Member Info for Straycat

You're irrelevant right now PUTUP; so am I.

The youngster traders are having their day, and good luck to them.

Won't change the fundamentals though...

ST,

Have you modelled financial potential to 85k at a range of oil prices and the profits/cash generated?

If so then you will see how little $151m matters in the grand scheme of things.

Don't misunderstand me; we are owed that money and we must be paid.

But in the context of a macro settlement approach CRITICALLY concerning a reliable and credible payment structure, GKP may have to sacrifice immediate repayment of delinquent debt. It might be phased, it might even have to be written off in part or in whole.

But don't forget, its full or partial repayment is reliant on re-starting production.

And that can't happen unless the IOCs can be sure that they are going to be re-imbursed according to the PSCs.

Hope you're right Jake, really do.

In isolation GKP's position is clear and unambiguous. It's debt free, it's shored up its finances and can stand its ground until the Board and us shareholders are confident about the payment landscape going forward.

My concern is that despite the hardball APIKUR rhetoric, what you've got are five Members in toto, each with their own commercial models. And none of the other Members have the cushion of a debt free Balance Sheet.

So when push comes to shove, are they going to stand shoulder to shoulder when they know that exporting the oil through the pipeline is their only inevitable future anyway?

The danger is that cracks will appear in APIKUR's negotiating position as the heat intensifies (and it will) for the IOC's to re-commence pumping for export.

For me, GKP should hold strong, because at any sensible oil price (of whatever denomination) and if they can get a new arrangement which regularises cashflow, then GKP can pursue its self-funding plan for growth to 85k bopd and beyond.

But without that, GKP is just another tradeable share that has no real development potential without massive external finance.

And who would invest if payments were not reliable?

While I care deeply about the delinquent $151m, it is nowhere near as important as re-setting future payments in a dependable form. Any future performance analysis suggests that $151m is very small beer in the context of 85k bopd supported by reliable payments.

That's not to say GKP shouldn't pursue that debt with vigour...they should. And must.

APIKUR should hold strong, but inevitably there will be compromises...I just hope JH is able to protect GKP's interests in the coming negotiations.

And I'm not sure that's possible. Compromise will be required. Between APIKUR and the other negotiating parties and then between the APIKUR Members.

But in the end, the oil will flow.

Matthew Zais (V.P. of GKN) in his half hour interview with Rudaw:-

The World is watching Iraq right now. Is Iraq an investable destination?'

He goes on to push his hardline agenda that PSCs need to be honoured whether it's via the KRG or the ICG. Otherwise the pipeline will remain dry...no oil will be pumped into it.

The Members of APIKUR are GKP, Genel, DNO, HKN and ShaMaran.

GKP are debt free.

However, their partners are all dragging debt to a greater or lesser extent. There is nothing wrong with debt funding for development. But right now that puts pressure on their finances because their cashflow is being choked. And therefore that will inevitably prove a factor in their ability to resist the pressure to start pumping export oil again.

If you take a look at the H/Y results for all APIKUR Members, cashflow has suffered massively. Like GKP they are all trying to mitigate that issue, with varying degrees of success.

But unlike GKP, the other Members' Balance Sheets are, to one extent or another, debt dependent.

So my questions are:-

1) Can APIKUR remain unified in their insistence that agreements need to be honoured in all respects; back payments, and regularised ongoing payments; and

2) At what point they can all agree that those terms of re-engagement are satisfied?

Inevitably the pressure on all other sides in this negotiation will be for AKIPUR to yield...and maybe their shareholders too!!

So like a league system then; Premiership; Championship et al.

With different terms according to commercial relevance/importance/potential performance.

Because in your example, A B C and D would be Premiership IOCs, E and F would be second tier and the rest would hope to aspire to better terms depending on what they achieved on/in the field of play (to stretch an analogy).

Divide and rule then.

Well I suspect that once the chips are down, the IOCs with most potential will cut loose and look after themselves first, last and only...not what APIKUR formed for, but it's a cruel world and it'll end up being a self preservation society imo.

You're a very complicated man TM!!

SC.

