball the business during this difficult time that he cannot properly influence because of the geopolitics involved. The infrastructure is being safeguarded due to defensive capex measures.

Tough job. Top Man.

And don’t even know him. But credit where credit’s due.

Jon Ferrier would never have taken JH’s position. He didn’t have the credentials and was motivated by self interest above all else as far as I can see.

If I’m right, Jon Harris will do what’s in the shareholders’ best interests and press on to 100k bop, all of it self funded.

If I’m wrong, well then I’m going to lose money.

Because I’m about to buy into the sell.

Don’t you love this share?

BS,

No problem.

We all f*ck up P, it comes with the territory...

And as shareholders, given JH's dividend policy imperative, we'll all be in the money.

And that's the key.

Apologies for tapping the wrong keyboard symbol...nob.

That's a just cash flow argument.

Whether GKP settle @ three or even six month payments it doesn't matter even though it might inhibit the FDP for a few months.

But GKP MUST get an agreement which guarantees payments for future investment. And that's the hard bit.

Nor does it matter whether GKP retrieve delinquent debt...not in the grand scheme of things though GKP must fight for that $150m.

What matters is what GKP can make by sticking with the self funding plan to 100k bopd.

Just run the numbers over the next few years. It really doesn't matter what realistic oil price you use, on current lifting costs GKPall make a lot of money.

And as shareholders, given JH's dividend policy imperative,

And that's the key.

'Don't want to pay big cost oil amounts? Then don't spend so much on field development capex and be satisfied with limited, if any, production growth.'

Whatever the revisions to the PSC, the critical issue will be cost recovery through reliable cash flow i.e. regular and reliable payments.

Otherwise self funding growth to 100k bopd doesn't work.

The delinquent debt does need to be resolved in the equation, one way or another.

But in the greater scheme of things it's not a critical feature. Just run the numbers to 100k bopd over the next five years and see...

It'll just be part of the negotiation.

However, GKP's position is much stronger i.e. less reliant on Balance Sheet considerations than other APIKUR MEMBERS.

We have no debt.

We are in a good negotiating place though we'll have to take account of other APIKUR MEMBERS' needs...hmm...

Hey P,

The CRP is a ledger and nothing more. Obvious.

The critical issue is one as you've described as 'untimely cost recovery'.

That's JH's job. Nothing more , nothing less.

Big bucks.

But given that, the investment decision is pretty simple.

Do you believe (or do you not) that the management team can hold the line?

Can the strategic plan to self funding growth stand the test?

I say yes.