TM,

Please tell me that rant is not directed at me!!!

'Whom Tyler'?

'Helsenberg'?

You okay TM?

In the end every APIKUR member has a responsibility to their individual shareholders.

So each Board will have to evaluate what that means in the context of that perspective.

And those considerations will be different for each Company.

In my experience, self-interest usually prevails.

There'll be a form of words. A joint statement of renewed commitment to the cause.

But 'Gun Boat Diplomacy' demands that this will be settled on ICG terms...because we have no power apart from our ability to perform in our best interests, i.e. the best interests of our shareholders.

And as a significant shareholder I don't mind saying, I want the export oil to flow...

For me, APIKUR are now centre-stage.

On at least three counts:-

1) Will that dissociated Group of IOC's with different P&L/Balance Sheet dynamics have the balls to present a common face and stand firm for new arrangements securing reliable on-going payments? Maybe;

2) Will they re-start production on the back of those new arrangements, given that their receipts are dependent on that production? Maybe;

3) Or will they capitulate/collapse under the weight of that short term pressure to re-start production and just ignore the past commercial abuse?

Who'd want to be JH right now? Sure as sh*t not me.

Pedant.

Have a good week-end.

As an aside, when those shares matured in April this year the sp was 136p.

But our esteemed CFO waited until 27/9 and then sold his nil-cost options @ 101p.

And you wonder why the major shareholders are questioning his judgment...

So IW joined the Board on13/1/2020.

On 28/4/2020 he was awarded 733871 NIL -COST OPTIONS valued @ 74p. These matured and were available to trade three years later on 28/4/2023.

Irritating...particularly as there are serious shareholder concerns as to his competence.

What's also interesting is that IW doesn't instill any full-on shareholder support.

He's failed to get the requisite 80% confidence vote from shareholders at the latest AGM.

But he's still coining it...

Here's the thing.

Whatever else happens over the coming months, the oil will flow.

And eventually there will be a resolution at a geopolitical level.

That can be the only and inevitable outcome.

And the IOCs will have to review their individual positions as a consequence of changed contractual arrangements.

Because that will be the inevitable outcome. The rules of engagement will change.

The problem is each of the IOCs have their own financial constraints.

For debt-free GKP that amounts to some security as to future payment reliability. Simple as that.

But other members are not in the same place. And debt is a burden as an IOC in the region right now. Cos no-one's getting paid.

The big question is whether APIKUR is genuinely committed to the cause of securing agreements as a group of producers.

I suspect that when push comes to shove, each IOC will bow to its own shareholder needs, and that commercially communal spirit will collapse under the weight of real time commercial pressure to restart exports via the pipeline...

One of the many joys of high risk investments.

But where does that take GKP?

It's rock solid, it has no debt and it's sitting on a proven oil field which is capable of producing volumes on a daily basis which other oil companies can only dream of.

And it's recalibrated its performance to deal with the adverse conditions it finds itself in right now.

It also has a plan for self-funding growth. GKP just needs to make sure that it gets paid regularly. It will take care of the rest. That's the only help it needs...to get paid when the money's due and not have to look over its shoulder for the next payment.

Sooner or later, idiots like me are going to pile back in.

The only question is when...

That is a great analysis P.

Of a very complicated position that JH and the Board have to navigate.

Currently I'm of the view that if GKP press on and reach $40k+bobd locally , then there's a new temporary model that works and carries us through the temporary problem until the Grown Ups (acronyms) settle their differences.

in the interim, I can only see I slide in the sp....

Which is not good for my investment plan wrgt GKP.!!!

Hey P,

I'll tell you why I ask; I'm very interested in putting more money in. Proper money.

I'm such a sad tale...it's not about the belief. I have that in spades.

It's about the re-entry point.

Thoughts?

Otherwise you're just another XL Bully dog that needs dealing with...and I will.

You're not buying that are you P?

I'm (P)leading with you!!

There was more content, but I can't be bothered...sorry about the 'W'.

Don't worry, I get back to my dissimulation of your ridiculous position.

In fact I don't need to bother...just read the latest P&L and stop theorising for God's sake!!.